Wednesday, September 19, 2018

WTI Spkes; Bakken Bellwether Operators Climb -- September 19, 2018

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Weekly petroleum report:
  • oil price called the crude oil build yesterday, a massive build / a mammoth build which resulted in the price of oil ... drum roll ... staying flat -- see below
EIA data today?
  • a massive drawdown of crude oil inventories: dropped 2.1 million bbls -- on this news? WTI spikes to $71.44 -- Bakken bellwether stocks -- NOG up 0.85% and OAS up 1.7%
  • US crude oil inventories now well below the 400-million-bbl threshold, at 394.1 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventories now about 3% below the five-year average for this time of year
  • refineries are only operating at 95.4% of their capacity -- think about those two data points
  • gasoline production and distillate fuel production changes unremarkable
  • the remarkable data point regarding refined product produced? jet fuel produced was up 5% compared to same four-week period last year
  • gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million bbls 
But, wow, look at this, gasoline demand, nice but I can't explain it:

Re-posting: API data and comments from yesterday's data --
API weekly crude oil inventories. We'll start with two movies.
  • the movie I saw
  • price of oil did not move yesterday after the data was released
  • the gasoline "story" is driving the price of oil; not Libya, not Venezuela, not Iran; not China trade war
  • US crude oil inventories unexpectedly grew by 1.25 million bbls
    • the build was a yawner: up 1 million bbls following a week when there was an unprecedented (?) draw of over 8 million bbls
  • gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million bbls vs an expected draw of 104,000 bbls
  • headline: "oil prices up despite massive crude oil build"
  • US crude oil inventories: "mammoth build of 1.25 million bbls"
  • analyst (singular) expectations: a draw of 2.741 million bbls (2,741,000 bbls -- that false precision is stunning - estimated to the nearest thousand bbls -- wow; now I know we're counting the number of angels dancing on the head of a pin)
  • gasoline inventories: a draw of 1.485 million bbls (again, the false precision); vs analysts (plural) prediction of a small draw of 104,000 bbls
  • 1.485 is greater than 1.25 so if "1.25 million is mammoth", then "1.485 must be humongous"
  • "oil prices were up in afternoon trade by around 1/2% compared to last week's prices"
  • the writer did not note that comparing the price of oil immediately before and after the API data was released: no change
The Dictionary Page

Metonym: one of my favorite words.

I don't recall when I first used that word.

I don't recall if I've ever seen the word "in the wild." Until today.

From buzzfeednews:
In the essay, Ghomeshi wrote about his name becoming a "metonym for everything from male privilege to the need for due process" and about being shamed and humiliated in the wake of the sexual assault allegations against him.

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