Wednesday, July 5, 2017

Tesla Production "Slows Down" -- Yahoo Finance Video -- July 5, 2017

Updates
July 8, 2017: see comments below to see how Elon Musk plans to solve south Australia's energy problem.  https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/07/telsa-wins-sa-battery-tender/.

July 8, 2017: from The Verge --
Today’s the day (July 7, 2017) for Tesla. The automaker says it expects to complete production of “SN1” (or “Serial Number one”) of the Model 3, its first electric car for the masses.
July 8, 2017: more bad news for Tesla -- this time from MarketWatch.
Overpromising by Tesla Inc. Chief Executive Elon Musk does not usually faze his die-hard fans and investors.

But that ended this week, when a trifecta of bad news began to hit the stock. Tesla shares wove in and out of bear territory Thursday, at one point during the trading day falling 20% off its record high of $383.45 reached on June 23.

It started with Musk’s update late Sunday that the number of cars Tesla delivered in the second quarter was below Wall Street’s estimates, due to a severe battery production shortage. Then Thursday, Tesla was not included in the latest “Top Safety Pick” list of the safest cars. Combined with reports of looming new electric-car rivals, including Volvo, the developments culminated in a big hit to Tesla’s market cap and the loss of its status as the most valuable U.S. auto maker. Tesla has lost about $7.18 billion in market value in the past two trading sessions.

Tesla’s July 2 surprise wasn’t the first time the company and Musk squeezed in bad news when some investors might be otherwise distracted. It also was not the first time Musk has made big promises and had to walk them back. Last year, Musk predicted production of 100,000 to possibly 200,000 Model 3 units in the second half of 2017, one of its most anticipated models ever, a number it later scaled back to producing about 5,000 a week, “at some point in 2017.”

On Sunday, Musk countered the news of the slightly lower delivery number with good news about the Model 3. Tesla said that its first certified Model 3 would be completed this week and about 30 cars would be handed over to customers at its Fremont, CA, factory on July 28.
July 7, 2017: bad news for Tesla -- Panasonic inaugurates electric vehicle battery factory in China
Panasonic unveiled today its latest battery manufacturing facility and first in China. The ~$400 million plant, which was first announced in 2015, will manufacture battery cells for the growing electric vehicle market in China.
The Japanese electronics giant claims that the projected annual capacity will support the production of “around 200,000 electric vehicles”. They plan to supply “hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and all-electric vehicles”, therefore, it’s not clear what the overall production will be in term of energy capacity since they can make 10 hybrid car batteries with 1 all-electric car battery pack.
When taking into account the Tesla Gigafactory in Nevada, it’s the second new production facility for electric vehicle batteries that Panasonic is launching this year.
July 6, 2017 Munster didn't get the memo -- see below: only time will tell just how long the useful life of these new packs will be, but the replacement costs still remain anywhere from $15,734 and up. It is quite possible future battery pack replacement costs could exceed a car's value sending it to a scrap yard instead of a used car sales lot.) From Barron's:
He’s betting that Tesla has a much larger addressable market than many investors realize due to its relative affordability.
By Munster’s math, a Model 3 owner would be paying just 13% more than a Toyota Camry owner after five years, taking into account “savings from fuel, insurance maintenance, and repairs.” He thinks that expands Tesla’s addressable market to 11 million cars, which would enable the company to do for electric-vehicle adoption what Apple did for smartphone adoption.
Munster doesn't mention that by five years the new owner would be starting to look for a replacement battery.

Later, 6:26 p.m. Central Time: replacement value -- over at SeekingAlpha --
Tesla has invested all of its resources in a single direction under the leadership of Musk as CEO. Nevada is home to the single largest battery "gigafactory" in the world. Tesla will have invested in excess of $5 billion in this single plant with an equally singular pursuit, to build battery packs and later electric motors for the new Model 3, which will begin production on Friday.
No other automaker has taken this singular position, and perhaps for good reason. While prices have been improving, battery packs remain the most expensive component in BEV vehicles.
Only time will tell just how long the useful life of these new packs will be, but the replacement costs still remain anywhere from $15,734 and up. It is quite possible future battery pack replacement costs could exceed a car's value sending it to a scrap yard instead of a used car sales lot.
Later, 2:55 p.m. Central Time: 219 comments; 3,881 followers. Tesla story becoming increasingly fantastic as business model falls apart. Over at SeekingAlpha, summary:
  • Tesla delivery numbers continue to tell a story of misery - the missing in-transit numbers is a story by itself;
  • Model 3 narrative is even less credible - expect huge losses ahead; and,
  • underutilization of manufacturing facilities and ongoing opex and capex continue to push the company toward bankruptcy.  
Original Post
 
I did not watch the video at the link.
The automaker met only the low end of its production estimates for the first half of 2017. Yahoo Finance’s Nicole Sinclair, Dan Roberts, and Myles Udland discuss why many investors don’t seem to be so concerned about supply problems.
Tesla shares are down about 6% today.

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Outlandish Milestones

Two men have outlandish plans, outlandish milestones, outlandish announcements.

One of the two has apparently met every milestone.

One can argue whether the other man has met every one of his milestones.

South Korea, Australia, Japan, China, the US appear  to be "blowing off" one of the two.

Every investor, it seems, is betting the farm that the other man will meet his milestones.

One man says he plans to deliver nuclear missiles to the US via ICBMs.

The other man makes batteries and cars. 

7 comments:

  1. So if Tesla has a "severe battery production problem," how is it going to do this?

    "South Australia has announced Elon Musk’s Tesla as the principal builder of the world’s largest lithium ion battery to expand the state’s renewable energy supply.

    The company’s battery boss says SA’s power woes can be solved in 100 days….

    The mega-project will be built in conjunction with French renewable energy firm Neoen and paired with Neoen’s existing wind farm at Hornsdale north of Adelaide."



    https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/07/telsa-wins-sa-battery-tender/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As usual, the comments at the linked site are the best part. It appears the Aussies are seeing through this whole thing.

      In the US, back in the day, whenever there was a civil disobedience issue, the "Reverend" Jesse Jackson always seem to show up. Now, whenever there's a regional, national, or global energy crisis, Elon Musk seems to show up.

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    2. --Elon Musk offers to fix Australian power network in 100 days--
      http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39229255

      "Elon Musk, boss of electric car firm Tesla, says he can help solve South Australia's power crisis within 100 days - and if not he'll do it for free.

      The offer follows a series of blackouts in the state.

      On Thursday, Tesla executive Lyndon Rive had said the company could install 100-300 megawatt hours of battery storage in 100 days....

      The state of South Australia has suffered from blackouts since September last year, leading to a political spat over energy policy.
      Tesla has been expanding its battery business alongside its car production.

      This week the US company launched its Powerwall 2 in Australia, the world's top market for rooftop solar.

      Battery storage is one of several options the government is looking at to help ensure reliable power supplies as Australia grows more reliant on intermittent wind and solar power."

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    3. --South Australia power prices to rise to highest in the world on Saturday, energy expert warns--
      http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-28/sa-has-most-expensive-power-prices-in-the-world/8658434

      “South Australia will overtake Denmark as having the world’s most expensive electricity when the country’s major energy retailers jack up their prices this Saturday [July 1, 2017]….

      Bruce Mountain, the head of a private energy consultancy firm, said the increases would see South Australia take the lead on world power prices….”

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    4. Saint Musk is coming to our Aussie friends’ rescue. He will slay those evil fossil fuel devils.

      https://s9.postimg.org/c0kw7ghbz/Webp.net-compress-image_83.jpg

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    5. I never realized how easy this all was. President Trump should have picked Elon Musk to be Secretary of Energy and his Secretary of Health and Human Services (national health care).

      Delete
    6. "Never let a crisis go to waste." -- Former president's chief of staff.

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