Friday, May 5, 2017

Unemployment Rate At 10-Year Low -- 4.4% -- Great Jobs Report -- Trump Is Making America Great Again -- The Political Page, T+105 -- May 5, 2017

Jobs report: before the report comes out later this morning, talking heads still blaming the bad weather for one bad report earlier this year. Wow. Once the narrative begins, it never ends.

The magic number: the magic numbers have changed significantly over the past 10 years. The bar was lowered during President Obama's administration. Right now, this is where the magic numbers stand:
New jobs: 150,000 (< 150,000 new jobs: economic stagnation)
Economists estimate the labor market needs to create about 125,000 jobs a month to keep the unemployment rate steady, though estimates vary -- Reuters.
CNBC's Steve Liesman waffled when asked about the "magic number" but he finally said that he accepted 125,000 to 150,000 would be an "appropriate" number to keep the economy growing, or suggesting the economy is growing, or whatever.

  • consensus: 190; first talking head says 175,000 based on weather impact (Jared)
  • next talking head: 200,000, based on retail
  • next talking head: 160,000,
  • next talking head: 205,000, and last month's number will be revised upward -- Rick Santelli
  • next talking head: 145,000 -- Steve Liesman
Nurses: CNBC: first story on where there are huge shortages -- nurses.

Today's numbers: Here are the numbers for today's jobs report: 211,000.

Wow! 211,000. Everyone was low on their forecast; Rick Santelli came closest, even calling the upward revision for the last report.

62.9% participation rate.

Unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, down from 4.5%. Lowest rate since May, 2007.

Last month's number revised up to 98,000 from 79,000.

One head scratcher: Jared says wages are accelerating (I'm not sure) but we're not seeing any sign of inflation. Reason? Wage inflation doesn't affect core inflation for quite some time.

US House Repeals ObamaCare

Counterintuitively, the GOP is doing this just right. We can thank the Founding Fathers on this one.

It starts with the fact that ObamaCare is dying on the vine.

News From Chicago

 This is just one of the problems: the Chicago police department and the police union are quibbling over the actual percent of Chicago cops committing suicide, both numbers well ahead of the national average. 

Chicago stats: either 29/100,000 or 23/100,000 depending on the source.

National rate: 18/100,000.

While in the military, we went through a period when suicides were becoming an issue, and a lot of attention was placed on suicide prevention. I don't recall the rates. According to USA Today, for the year 2015:
The Pentagon reported Friday that 265 active-duty servicemembers killed themselves last year (2015), continuing a trend of unusually high suicide rates that have plagued the U.S. military for at least seven years.
The number of suicides among troops was 145 in 2001 and began a steady increase until more than doubling to 321 in 2012, the worst year in recent history for servicemembers killing themselves.
The suicide rate for the Army that year was nearly 30 suicides per 100,000 soldiers, well above the national rate of 12.5 per 100,000 for 2012.
So, in general:
  • national rate: 12
  • military: 30
  • Chicago police (union numbers): 29
  • Chicago police (dept numbers): 23

No comments:

Post a Comment