Monday, November 30, 2015

The Shifting Sands Of Fortune -- EIA -- November 30, 2015

The graphics are most staggering at this EIA site.

This one deserves some attention:

It is best to go to the linked EIA site where one can enlarge the graphic above and make some interesting observations.

By the way, this is quite exciting. The above graphic was a screenshot, but the EIA has announced that one can "embed" its graphics into one's website directly. Life just keeps getting better.

From wiki:
The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.

Choosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates and cumulative production. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases because of the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines because of resource depletion.

The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite, therefore the rate of discovery which initially increases quickly must reach a maximum and decline. In the US, oil extraction followed the discovery curve after a time lag of 32 to 35 years. The theory is named after American geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who created a method of modeling the production curve given an assumed ultimate recovery volume.
Note: on December 18, 2018, wiki had not changed one word of that lead-in to the page on Hubbert Peak Theory (link here).

How has the theory held up? Also, from the same link:
A 2007 study of oil depletion by the UK Energy Research Centre pointed out that there is no theoretical and no robust practical reason to assume that oil production will follow a logistic curve. Neither is there any reason to assume that the peak will occur when half the ultimate recoverable resource has been produced; and in fact, empirical evidence appears to contradict this idea. An analysis of a 55 post-peak countries found that the average peak was at 25 percent of the ultimate recovery.
EURs in the Bakken have been increasing ever since the boom began.

Some Observations On Growth In US Reserves, Year-Over-Year

The industry definition of reserves and related terms:
  • reserves: those quantities of petroleum which are anticipated to be commercially recovered from known accumulations from a give date forward. 
  • contingent reserves: those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations
  • commerciality: it is recommended that, if the degree of commitment is not such that the accuulation is expected to be developed and place on production with a reasonable time frame,the estimated recoverable volumes for the accumulation be classified as continent resources. A reasonable time frame for the initiation of development depends on the specific circumstances but, in general, should be limited to around 5 years... reserve quantities would then represent the estimated recover resulitng from the imlementation of that plan. [An exception:gas fields in which there are contracts for the out-years.]
When I look at the map of the US above, the change in reserves from 2013 to 2014, this does not mean that original oil in place has increased or decreased over the past year, rather the data has to do with what is likely to be recovered over the next five years.

1. Oil losers
  • Gulf of Mexico
  • California
  • Alaska
  • Utah
2. Oil winners
  • Texas
  • North Dakota
  • Oklahoma
  • Colorado
  • New Mexico
3. Most interesting -- look at this -- the natural gas winners include North Dakota; it may be trivial compared to the state of Texas, but it is huge for a state like North Dakota with a small population

4. There are not many states or areas that are losers in both oil and natural gas, but Alaska is a huge loser in both -- dark red.

5. The tale of two states: New York and Pennsylvania. It's all politics. 

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