CBR Obstacles WIth Focus On The Bakken -- RBN Energy -- November 15, 2018

Brrr .... it's cold outside --

Global warming scam:

• prestigious, famous Scripps Institution, UC San Diego, fudged data for peer-reviewed Nature article; link here;
• I'm sure others will read it differently; that's my take -- but institutes like Scripps "don't" make "mistakes" like this
• says it was a mistake; will re-submit
• this is standard practice: headline story; if scam / fake data found -- and that's always a big "if," then apologize, call it a mistake, and re-submit with new data

Jobs: pending --

• previous: 214,000
• forecast: 210,000
• actual: 216,000 but still at historic lows

Weekly petroleum report, EIA: pending. Yesterday's API report showed a whopping 9 million-bbl increase.

US to set crude oil production record in December, IEA, link here:

• 7.94 million bpd in December
• this will be an increase by 113,000 bopd, to almost 3.7 million bopd
• led by the Permian: anticipated increases of 63,000 bopd
• all basins are expected to report increased production: including the Bakken
• likewise: natural gas production is forecast to increase across the board
• the Appalachian Basin: just over 30.4 billion cubic feet per day in December

Exports: US to become net exporter of petroleum for first time since 1949. Data points and story linked here.

Op-Ed: interesting op-ed on IEA's latest world energy outlook but the most interesting details were posted at the very, very end; I never would have guessed it based on the rest of the very, very long op-ed. I assume Clyde Russell is a faux environmentalist. Op-ed over at Reuters.

***********************************

Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, November 15, 2018:

• 33870, SI/NC, MRO, Arthur 24-35H, Bailey, no production data, 
• 32801, SI/NC, Oasis, Ceynar 5298 42-32 11T, Banks, t--; cum 51K 9/18;

Active rigs:

$56.24😟	11/15/2018	11/15/2017	11/15/2016	11/15/2015	11/15/2014
Active Rigs	63	55	39	64	186

RBN Energy: why new rail car specs are creating obstacles for CBR, with a focus on the Bakken. Below, just part of the article. For the entire post, go to the linked article. Archived.

It’s been well-reported that crude oil pipeline capacity is getting maxed out in many basins across the U.S. and Canada. From Alberta, through the heart of the Bakken, all the way down to the Permian, pipeline projects are struggling to keep up with the rapid growth in some of North America’s largest oil-producing regions. Crude by rail (CBR) has frequently been the swing capacity provider when production in a basin overwhelms long-haul pipelines. While it is more expensive, more logistically challenging, and more time-intensive, CBR capacity is typically able to step in and provide a release valve for stranded volumes. But recently, CBR capacity has been tougher to come by and has taken longer than expected to ramp up. A key aspect of this issue is a new requirement for up-to-date rail cars. Today, we look at how new rail demands and uncertainty in domestic oil markets are combining to create a major hurdle for new CBR capacity.

In today’s blog, we focused primarily on the Bakken, just for the purposes of showing a concrete example. But this same issue is manifesting itself across North America in other basins where pipeline takeaway capacity is not sufficient. Permian traders are having an extremely tough time getting tank cars and are hesitant to take out leases when they know lots of new pipeline capacity is coming online towards the end of 2019. In Canada, Cenovus Energy recently signed up for a three-year deal to move 100 Mb/d via rail to try to take advantage of access to cars and CBR capacity while it could. The discount Canadian producers are taking is much worse than Bakken, with Canadian heavy crude trading at a staggering $42/bbl discount. Canadian railroads have indicated they are willing to increase CBR capacity, but tank car access will continue to be a challenge for producers.

All that said, even if you can find cars, you still have to complete the rest of the puzzle. You’ve got to get the railroad to provide you reliable logistical support, you’ve got to find a CBR terminal that hasn’t been mothballed completely, and you need to find a downstream market that wants a Bakken barrel and is able to receive it via rail. The question now is who are the folks that can put together creative terms for DOT117Js to maximize profits now and minimize losses in three to four years when pipelines make many of them redundant?
Much more at the linked article.