Monday, October 1, 2012

Random Back-of-The-Envelope Calculations Regarding Oasis Following the XOM-DNR Deal

Updates

Later, 12:50 pm: base on first comment, the original post should look like this, with updated "net acreage" per most recent Oasis corporate presentation --

According to my database this is what I show for Oasis:
  • West Williston: 204,000 net acres
  • East Nesson: 108,000 net acres
  • Sanish: 8,000 net acres
West Williston at $7,000/acre --> $1.43 billion
East Nesson: at $20,000/acre --> $2.16 billion
Sanish: at $15,000/acre --> $120 million
Total: $3.71 billion

Oasis: market cap -- $2.9 billion

1.3 x $2.9 billion --> $3.7 billion

Wow, that's amazing. I didn't change a thing but reflect the current "net acres." Note the two numbers in red, bold. Again, as noted below, I did not work backwards; I just went down line-by-line to see what would fall out.

Original Post

According to my database this is what I show for Oasis:
  • West Williston: 201,265 [prev191,716 net acres (up slightly from 191,552, last report)]
  • East Nesson: 97,956 [prev 102,786] net acres
  • Sanish: 8,409 [prev 8,729] net acres
West Williston at $7,000/acre --> $1.4 billion
East Nesson: at $20,000/acre --> $2 billion
Sanish: at $15,000/acre --> $120 million
Total: $3.4 billion

Oasis: market cap -- $2.9 billion

1.3 x $2.9 billion --> $3.7 billion. 

(Note: I did not work backwards on this. I simply went down line-by-line to see what would fall out. It is amazing how nice the "law of large numbers works out.")