Wednesday, July 11, 2018

Dire Straits: Wow, Huge Drop In US Crude Oil Inventories -- Watch Price Of Gasoline In August -- Again, Trump Knows What He's Talking About -- He Saw This Coming -- Begged OPEC For Help A Month Ago -- July 11, 2018

So, Sherlock, explain this: US crude oil inventories drop a staggering 12.6 million bbls and yet WTI, drops significantly.

Embarrassing and tedious (the prices are in real-time):

Weekly petroleum report (link here) (can hardly wait to see John Kemp's graphics with this one):
  • US crude oil inventories down a staggering 12.6 million bbls; at 405.2 million bbls
  • distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 4.1 million barrels, versus expectations for a 1.2 million-barrel increase, the EIA data showed
  • WTI: drops in price
  • refineries: operating at 96.7% capacity; down slightly from previous week
  • gasoline production at 10.7 million bbls (my target: 10 million bbls)
  • distillate production at 5.4 million bbls (my target: 5.4 million bbs)
For newbies, to put this drawdown in perspective: the drawdown on a weekly basis generally ranges up or down a million or so bbls/week. If the increase or decline is four million bbls, it gets my attention. A decline of six million bbls is "staggering." I'm not sure what word to use when the inventories drop by over 12 million bbls.

Some might argue that refiners pre-loaded deliveries a week or so ago in anticipation of the driving season. Maybe. We'll see. 

My concern:
  • total products (gasoline, diesel, etc) down 1.4% from the same period last year
  • over the past four weeks, motor gasoline supplied dropped to 9.6 million bbls/day, down by 1.7% from the same period last year
  • but look at this: distillate fuel product (think diesel) supplied averaged a very disappointing 3.8 million bbls per day over the past four weeks, down 6.1% from the same period last year
  • jet fuel product supplied was essentially flat compare to same four-week period last year
I've often said:
  • the best indicator or US economy: gasoline and diesel supplied
  • the best indicator of inflation: price of a McDonald's hamburger 

So Far Away, Dire Straits

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