Thursday, December 22, 2016

Peak Oil? Food For Thought -- Platts -- December 22, 2016

Some great statistics in this article. The theme: despite the current glut in oil, much of that due to the shale revolution, demand is likely to put stress on supply in the future. It appears, bottom line, IEA has simply moved the "peak oil" concern from 2020 to 2040. Some data points:
  • 1998: IEA forecast peak oil in 2020
  • how far was the IEA off? IEA projected demand at 111 bopd by 202; in fact, current demand is struggling to hit 99 bopd
  • today: IEA says CAPEX slumped in past two years due to price downturn; price downturn "pulled the rug out from under upstream spending and investment decisions": IEA sees a potential oil supply "gap" of 16 million bopd by 2025
  • the gap of 16 million bopd by 2025 threatens new spike in oil prices
  • global tight oil: 4.6 million bopd in 2015; will peak at 7.5 million bopd in 2035
  • IEA predicts decline by 23.7 million bopd over the next decade alone, the IEA forecasts, the equivalent of losing the entire output of Iraq every two years
So, we'll see.

  • the Bakken: 2 million bopd
  • the Eagle Ford: 2 million bopd (EIA: suggests about 1 million bopd)
  • the Permian: 4 million bopd (EIA: suggests about 2 million bopd)
  • subtotal: 8 million bopd in three plays
I can't even begin to count all the other tight plays in the US, but one could start with SCOOP and STACK. The IEA folks need to get out and about.

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