Rambling Notes -- The Mid-Morning Edition -- March 5, 2021

Pardon the interruption, for the archives: CVX is now trading solidly above $107 and pays almost 5%.

Now, back to regular programming. 

GS: raises Brent to $80/gallon in 3Q21. That would make WTI about $75. Or $85. Or something else altogether.  

CLR

Was WTI about $55 not too long ago? Is WTI running about $65 now? Let's see -- a $10/bbl gift.

CLR: with almost no new money required, 160,000 bopd x 10 = $1,600,000 / day in additional free cash flow = 365 x 1.6 million = $600 million in additional free cash flow on an annual basis. 

In calendar year 2020, CLR said it had $275 million in free cash flow.

Guidance (link here):

• Approx. $2.4 B of cash flow from operations; $1.0 B of FCF; 12% FCF Yield (non-GAAP);
•  58% reinvestment rate; 3-4% total production growth; budgeted at $52 WTI & $2.75 HH  
• $5 increase in WTI = approx. $250 million increase in cash flow
  

Most of their borrowing has been set for this year.

Some years ago, CLR said the "next year" was going to be a "break-out" year. I forget which year that was. It's very possible, CLR could have a break-out year this year. 

Of all the news coming out of CLR so far this year: their acquisition in the Powder River Basin. Among the US shale players, the PRB (J-D) is a bigger deal than I realized. Sort of sneaked up on me. If the Biden administration doesn't revoke the "permits in hand" in the PRB, CLR will be off and running, and expending only two rigs on the entire play. Talk about efficiency. 

Now, on another note. Speaking of borrowing.

The "big CAPEX" in shale has been spent. Not so for wind farms, renewable energy. Big CAPEX is yet to come. Along with higher interest rates. And the specter of the Texas February Freeze hanging over the industry. 

This from twitter.

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Jobs

From twitter: