John Kemp Explains This Week's Energy Tweets - January 13, 2016

"ObamaCare economics" has replaced "Reaganomics."

From google: A popular term used to refer to the economic policies of Ronald Reagan, the 40th US President (1981–1989), which called for widespread tax cuts, decreased social spending, increased military spending, and the deregulation of domestic markets.

A popular term used to refer to the economic policies of Barack Hussein Obama, the أربعة وأربعون th US President (2009 - 2017), which called for widespread health care taxes, increased social spending, decreased military spending, and increased regulation of domestic markets, particularly with regard to energy. 

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Hostage Situation; Powerball Lottery: and the Mideast on the Brink

Wasn't there a hostage situation in Iran during the Carter administration also? I vaguely remember something about that. There was even a movie, Argo. And, now, with the Obama administration, we have another American-Iranian hostage situation. Which reminds me, I almost forgot, Rush Limbaugh will be on in a minute. [Update: I hear that, yes, there was a hostage release, but SecState John "I served in Vietnam" Kerry facilitated their "immediate" release. Or something to that effect.]

Oh, yeah, I have to buy some Powerball lottery tickets for my wife. 1:292 million. I wonder if one could buy 292 million tickets at one dollar two dollars apiece for a "guaranteed win of $1.5 billion? Put that in the form of a business plan, put it on a PowerPoint presentation, and take it to your local bank for a $292 $500 million short term loan. (I thought PowerBall tickets were just a buck but I've been told they are $2 apiece; see first comment. I corrected the blog. After taxes, the business plan doesn't look all that good.]

For the archives about a speech that was described as disjointed, irrelevant, disappointing (glad I missed it):

On the very day the president is delivered his speech, the Iranian Navy captured two US Navy ships that allegedly were incapacitated and drifted into Iranian waters. Now Iran is holding these sailors hostage. Yet, there was no mention of this incident in the president’s speech.

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Graphology

So many story lines here, but I just don't have time. John Kemp explains some of the energy graphs released this week:

Oil and gas production was one of the fastest-growing industries in the United States between 2009 and 2014 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

Oil production increased by more than 60 percent while natural gas production was up by more than 25 percent thanks to the shale revolution.

What is less well-known is that oil and gas production is also very energy intensive and the drilling boom contributed significantly to fuel consumption, especially diesel.

Everyone talks about all the diesel used by all the 18-wheelers supporting the oil and gas industry. But the drivers drove out to those 18-wheelers in their gas-guzzling Ford F-series pickup trucks, and their spouses with money to spend, were driving their gas-guzzling SUVs to malls they only dreamed about before the boom. Yeah, it's not just diesel but also gasoline demand that has fallen off the chart due to the current oil and gas industry challenges.

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John Kemp Also Linked A NewStatesman Article

January 13, 2016: from the NewStatesman: Behind Saudi Arabia’s bluster is a country that feels under grave threat.

Saudi Arabia feels with good reason more threatened than at any time in its modern history, at least since the subversive Kulturkampf of the 1950s and 1960s from Nasser’s Egypt.

This stems from five sources: first, the challenge of Sunni and largely Salafi jihadism; second, the sustained ideological and material challenge of the Islamic Republic of Iran; third, the collapse of large parts of the Middle East state system following the Arab spring; fourth, a sharp fall in global energy prices; and fifth, a sense that historical alliances – notably but not only with the United States – are fraying.

These threats are real.

A decade or so ago, the heirs to Juhaiman al-Otaybi’s 1979 Grand Mosque attackers, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, launched a terror campaign within the kingdom with the aim of inspiring a general Sunni insurgency. The Saudis were slow to realise what they were facing. Once they did, they mobilised and ruthlessly crushed the terrorists.

But they did not go away. The remnants regrouped in Yemen and from there plotted, recruited others (including the American imam Anwar al-Awlaki) and directed further attacks, against Western and Saudi targets. More recently there has been a wave of attacks, claimed by Islamic State, mostly on Shia targets – but also on security forces and a Sunni mosque at a military base near the Yemeni border.

Remember the fall of the Shah of Iran? It happened during the period when the US president was very, very similar to our current president. Both ideologues and internationally weak and isolationists. From wiki: The Carter Administration increasingly became locked in a debate about continued support for the monarchy. In the current situation, President Obama has explicitly stated and has explicitly acted in such a matter to let the Saudis know they are on their own.

At Twitter, John Kemp also has two maps that show how much new territory Iran has "acquired" over the centuries, something I have not seen reported recently or in current context of the "Mideast on the Brink":

• http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/Iran_takeover_Gulf_lg.jpg 
• http://gulf2000.columbia.edu/images/maps/IranTerritorialChanges_lg.png

Saudi Arabia has a long, long memory. The Mideast measures "things" over generations. The United States? Quarterly (every three months).

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Where Are They Now? The American Hostages Held By Iran?

To the best of my knowledge, the American hostages are still being held despite Iran's promise to release them "promptly" or whatever the Arabic-translated word was. [Update: I hear they were released.]