Tuesday, August 5, 2014

North Dakota Oil Production Sets New Record; Almost A 4% Month-Over-Month Increase In Daily Production -- Tuesday -- August 5, 2014

Quick: what was the percentage increase in North Dakota production, May, 2014, over April, 2014, according to just-released figures?  3.6%.
For newbies: this is not trivial. The Bakken production is still exponential growth, about 2.1% monthly increase over the past year. The question has always been how long can exponential growth continue and at what rate. I certainly thought we were getting into "law of big numbers" and the North Dakota infrastructure was such that the growth would decrease by now. I assume Bakken fanboys like me will be disappointed this winter when we see negative growth month-over-month. But for now, quite exciting. See the report at the link below, and more on this at the post farther down.
From SeekingAlpha:

  • North Dakota’s crude oil production passed 1M bbl/day in April and remained above the 1M benchmark in May on the strength of production from the Bakken and Three Forks formations.
  • One reason for May's 3.6% M/M growth to 1.039M bbl/day was the addition of 227 producing wells through the state, with 10,892 producing wells in May compared to 10,665 in April.
  • Average production per well in the state also grew between the months, to 2,959 barrels per well from 2,822 in April.
  • North Dakota's oil fields now account for 12% of all U.S. oil production, and more than 1% of global production.
Active rigs:

Active Rigs194183206183140

RBN Energy: North Dakota-sponsored study reports on parameters of Bakken oil vis a vis CBR.

From FuelFix, the linked article above:
North Dakota’s crude oil production passed a record 1 million barrels per day in April and remained above the benchmark in May ... according to government reports.
In April, the North Dakota produced 30,097,687 barrels of crude and averaged 1,003,256 barrels produced per day through the 30-day month, according to data compiled by North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources.
In May, the state produced 32,228,691 barrels for average daily production of 1,039,635 barrels per day through the 31-day month.
One reason for the growth in oil production was the addition of 227 producing wells through the state. North Dakota counted 10,892 producing wells in May compared to 10,665 in April.
Average production per well in the state also grew between the months, from about 2,822 barrels per month per well in April to about 2,959 barrels per month per well in May.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in a report Monday that the growth in drilling may have yielded knowledge about the North Dakota formations that contributed to the increased production.
In the Bakken, the relatively low thickness and low permeability of the formation means that better information on the location of the oil can translate quickly into more production.
For Jane "there might be some oil there" Nielson:
The state’s oil fields now account for 12 percent of all U.S. oil production, and more than 1 percent of global production.
For newbies: remember, the reports lag about two months. This is August 5; the report covers the most recent month data is available: May. Lynn Helms suggested there could be quite a surge in North Dakota oil production this summer. May is still considered "spring" in North Dakota; the summer reports won't be seen until this autumn (in September, we will get the first summer report, June).

General Officer Shot/Killed In Afghanistan -- Report

A two-star general was supposedly shot in Afghanistan.

For the military that's a big story. It's one thing for junior officers to die in combat, lieutenants and captains, but majors are pretty safe (except for being fired by Obama) and one almost never hears of lieutenant colonels (O-5's) begin killed, and if a colonel gets killed it's huge news.

A "combat" fatality involving a general officer moves it to a whole new level.

When I first read the headline, I thought perhaps a one-star general -- they are a bit more "common" to be seen with combat troops, but a 2-star is ... unheard of? It will be interesting to see if we get some statistics on how many 2-star generals have been killed by enemy soldiers.

I'm waiting for the speech and then the golf outing.


  1. I was a Major when I was over in Afghanistan.....I couldn't count the number of times I was shot at, rocketed and was even the target of a suicide bomber. Things are different over there with the Adviser missions all over the country. Just like Vietnam. If you did a count of the people who have been killed over in Afghanistan since the current administration took office 5.5 years ago I think you would find a goodly number of higher ranking officers because of the current nature of the mission. BTW, I spent time at the old officer training academy in western Kabul.

    1. Thank you for taking time to write.

      It just reminds me how ill-informed I am about events going on in Afghanistan, and I actually follow it more than most Americans, I assume (at least the Americans I see Jay Leno interview on his "Jay-Walking" interviews).

      It's a sad commentary on this media-forgotten war.

      The analogy to Vietnam is very, very interesting. I do not recall many stories about majors being killed in Vietnam (except as related to USAF bombers being shot down); the stories (right or wrong) were always about second lieutenants and maybe, first lieutenants, it seems.

      I remember the "friendly fire" article in "The New Yorker."

      A huge difference between Vietnam and Afghanistan: the draft vs an all-volunteer force.

      Another huge difference between Vietnam and Afghanistan: most tours were one-year, although many went back more than once (as did my father-in-law). A lot of those killed in Vietnam never returned year-after-year-after-year-after-year which appears to be the case for many of our active duty and reservists serving in Kuwait (the first Bush war), Iraq (the second Bush war), and Afghanistan (the third war).

      But again, the biggest travesty: the under-reporting of the war in Afghanistan. It was quite different during the previous administration when the mainstream media couldn't get enough photographs of the coffins.