$50 Remains The Sweet Spot For The Price Of WTI -- January 10, 2017

From Platts:

Ten plays noted, from most greatest-to-least "break-evens." All are below $50, though Duvernay is right at $50. The best is Permian Delaware at about $32. Compare with the Bakken at about $34.

• Duvernay
• Uinta
• Anadarko Cleveland
• SCOOP
• Eagle Ford Oil
• STACK
• Bakken ($34)
• Permian Midland
• Denver-Julesberg
• Permian Delaware 

I was familiar with all of these, and all of them are linked at the sidebar at the right, with one exception: Anadarko Cleveland.

Anadarko Cleveland has been mentioned on the blog several times:

• February 19, 2016
• July 1, 2015 
• July 30, 2011
• May 2, 2011 

The Duvernay is in British Columbia.

$50 WTI / $55 Brent:

• won't help Saudi Arabia; currently Saudi Arabia's national budget based on $80 oil; historically had been at $100 oil
• keeps US gasoline at consumer-friendly price
• maintains US shale industry
• investors in public companies in US shale E & P may not do as well as in other sectors
• investors in public companies in US shale services may do better than in other sectors

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Short-Term Energy Outlook For US -- EIA

Crude Oil:

“The general decline in U.S. crude oil production that began almost two years ago is likely over, as higher average oil prices and improvements in drilling efficiency are giving a boost to output.”

“Final data are expected to show that U.S. oil production increased during the last three months of 2016, the first quarterly output increase since early 2015.”

“China’s oil production will continue to decline this year and during 2018 because of cuts in investment by oil companies.”

Gasoline/Refined Products:

“Despite higher pump prices, U.S. gasoline consumption is expected to reach a record high in 2017 because of a strong economy and higher employment.”

“Ethane is expected to account for almost half of U.S. liquid fuel consumption growth in 2018, as several petrochemical plants come online that use ethane as a feedstock in the manufacturing process.”

Natural Gas:

“U.S. natural gas production is expected to rise in each of the next two years, reversing the first decline in annual output in more than a decade that occurred during 2016.”

“U.S. natural gas exports are expected to continue growing over the next two years as several liquefied natural gas export terminals come online.”

Electricity:

“The average U.S. household will use 3% more electricity between December and March compared to the same period last year because of forecast colder temperatures than last winter.”

Coal:

“Coal is expected to make a modest comeback in 2017, accounting for a slightly larger share of U.S. electricity generation than natural gas in response to higher natural gas prices.”

“Higher coal use by the U.S. electric power sector in 2017 is expected to result in an increase in domestic coal production this year.”

Renewables:

“The amount of U.S. electricity generated by utility-scale solar energy is on track to double from 2015 levels to 1.2% in 2018, while wind power’s share of total generation over the same period is expected to increase from 4.7% to 6%, close to hydropower’s share of 6.5%.”