Monday, October 29, 2018

A Reader Weighs In On Likely Impending Natural Gas Shortage(s) This Winter -- October 29, 2018

My "comments were restricted" the past few days because I was getting too much spam. A regular reader who understands the natural gas sector way better than I do took advantage of "restricted comments" by sending a lengthy note instead. This might be more than most want to read, but for those following natural gas this winter, this is well worth your time.

For now, I will just copy and paste what the reader wrote. Hopefully you will find it as fascinating as I did. Hopefully the reader does not mind that I took this route. If the reader wants it removed, just let me know.

From a reader:


  1. the major caveat, of course, is that a winter like 2014 is somewhat unlikely, with a weak El Nino forming in the Pacific...NOAA is giving us better than a 40% chance for above normal temps for half the country from December through February, with no part of the country having a better than even chance for colder:

    but weak El Ninos are notoriously unpredictable....a few of them have left everything east of the Rockies in a deep freeze all winter....but if the El Nino strengthens, then the polar jet retreats north, & we can almost be assured of a warmer & drier than average winter in the northern tier of states, with a storm track across the south making it cooler and wetter..

    1. Glad to see "comments" working.

      Yes, agree completely about this: everything contingent upon the weather, but you know, it seems we are starting in such a big hole, that even a typical winter could be challenging.