Tuesday, May 9, 2017

EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook For May, 2017, Has Been Released

Oil Markets:
  • Increased drilling rig activity is expected to boost to U.S. crude oil production this year and next, with forecast production in 2018 averaging 10 million barrels per day.
  • Higher oil production from the United States, along with rising oil output from Canada and Brazil, is expected to curb upward pressure on global oil prices through the end of 2018.
Gasoline/Refined Products:
  • The recent decline in crude oil prices and rising gasoline inventories are cutting into pump prices, lowering the average price U.S. drivers are expected to pay for gasoline this summer.
  • U.S. gasoline inventories rose in April, a month when they normally fall.
  • Because of higher overall pump prices this year, the average U.S. household is expected to spend about $150 more for gasoline during 2017 than last year. However, gasoline expenditures are still expected to be lower than the average for the previous five years.
  • U.S. industrial production growth, rising rail traffic, and higher drilling rig activity are pushing up distillate fuel use.
Natural Gas:
  • U.S. marketed natural gas production is expected to increase almost 5% next year.
  • U.S. electricity generation is expected to be flat this year and then increase in 2018, with natural gas-fired generating facilities accounting for the biggest share of electricity supplies during both years.
  • U.S. coal production is expected to rise 5% this year and about 1% in 2018 on higher coal-fired electricity generation, which would be the first back-to-back annual increase in coal output since 2010-11.
  • The amount of U.S. wind power generation capacity is expected to top 100 gigawatts by the end of next year, when it would account for 9% of the electric power sector’s total generation capacity, and provide more than 6% of total electricity supplies.


  1. I haven't seen any thoughts on what fallout for Energy would be if Korean Peninsula War breaks out. I am curious.

    1. I've thought about that, also. But the tea leaves suggest there is absolutely no chance of war breaking out on the Korean peninsula in the foreseeable future.

      If war did break out, historians following the equity market would call it a "black swan" event because there seems to be absolutely no analyst factoring in a Korean peninsula war in today's environment.