Monday, February 24, 2020

It's Gonna Be One Of Those Mondays -- February 24, 2020

Coronavirus: spooks the global economy. Data for February 23, 2020, alarms the media, the market. The story is tracked at the sidebar at the right; statistics are here Raw numbers not concerning; percentages are concerning and trends are very concerning.

Nevada: it's hard to believe, but not all votes are in yet. And no one is reporting on that. This morning, though, "we" should have 100% of the results.

Flashback: if you love conspiracy theories, this one is really quite good. LOL. Dorothy Kilgallen. If nothing else, it will take your mind off a) coronavirus; b) the market; c) Bernie; d) Steyer. Okay, not Steyer. He's downright strange.

Market: and, yes, I am buying today.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:

Active Rigs546657413

Wells coming off the confidential list:
Monday, February 24, 2020: 52 for the month; 159 for the quarter, 159 for the year:
  • 36858, SI/NC, Slawson, Shakafox 7-28-21MLH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 36565, SI/NC, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Emerson Claire 33-28-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, no production data,
Sunday, February 23, 2020: 50 for the month; 157 for the quarter, 157 for the year:
  • 36564, drl, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Emerson Claire 33-28-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, no production data,  
Saturday, February 22, 2020: 49 for the month; 156 for the quarter, 156 for the year:
  • None.
RBN Energy: what REX pipeline's contract changes mean for gas flows, prices.
After a major decontracting and partial recontracting last fall, Tallgrass Energy’s Rockies Express Pipeline headed into 2020 with 839 MMcf/d in firm, long-haul commitments for natural gas moving east out of the Rockies for delivery into the Midwest. That volume is down from 1.3-1.8 MMcf/d in firm commitments previously. The contracted volume is also much lower than the peak — and even the average — historical gas flows on the route to the Midwest markets in recent years. At the same time, Tallgrass’s Cheyenne Connector pipeline and Cheyenne Hub Enhancement projects are expected to bring as much as 800 MMcf/d of new firm gas supply from the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin to the REX mainline at Cheyenne Hub. What will these changes mean for Rockies’ eastbound flows and prices? Today, we wrap up our series on REX’s recontracting with an assessment of how the recent contract changes could affect REX gas flows.
REX historically has been contracted and utilized at high rates for long-haul flows east from the Rockies to the Midwest, and at one point, also into the Northeast. Inflows of Rockies supply into the Northeast have long been displaced by Marcellus/Utica shale gas. Much of Zone 3 — the easternmost third of REX, from eastern Missouri to eastern Ohio — flows westward from the eastern terminus in Clarington, OH. However, as much as nearly 1.8 Bcf/d as of last year was still flowing east from Zone 1 (the westernmost third of the pipe) across the Missouri-Illinois border into the westerly portion of Zone 3.
About 772 MMcf/d of the system’s legacy long-term contracts for eastbound flows out of the Rockies expired on November 11, 2019.


  1. I've refrained from commenting from the get go, but from what I've been reading for the past three weeks, you're wildly underestimating the convid-19. It's a big deal. It won't bring death at blockbuster movie levels, but it will bring economies to a halt.

    Watch for the Canadian case on the flight from Montreal to Toronto two weeks ago. You've got a situation where there are carriers showing no symptoms spreading it for weeks. You can check the backlog of Chris Martenson, Erik Townsend, and Mike Shedlock who have been sounding the economic alarm for weeks.

    The world is tough to figure out, so I've kept to just bugging my wife about it. These guys have provided charts that have tracked as expected and sound rationale as to why people aren't as worried as they should be. Roughly two weeks ago the narrative out of this group was: Nearly everyone thinks this thing has tapered off, this is the calm before the storm. With a two week incubation period we won't find out if this was contained until the end of February, if you start seeing breakouts by then, we're in big trouble. That means containment has failed.

    1. It reminds me of the human immune system with regard to autoimmune diseases. You are entirely correct.

    2. I missed the story. Did Trump address a stadium with 110,000 people in attendance? That was the plan but I did not see the story (yet).

      India: three cases. No deaths.

  2. In all things, it's hard to know who to believe and what data to work off. I'm only arguing this virus "algorithm" to be way more economically disruptive that the main take was a couple weeks ago. There have been convincing arguments warning of big disruption that have tracked closely so far.

    I doubled up my gold miner ETF position, so I guess I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

    Hope I'm wrong. I'd rather see strong oil prices and alive happy people.

    1. Agree 100%. Fortunately, both of us have a lot of years in the market, so we've been through these things before, and, more importantly, we both (I assume) have the means to live through it.

      I vividly remember Black Monday, 1987, and (apparently) we all survived that.