An analyst much smarter than I nailed it: just because there is a growing supply of crude oil, it doesn't mean there won't be a shortage. It's all about demand and the "ability" of operators to keep up with that demand.
It now appears that the US won't hit Biden's ridiculously low bar to have 70% of American immunized by July 4, 2021. Already, the president has pivoted: he now talks about the 150 million doses that have been administered. But that still leaves about 50% of Americans not fully vaccinated. Evenly split.
But even with that, the US is re-opening very, very quickly.
The rest of the world: it's estimated that about 3% of the rest of the world is fully vaccinated. Ouch. And I'm not talking about the literal jab.
Some stories from overnight about the demand surge:
- from Bloomberg, empty oil tanks at key storage hub show speedy demand rebound; note the emphasis on demand, not supply;
- also from Bloomberg, Big Oil's new problem isn't lack of demand, it's lack of supply; yes, a different emphasis, but it still stems from the demand surge; either that or everyone is lying about OPEC's spare capacity;
- from S&P Global Platts: South Korea's crude oil imports from the US rise for the first time in 12 months in May, 2021
- refiners buying a minimum of four VLCCs/month of US crude in 2021
- light US grades ideal for raising middle distillate output yield (the Bakken is the lightest oil out there)
- widening Brent-Dubai spread favors Middle Eastern, US crude purchases;the world's fifth-largest crude importer received 1.227 million mt, or 8.99 million barrels, of US oil in May, up from 7.41 million barrels a year earlier, the customs data showed. The country has been receiving more than 4 VLCCs/month from the US since February.
- so, what's the vaccination status in South Korea? 25% of the country's population has gotten at least one jab (AstraZeneca; Pfizer; or Janssen
- so much more at the Platts link
By the way, did anyone see the paradox in the Bloomberg article regarding empty storage tanks at Cushing and why that is occurring?