Tuesday, February 5, 2019

This Is The REAL Russian Collusion -- While US Congress Dithers -- February 5, 2019


February 6, 2019: OPEC: production has dropped to lowest level since March, 2015 -- Platts survey. Data points:
  • total OPEC production dropped nearly one million bopd from December to January
    • lowest since March, 2015
    • December: 30.86 million bopd
    • January: 29.89 million bopd
  • Saudi Arabia:
    • January, 2019: 10.21 million bopd
    • pledged ceiling: 10.311 million bopd
    • lowest since May, 2018
    • crude oil exports: 7.2 million bopd; down 500,000 bopd
Original Post

Link here to The Wall Street Journal:
Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies are backing a formal partnership with a 10-nation group led by Russia to try to manage the global oil market, according to OPEC officials, in an alliance that would transform the cartel.

There were other stories earlier this week in very respected media outlets that Saudi Arabia and other Mideast princes were literally in the fight of their lives for their very survival. Back in 2014, or thereabouts, a lot of folks said shale would not make up the difference in loss of off-shore CAPEX/production, but, in fact, many off-shore projects were in the works and were expected to come on line by 2020. So, Russia and Saudi Arabia are facing a double whammy by this time next year: the Permian is going to reach its stride; and, all those off-shore projects are going to start coming on line.

Look at the Saudi cash reserves as of October, 2018, at this link.

Now, the most recent data, one year; five year (most relevant, and most stunning); and historical "max."

One year:
Five year:


Most interesting for me will be the 74 comments (so far) at the linked WSJ article. Gist of the comments:
  • no one is worried
  • no one understands why Saudis would do this
Meanwhile,  amount of oil the US imports from Saudi Arabia:

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