Saturday, October 29, 2016

Week 43: October 23, 2016 -- October 29, 2016

Another week of earnings reports and surprises. Of the majors, it looks like analysts are giving COP the benefit of the doubt, but wow, Exxon could be in a bit of trouble, as they get ready to write down their reserves. Chevron was the big surprise -- even increasing their dividend.

Whiting proved they were right that they could make money on $25 oil, or whatever price it was they said or what they were rumored to have said. I think I heard some rumors that down to $20 Whiting could make money. That was over a year ago, now.

On the international radar scope, it is clear that OPEC will be unable to make any meaningful cuts in production. The only OPEC country that could still announce some kind of cut is Saudi Arabia, but none of the others will. Maybe they will do it like the courts do it here in America: find someone guilty, sentence him to ten years in prison, allow for time already served, and then suspend the sentence. OPEC could do the same: announce a cut of "x" percent and then suspend the announced cut until the next meeting. Whatever. But at $49 oil, Saudi remains in a heap of trouble.

Speaking of "heap" of trouble, a note about Standing Rock Reservation. In general, and with very few exceptions, I won't blog about the DAPL and the protest in North Dakota, but I am following it to some extent -- a very limited extent. There's an article in today's Bismarck paper suggesting that the reservation is facing huge financial problems of their own (it looks like they are about ready to cave without more Hollywood financial support) and some of the folks are just now realizing winter is about to set in. I don't think folks who have never been to North Dakota in general, or to this part of North Dakota, in particular, can fathom how miserable next month is going to be for the protesters. And November is mild compared to February, three months later. Living in teepees or tipis off the reservation for the next six months -- wow, a great documentary for National Geographic or photo spread in Vanity Fair. This is an incredibly remote, desolate area of North Dakota -- even for North Dakota. There is nothing out there. I drove through the area earlier this year -- not even aware that DAPL was going to be an issue -- and even after growing up in North Dakota, I was surprised how remote this area was. It was absolutely beautiful; the scenery was incredible. But almost no sign of civilization. One gas station. Great location for a mega wind-farm. Whatever.

The most non-Bakken fun I've had on the blog, I suppose, is tracking the Northern Fleet on its way to Syria. The last signal/update was 22 hours ago. If the tug did not linger for some reason, the fleet should be north of Algiers by now.

Back to the Bakken. There are more and more signs that we are in the early stages of Bakken 2.0.

I started blogging about Bakken 2.0 about two weeks ago, and this past week Lynn Helms of the NDIC, without using that exact term, suggested the same thing. Even the Oil & Gas Journal picked up on it.

Bakken 2.0 -- Active Rigs
Up to 36
Number of active rigs rising slowly in North Dakota

Noticed by the Oil & Gas Journal

Bakken 2.0 -- Multi-Well Mega-Pad Development
CLR's proposed ten-well Bailey/Wiley pad in Pershing oil field
CLR's proposed thirteen-plus Sakakawea Federal pad in Elm Tree oil field

Bakken 2.0 -- Mega-Fracks
Random update on MRO's mega-fracks  

Bakken 2.0 -- Permits Renewed
Twelve permits renewed
Twenty-four permits renewed; thirteen new permits
Thirty-four permits renewed; fourteen new permits 

Bakken 2.0 -- New Operators
Petro-Sentinel (although probably not drilling Bakken wells) 
CLR transfers 67 wells to Kraken Operating 

Bakken 2.0 -- Increased Bakken Production
Hess set to increase producing in the Bakken in 2017
31% production increase, average EURs of almost 1 million boe; consistent production increase regardless of fracking intervals

Bakken 2.0 -- Increased EURs
Hess raises average EURs to one million boe for wells drilled in 4Q16

Bakken 2.0 -- DUCs Being Completed
Seven DUCs reported as being completed 

Bakken 2.0 -- Deals
Forbes talks about the SM Energy - Oasis deal in the Bakken

Bakken 2.0 -- Plans
Williston / Williams County begin open comment "season" on comprehensive plans for city and county  

Of all the operators in the Bakken, Halcon continues to report some of the best wells based on IPs; one example here
Number of potential Whiting drill sites probably under-estimated
Is the shale honeymoon over for PADD 1 (east coast) refineries?

Bakken Economy
Williston State College extends free college to several more counties in Montana, North Dakota
Western Area Water Supply Authority -- a huge success story -- celebrates its fifth anniversary

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