Thursday, March 26, 2020

Five-Fold Jump To One Million First-Time Unemployment Claims -- March 26, 2020

Morning grocery store report: last night I saw the truck arrive to re-stock our neighborhood store. Arrived just after store closed at 10:00 p.m.
I was there this morning at 0700 hrs when the store opened -- as were a dozen other seniors and a few middle-aged folks. Busiest it's ever been for this early in the morning. Very, very successful scavenger hunt: got everything I needed (and didn't need but will give to daughter) except for one item.
  • available for first time in days: Clorox cleanser (birthday gift for our older daughter -- her birthday was yesterday; she's been eager to get cleaning supplies); eggs; Sophia's particular brand of milk (but milk has always been in good supply, just not her brand); Bush's beans (Sophia's favorite brand); Dawn dish washing soap;
  • not available: fresh bread except in the bakery section (which is more than enough)
  • forgot to check: rice, but I doubt they had any
  • overall: a great trip -- just the Clorox, eggs, Dawn made my day
Earned income or taxable income? As a general rule, seniors have little earned income; hefty pensions, unearned income.
The package’s central cash-injecting giveaway would cut checks of up to $1,200 to each taxpayer, with phased out for people who earned between $75,000 and $99,000 in 2018. For each child, there would be a $500 tax rebate.
What were they thinking? Russia will now suspend all international flights.
Sure took them a long time. The bigger question: why are domestic flights in/out of NYC-area still allowed? We're in lockdown in many parts of the country and yet folks are flying in/out of NYC. Any restrictions? Any testing? The good news: there's a reason "they" call it "fly-over" country.
NYC subways: ridership drops 87%; service cut by a quarter.  MTA was looking for a $4-billion bailout from the $2-trillion bailout/stimulus/New Green deal bill -- received $3.8 billion.

US GDP, 4Q19, second estimate, link here:
  • US GDP, 4Q19
    • prior: 2.1%
    • consensus: 2.1%
    • actual: pending (7:30 a.m. CT)
  • consumer spending
    • prior: 1.7%
    • consensus, best: 1.7%
    • actual: 1.8%

US weekly jobs report (first time unemployment claims), link here:
  • prior: 281K (huge jump; far exceeded consensus)
  • consensus: one million; 
  • actual: 3.283 million

Jobless claims: this will be unprecedented in modern times (1970 - 2020 graphic here);
  • will far exceed worst hits in recessions of 1982 and 2009
  • has not surpassed 700,000 claims in one week since 1970
  • will unemployment rate for April top out at 15% or will it be worse?
US dollar / Canadian dollar: link here. Be sure to click through each of the time frames (12 hours, one day, one week, one month, one year. And then read the RBN Energy blog today, linked below.

US dollar / Mexican peso: link here. Most dramatic is the one-year and two-year graph -- from 18 pesos to 24 pesos in one / two years. This particular chart only goes back years:
  • 2010: 12 pesos / US dollar
  • 2014 - 2017: inflection point; jumped to 20 pesos / US dollar; this was during the Saudi surge; oil prices collapsed
  • 2020: unprecedented jump; literally overnight 25 pesos / US dollar
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5068594932

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, March 26, 2020: 65 for the month; 236 for the quarter, 236 for the year:
  • 36323, 563, Whiting, Oppeboen 14-5HU, Big Bend, t10/19; cum 62K 1/20; 1K month; 35 stages; 7.4 million lbs;
  • 34599, drl, MRO, McRoberts USA 14-21TFH, Reunion Bay,
RBN Energy: price crash could upend western Canada's propane export outlook.
The collapse in crude oil prices has sent shock waves throughout the global energy industry and Canada has been no exception. Sorting through all the impacts will take time, but what’s clear is that any earlier optimism surrounding supply growth in Canada has evaporated, including for propane supply to feed the new propane export terminals on British Columbia’s coastline. Edmonton propane prices fell 58% since the start of March to as low as 10.25 cents per gallon in U.S. dollars on March 23 — the lowest level since April 2016 — and settled yesterday at 13.13 cents per gallon, according to data from our friends at OPIS. A dampened supply outlook means future export expansion plans also are being reconsidered. Today, we explore what the sharp decline in propane prices could mean for the region’s supplies and future propane exports, including from Pembina Pipeline’s nearly completed export terminal in Prince Rupert, BC.
The past few weeks have seen many an energy outlook completely overturned. The effects of the huge downturn in crude oil prices have rapidly forced a large majority of producers in the U.S. and Canada to drastically reduce their spending plans for at least the first half of this year, and likely for all of 2020. Our examination of Canadian producers, both large and small, reveals more than C$6 billion ($4.1 billion) of capital spending reductions announced in just the past three weeks, with some producers still to release information on their capex plans. These spending reductions equate to a more than 30% cut versus previously announced capex plans for this year before prices came crashing down. The impacts may soon be seen in the number of drilled and completed crude oil and liquids-rich gas wells across Western Canada, although it may take some time for the supply impacts to be more fully realized.

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