Friday, April 2, 2021

US Economy -- March, 2021 -- Holy Mackerel! 916,000

March jobs: added an unheard-of 916,000 jobs. The consensus was around 620,000.

Unemployment rate: 6%.

  • revisions could put March, 2021, over one million jobs;
  • expect one-million-jobs in the coming months;
  • WSJ, 24 hours earlier, link here.
  • construction: added 110,000 jobs; "have never seen numbers" like this before
  • February, 2021, numbers revised upward, toward 500,000
  • January, 2021, numbers revised upward, also,

US economy on a tear:

  • Red-hot US economy a mixed blessing for rest of world, WSJ: link here
  • Auto makers start 2021 strongly, WSJ: link here.
  • Markets, futures after numbers announced:
    • Dow: up 0.5%; up 172 points; 33,153;
    • S&P 500: up 1.18%; up 47 points; at 4,020;
    • NASDAQ: up 1.76%; up 233 points; at 13,480;
  • US markets closed on Easter Friday.

CNBC talking heads:

  • "have never seen anything like this";
  • "people not staying home to get benefits; eager to get back to work";
    • think: gasoline demand;
  • "construction numbers unbelievable";
  • "this job growth should continue for the next eight to ten months";
    • think: gasoline demand;
  • "airlines re-hiring";
  • "can't get motel rooms in the Permian";
    • think: gasoline demand;
  • Becky Quick trying to talk the market down -- but then her panelists shut her down;
  • is Becky Quick the "most unwoke" person in business news?
  • Rick Santelli is so bullish he's starting to sound like me
  • did I mention gasoline demand?

Semiconductors: huge US demand as US economy surges. What to do? The Taiwanese know! Link here. The big question: might TSMC look back twenty years from now and wish they had put new factories in a safe country like the US? Lots of talk about the Chinese and Taiwan relationship. Just saying. From the linked article:

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. , a major chip supplier to Apple Inc., said it would invest $100 billion over the next three years to increase production capacity as demand surges. The planned investment is a record for the world’s largest contract chip maker as well as the broader industry, analysts said, at a time when chips are in short supply around the world. 
In a statement, the company said it expects strong demand over the next several years, a trend driven by growth in 5G and high computing capabilities and accelerated by the Covid-19 pandemic.
The pandemic accelerated 2020 - 2035 to 2020 - 2025, and fortunately the US has just the man in the White House to guide us through this high-velocity wind tunnel. Back to TSMC: $100 billion sounds like a lot of money but what's the denominator? What are they spending now? Here's the answer:

The $100 billion allocation for the next three years would be more than double what the company spent in the previous three years, according to New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu.

In January, TSMC announced a record capital-expenditure budget for 2021 of $25 billion to $28 billion to develop advanced chips and building plant capacity. 

Now, who are the biggest customers? Automakers and Apple? I don't know. That's my first guess.


  1. Not sure why, I keep thinking of gasoline demand..........over and over!!!

    1. Did I mention that folks are afraid to travel on trains, buses and planes (unless absolutely necessary) and will travel in personal vehicles: small vehicles, maybe EVs for short commutes; and, big, gas-guzzling SUVs for those vacation trips to the national parks?

  2. Pioneer bought more Midland core acreage. Pretty sweet per acre price (for the sellers). Nice map match though.

    1. Yes, the Pioneer story is on my to-do list. Speaks volumes about the shale industry and the banking industry right now.

  3. Yes, many people i Know are traveling this week/weekend for spring trip via SUV, if you go to a shopping Mall all the vehicles are SUV.. Greta should be Crying her eyes out , More Travel, More Jobs , More CO2..ohhh the Pain of Recovery.. don

    1. I think 75% of vehicles on road in Texas are crew cab pickups, SUVs, and regular pickups in that order. Then moving vans, people moving into the state. And then pickup trucks pulling huge trailers for mowers, landscapers.

  4. let's see....nine times 916,000 jobs and we'll almost be back to as many jobs as we had in February 2020

    1. This takes me back to my days in calculus: the absolute numbers don't matter. It's the rate of change, and then the derivative of that. Velocity and acceleration.