Monday, February 1, 2016

CLR Lost Almost $700 Million On Bet Price Slump Wouldn't Last Long -- February 1, 2016

Here is the "Bing" poll that was taken before the actual numbers come out tonight, we'll see how good Microsoft search engine is as it pertains to predicting election results:
  • Hillary Clinton: 50.1%
  • Sanders: 46.8%
  • Trump: 39.8%
  • Ted Cruz: 30.5%
  • Marco Rubio: 12.9% 
Wow, it looks like Bing really blew it with regard to the GOP. The actual numbers:
  • Cruz: 28%
  • Trump: 24%
  • Rubio: 23%
Even on the Democrat side, Bing failed to show how close the Hillary / Sanders race really was: 50 / 50. O'Malley got the other 0%. And calls it quits.
Chinese Oil Demand Posts Fastest Growth Since 2011

China's apparent oil demand in 2015 grew 5.8% year on year to 11.11 million b/d, the fastest pace since 2011, despite the country's economy growing at the slowest rate since 1990, Platts calculations based on recently released official data showed.

Apparent demand in 2011 expanded at 7.1% on year to 9.62 million b/d.

The strong apparent demand in 2015 was driven by transportation fuels gasoline and jet/kerosene, as well as LPG and fuel oil.

But Platts China Oil Analytics expect the country's oil demand growth to slow to around 2.4% in 2016.

North Dakota Budget Update

North Dakota facing $1 billion shortfall; governor orders agencies to slash 4% from budgets; link at Dickinson Press.
The new forecast predicts general fund revenues will fall $1.074 billion short of the March forecast that state lawmakers relied upon when crafting a $6 billion general fund budget for the current two-year cycle that began July 1. Revenues were already $215 million below forecast from July through December.
To make up the shortfall, Dalrymple announced across-the-board cuts of nearly $245 million, or 4.05 percent, for state agencies that receive general fund dollars, which is most of the 73 agencies. That’s deeper than the 2.5 percent cut required by state law when an updated forecast predicts that revenues will be 97.5 percent or less of what was projected in the legislative forecast.
Dalrymple also will draw $497.6 million from the state’s Budget Stabilization Fund, leaving roughly $75 million in the rainy day fund for what he called the “unlikely event” that the July revenue forecast would be even worse.
CLR Update

From Forbes, Harold Hamm Expects $60 Oil, Says America Will Double Output Again --
“Some people didn’t pull back as fast as they should have,” says Hamm. “They are pulling back now.” Hamm’s move represents capitulation of a sort. In late 2014 he decided to sell off all of Continental’s oil price hedges for $400 million, betting that prices would soon recover. They didn’t, and Continental missed out on about $700 million in proceeds that those hedges would have generated. No surprise, he’s even more bullish now. Prices are “unsustainable,” he says. “People aren’t making any money.”

These bad days won’t last. America’s oil output has already turned down from 9.6 million barrels per day to 9.2 million bpd. Hamm, backed up by analysis from his resident team of data eggheads, expects the declines to accelerate as drillers capitulate. Each passing month will shave another 125,000 bpd off U.S. output — adding up to about 1.5 million bpd this year. As it happens, that’s almost precisely the same amount of oversupply currently sloshing around world markets, according to Energy Aspects, a consultancy.

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