Saturday, November 21, 2020

Running Out Of Fingers And Toes: Tracking The EV Manufacturers -- November 21, 2020

Running out of fingers and toes: EV manufacturers.

The WSJ has a great update on eleven EV startups chasing Tesla (linked above).

Some data points:

  • Tesla, now part of the S&P 500, or soon to be; not quite sure; don't care;
  • Tesla: more valuable than the following companies combined:
    • Toyota
    • VW (largest car manufacturer in the world?)
    • GM
    • F
  • GM: this past week said it would spend $27 billion over the next four years of development of electric and driverless vehicles
  • my hunch: driverless vehicles will be banned from school zones
The eleven start-ups covered by The WSJ, with capital raised (prices all before tax incentives):

  • Rivian: $5.35 billion in five funding rounds in the past two years
  • focus: an all-electric pickup; start at $67,500; goes on sale June, 2021
  • sales model: like that of Tesla
  • can't wait to see this compete with Ford
  • Lucid Motors, Inc: "more than $1 billion raised
  • notable backers: Public Investment Fund (PIF) of Saudi Arabia
  • first Airs will cost $169,000; to go on sale next year
  • entry-level model promised at $77,400
  • hunch: will fail. High-end auto makers like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Porsche are rolling out their own luxury EVs
  • Lordstown Motors, Ohio; $4.2 billion
  • the Endurance: a pickup truck marketdd to commercial fleet operators; 
  • starting price: $52,500
  • has to hire 1,000 more workers and re-tool a massive plant before entering highly competitive field, including Ford's F-150 -- the best-selling vehicle in the US -- not just the best-selling pickup truck, but the best-selling vehicle
  • Ford will also target fleet buyers starting in 2022
  • Nikola; $10 billion
  • I won't waste my time on this one
  • Fisker, $4.7 billion
  • first attempt by Henrik Fisker to go EV back in 2007: went broke, as in bankrupt
  • Canoo, $2.4 billion
  • will probably go nowhere
  • NIO
  • market valuation: $66 billion
  • ES6: a five-seat SUV; $52,000
  • NIO's stock gains outpaced Tesla's share-price surge last year
  • NIO's market value eclipsed that of GM this past week;
  • sounds exciting, huh? despite a strong 2020, it posted a loss of $1.6 billion in 2019, and laid off roughly a fifth of its employees
  • got a $1 billion lifeline from Chinese state investors this past spring
  • main competitor: Tesla which just opened its first Chinese factory last year
  • Li Auto
  • market valuation: $31 billion
  • plug-in hybrid luxury SUV; uses a small gasoline engine (a lawn motor engine, I suppose) to generate power for lithium-ion batteries
  • $50,000
  • I'm excited. Not.
  • XPeng
  • market valuation: $35 billion
  • huge, deep-pocket backers: Alibaba; Chinese phone company Xiaomi; Qatar Investment Authority;
  • Faraday & Future
  • nothing known about valuation and funding
  • another luxury entrant
  • Faraday Future has spent more than $2 billion and has yet to sell a single vehicle, after originally targeting 2017 to bring first model to market
  • not interested
  • Arrival Ltd., London
  • market valuation: $5.4 billion
  • major backers: Hyundai, Kia, BlackRock, and UPS
  • small EV delivery vans
  • UPS has ordered 10,000 vans
  • Facts and comments:

    • China and India are the big markets of which I know nothing
    • US market:
      • 40% of American do not own their own homes
      • about 20% of Americans live in apartments or condos
      • minimal transparency on number of EVs actually sold
      • huge opportunities for those focused on infrastructure
      • why didn't US Post Office switch to EVs decades ago?
      • why did the US military not focus on EVs for stateside operations?

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