Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Fracked With 34 Million Gallons Of Water -- February 2, 2021

The well. This was an extended long lateral, three sections long; one section longer than a typical two-section well in the Bakken. The Maddy Federal wells are tracked here.

  • 32070, A/F, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34D, North Fork, first production, 7/20; t--; cum 253K 12/20; re-entered on December 4, 2018; TD reached on December 21, 2018; fracked 3/30/20 - 4/20/20; 33.660 million gallons of water; 93.3% water by mass;
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A Musical Interlude

Ray Charles, 1962

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Personal Request

The Incredible Maddy Federal Wells

For Bakken 4.0, these are not atypical wells.

These were extended long laterals (three sections). Interestingly, there was no "parent" well in this drilling unit.

The wells:

  • 32069, PNC, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34A, North Fork,
  • 32066, PNC, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34C, North Fork,
  • 32064, PNC, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34G, North Fork,
  • 32071, A/F, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34AXD, North Fork, first production, 7/20; t--; cum 202K 12/20;
  • 32065, A/F, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34B, North Fork, first production, 7/20; t--; cum 212K 12/20;
  • 32070, A/F, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34D, North Fork, first production, 7/20; t--; cum 253K 12/20; re-entered on December 4, 2018; TD reached on December 21, 2018; fracked 3/30/20 - 4/20/20; 33 million gallons of water; 93.3% water by mass;
  • 32068, A/F, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34H, North Fork, first production, 9/20; t--; cum 181K 12/20;

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The Graphic

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Production

32068:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2020233181131880326146968268184970
BAKKEN11-2020305520455297457991199511124397396
BAKKEN10-20203159066588594582112170711000011586
BAKKEN9-20201334676344822397568912634025474
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-2020001690000
BAKKEN6-202031690133181206633573
BAKKEN6-20190000000

32070:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2020314741847143412101079711056511502
BAKKEN11-2020814490145691509729624277701825
BAKKEN10-20201523655237652253154988496995235
BAKKEN9-202029481854835348931107634990278550
BAKKEN8-20203163027633276517113948412218117247
BAKKEN7-2020265567355185490531159631123843516
BAKKEN6-2020225006795616358258
BAKKEN6-20190000000

32065:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20203132753327194130882523807431155
BAKKEN11-20203038004380564697494153882615801
BAKKEN10-20202838858387325004689431808298513
BAKKEN9-20201724688249843011059815550334751
BAKKEN8-20203162430621947099014478212682217902
BAKKEN7-202071491015382127213059529650928
BAKKEN6-2020467001421616751181494
BAKKEN6-20190000000

32071:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20203027643279572950767056664660
BAKKEN11-20203030462302913194371306656635484
BAKKEN10-202030361363594540654831697191611098
BAKKEN9-20201721889221362468951376471954139
BAKKEN8-202031473474798957151105317963278908
BAKKEN7-20202438217374604232778894788350
BAKKEN6-2020454001348117141169545
BAKKEN6-20190000000

Updating Those 1Q19 Wells With No IP At Time They Came Off Confidential List, Part 1 -- February 2, 2021

I am in the process of updating the wells that came off the confidential list in 1Q19 but were either not completed (DUCs) or had no IP. I've gone through about one-third to one-half of all those wells in 1Q19. 

These wells were on drl status last time I check. Now updated:

  • 23937, 759, XTO, FBIR Yellowwolf 21X-10F, Heart Butte -- look how old this permit is; t8/19; cum 143K 12/20;
  • 23940, 244, XTO, FBIR Ironwoman 21X-10F, Heart Butte -- look how old this permit is; t9/19; cum 129K 12/20;
  • 35035, A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9D, Heart Butte, t--; cum 140K 12/20;
  • 32065, A/F, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34B, North Fork, t--; cum 212K 12/20;

This well was inactive last time I checked. Now updated:

  • 33646, 1,421  CLR, Omlid 8-19H, Elidah, 4 sections, t12/18; cum 255K 12/20;

These wells were DUCs waiting to be completed last time I checked. Now updated:

  • 32273, 797, Slawson, Submariner Federal 7-23-20TFH, Big Bend, t6/19; cum 134K 1/20; off line 2/20; remains off line 12/20;
  • 30890, 982, Oasis, Stenberg 5199 11-9 8B, Poe, t7/19; cum 291K 12/20;
  • 32272, 1,927, Slawson, Submariner Federal 2-23-20H, Big Bend, t6/19; cum 193K 2/20; off line 2/20; remains off line 12/20;
  • 30889, 311, Oasis, Stenberg 5199 11-9 9B, Poe, t7/1; cum 258K 12/20;
  • 30051, 3,090, WPX, Good Voice 34-27HU, Spotted Horn, t1/19; cum 447K 12/20; 
  • 35034, A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9H, Heart Butte, t--; cum 93K 12/20;
  •  35033, A, XTO, RBIR Youngbear 31X-9C, Heart Butte, t--; cum 170K 12/20; 
  •  35032, A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9G, Heart Butte, t--; cum 776K 12/20;
  • 35031, A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9BXC, Heart Butte, t--; cum 130K 12/20; 
  • 34348, 99, XTO, Walton Federal 41X-19BXC, Bear Den, t7/19; cum 265K 12/20; 
  • 34349, 92, XTO, Walton Federal 41x-19F2, Bear Den, t7/19; cum 129K 12/20;
  • 34350, 19, XTO, Walton Federal 41X-19C, Bear Den, t7/19; cum 321K 12/20; 
  • 29404, 1,046, Oasis, Seattle Federal 5200 42-35 8B, Camp, t1/19; cum 293K 12/20; 
  • 32071, A, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34AXD, North Fork, t--; cum 202K 12/20; 
  • 32070, A, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34D, North Fork, t--; cum 253K 12/20; 
  • 32068, A, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34H, North Fork, t--; cum 181K 12/20; 
  • 32067, A, XTO, Maddy Federal 24X-34F, North Fork, t--; cum 252K 12/20;
  • 28951, 2,362, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-4, Alkali Creek, t6/19; cum 172K 12/20; 
  • 28952, 2,999, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-5, Alkali Creek, t5/19; cum 226K 12/20;
  • 34920, 883, XTO, Christiana 21X-6F, West Capa, t5/19; cum 159K 12/20; 
  • 28953, 2,464, Hess, EN-Jeffrey-155-94-2215H-6, Alkali Creek, t5/19; cum 153K 12/20;

These wells had significant production since last checked.

  • 20342, 1,430, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-4B-9-1H, Charlson, t11/11; cum 1.152452 million bbls 12/20; went over one million bbls crude oil;
  • 34249, 32 (no typo), BR, Raider 1B MBH, Twin Valley, t1/19; cum 283K 12/20; 
  • 35197, 2,646, Hess, CA-E Burdick-LE-155-95-2017H-1, Capa, t3/19; cum 231K 12/20;
  • 32925, 13 (no typo), BR, Renegade 34-10MBH, Sand Creek, t12/18; cum 202K 12/20; 
  • 30316, 2,159, Hess, EN-Weyrauch C-154-93-2932H-11, Robinson Lake, t12/18; cum 303K 12/20;

Another Metric Added To "Data Links" Page -- February 2, 2021.

Another metric added to "data links"page. A "beta test" page by the EIA.

Side-by-side comparison: link here.

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SpaceX

When will that first manned flight be ready to go? 

After today's second explosion in as many attempted landing, this from CNBC:

Elon Musk previously said that Starship could potentially fly people in 2020 [wasn't that last year?], but he’s since acknowledged that the rocket still has many milestones, including “hundreds of missions,” to go before that happens.

For the archives.  

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This Isn't Rocket Science

I see that a Harvard professor has come up with five activities that can increase your happiness fast and they're free. I can come up with five activities I wish I could do -- five activities that would increase my happiness immensely and would be completely free:

  • take Sophia to Tutor Time without wearing a mask
  • stop by the apartment manager's office to say "hi" without wearing a mask
  • walking through the grocery store without wearing a mask
  • having a document notarized at AAA without wearing a mask
  • going to the public library without wearing a mask

However, having said that, here's what I'm looking forward to ... all right around the corner --

  • grilling on the Weber again
  • crawdad season --- very soon
  • sitting poolside early in the morning, reading, watching the birds
  • swimming late in the evening

Another Incredible Oil Story Going Forward? February 2, 2021

Social media, business news, oil journals suggest we could be on the verge of another incredible oil story going forward over the next ten years.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

With regard to energy, does it come down to this: oil, renewable energy (wind and/or solar), nuclear? 

If there is something else, I am not aware of what it might be. No, it's not hydrogen. LOL.

Coal is out, except in China.

Nuclear is going away, except perhaps in Japan. 

Saudi Arabia thinks there will be a crude oil deficit by the end of the year. Others have suggested the same thing. 

The United States is going to spend a lot of resources / is going to waste a lost of resources on renewable energy over the next four years.

If the administration is successful in curtailing the US oil sector, the Mideast will easily make up the shortfall.

Now note: the opening sentence: "....on the verge of another incredible oil story going forward over the next ten years."

The pivot to "all EV" will occur faster than the renewable industry can keep up. We'll see that in five years. 

Policies in the western world will drive us toward renewable energy, away from fossil fuels. 

The gradual increase in the price of energy will be like the frog on a log in ever-increasing heated water. 

Five years from now it will be obvious to all that there is simply not enough water or land on which to put all the wind and solar farms necessary to provide all the energy needed for all the nuclear energy plants shut down. 

At some point, renewable energy will max out. 

And that will be that. 

Five years. 

See this article. Archived.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

 

Petro-Harvester With Four New Permits Along The Canadian Border, North Of Williston -- February 2, 2012

Not so super: Super Bowl tickets not so super less than a week out. If this is accurate this tells me that folks buy tickets for the experience and not for the game. With hotels, bars, restaurants, "closed down," fewer folks are interested. In addition, do you really think high rollers want to expose themselves to super spreaders at events like this? I don't think there's any correlation between tickets sold for stadium seats and the television audience we will see. Pandemic-adjusted, this will be the most-watched Super Bowl in history.

Ameritrade commercial showing now: setting -- in an airport terminal. No social distancing and no one wearing masks. Speaks volumes.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: up over 2% today, after a great run earlier; up $1.21; trading at $54.76 at close. Whoo-hoo!

Active rigs:

$54.76
2/2/202102/02/202002/02/201902/02/201802/02/2017
Active Rigs1454645740

Four new permits, #, 38109 - 38112, inclusive --

  • Operator: Petro Harvester
  • Field: Leaf Mountain (Burke County, along the Canadian border, straight north of Williston, maybe a bit east of Williston)
  • Comments:
    • Petro Harvester has four permits in Leaf Mountain, NWNW 19-161-93,
      • 38109, LFM2, AMB, 625 FNL 800 FWL
      • 38110, LFM2, BTF, 590 FNL 800 FWL,
      • 38111, LFM2, BMB, 555 FNL 800 FWL,
      • 38112, LFM2, ATF, 520 FNL 800 FWL,

Apparently they missed one yesterday:

  • another Newfield Production Company well acquired by Ovintiv Production Inc.

Chinese Flu Watch -- February 2, 2021

From social media about 30 minutes ago, 6:00 p.m. CT, February 2, 2021. If this holds true, the "stampede" for the vaccine will be overwhelming.....regardless of what Front Line Doctors or other naysayers have to say.

The neurologic sequalae of naturally-occurring Covid-19 should scare anyone that's paying attention.

Before we get to the US vaccine rollout, Russian Covid-19 vaccine was reportedly highly effective in trial, boosting Moscow's rollout ambitions -- study reported in Lancet (well known for "issues" with vaccine studies and reporting); story reported in WSJ

Now, the US vaccine rollout. 

As mentioned earlier, the best days to track the vaccination rollout, all things being equal, are Tuesday and Friday. 

And today it's Tuesday.

The following numbers are taken directly from the CDC.



A

B

C

D

E

F



Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Percent of doses given/doses received over previous 24 hours

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered

Tuesday

February 2, 2021

52,657,675

2,721,225

32,780,860

558,458

20.52%

62.25%

Monday

February 1, 2021

49,936,450

3,200

32,222,402

1,099,103

34346.97%

64.53%

Sunday

January 31, 2021

49,933,250

400

31,123,299

1,545,397

386349.25%

62.33%

Saturday

January 30, 2021

49,932,850

716,350

29,577,902

1,693,241

236.37%

59.24%

Friday

January 29, 2021

49,216,500

830,225

27,884,661

1,690,979

203.68%

56.66%

Thursday

January 28, 2021

48,386,275

1,155,325

26,193,682

1,541,048

133.39%

54.13%

Wednesday

January 27, 2021

47,230,950

2,836,875

24,652,634

1,111,640

39.19%

52.20%

Tuesday

January 26, 2021

44,394,075

2,975,750

23,540,994

806,751

27.11%

53.03%

Monday

January 25, 2021

41,418,325

6,775

22,734,243

885,588

13071.41%

54.89%

Sunday

January 24, 2021

41,411,550

0

21,848,655

1,310,665


52.76%

Saturday

January 23, 2021

41,411,550

1,519,150

20,537,990

696,269

45.83%

49.59%

Friday

January 22, 2021

39,892,400

1,932,400

19,841,721

1,392,433

72.06%

49.74%

Thursday

January 21, 2021

37,960,000

1,969,850

18,449,288

1,924,007

97.67%

48.60%

Wednesday

January 20, 2021

35,990,150


16,525,281



45.92%

 


A

B

C

D

E

F



Total Doses Administered

Number of People Receiving 1 Or More Doses

Number of People Receiving 2 Doses

Number of People Considered Fully Immunized

Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day

Percent (B+C)/A

Percent Of Americans With 2 Doses

February 2, 2021

32,780,860

26,440,836

6,064,792


558,458.00

99.16%

8.01%

February 1, 2021

32,222,402

26,023,153

5,927,847


1,099,103.00

99.16%

7.89%

January 31, 2021

31,123,299

25,201,143

5,657,142


1,545,397.00

99.15%

7.64%

January 30, 2021

29,577,902

24,064,165

5,259,693


1,693,241.00

99.14%

7.29%

January 29, 2021

27,884,661

22,858,318

4,780,888


1,690,979.00

99.12%

6.93%

January 28, 2021

26,193,682

21,698,606

4,263,056


1,541,048.00

99.11%

6.58%

January 27, 2021

24,652,634

20,687,970

3,801,053


1,147,640.00

99.34%

6.27%

January 26, 2021

23,504,994

19,902,237

3,481,921


770,751.00

99.49%

6.03%

January 25, 2021

22,734,243

19,252,279

3,346,390


885,588.00

99.40%

5.83%

Jan 24, 2021

21,848,655

18,502,131

3,216,836


1,310,665.00

99.41%

5.61%

Jan 23, 2021

20,537,990

17,390,345

3,027,865


1,430,031.00

99.42%

5.27%

Jan 22, 2021

19,107,959

16,243,093

2,756,953



99.44%

4.92%

Observations:

  • goal: at least one million doses administered daily; that's the low bar; high bar: three million doses per day;
  • note: 558,458 doses given in most recent 24-hour time period reported; well short of one million;
  • other number to watch: number of doses delivered

Percent of doses used:

  • North Dakota, #1: 82%
  • West Virginia, #2: 81%
  • New York State (Governor Cuomo says his state is doing great: 66%
  • California: 63%
  • Texas: 61%
  • Florida: 56%
Meanwhile, the number of new cases is plummeting across the US now that the post-Christmas surge has passed.