Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Reality Sucks -- News From Norway -- October 2, 2019

Wow, this is really interesting.

From what I recall, for now, but links as I find them.

First, for those following this story, you might remember that Norway, to do its part in the war against global warming was going to divest itself of all holdings in oil companies.


And, most folks know that Norway has so much money from state oil, that it's the richest country per capita in the universe -- except for maybe one or two other countries.

And because it's so rich, Norway can divest all its holdings in oil companies.

But then something happened.

Norway had to take some money "out of savings" to meet their budget/expenditures -- low price of oil was crimping their style.

I thought that was pretty much the end of that story.

Now I read that Norway has decided to divest only a small part of its total oil holdings.

Reality sucks.

Some links:

Waiting for Tesla

Later, 4:29 p.m. CT: finally, the numbers are out. Link here
  • deliveries in 3Q19:
    • Elon Musk's goal: 100,000
    • Wall Street estimates: 95,700 - 98,000
    • EV site, estimate (see below): 55,000
    • actual: 97,0000
    • Model 3 deliveries per Tesla's press release: 79,600
  • shares of TSLA dropped 4% in after-hours trading
  • Tesla expected to report 3Q19 earnings later this month (October, 2019)
    • analysts expect a loss of 42 cents/share

Link here.

Still waiting for press release or media report -- 10:41 a.m CT, October 2, 2019 --

Disclaimer: in a long note like this with a lot of numbers there will be typographical and factual errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

After these numbers were released, TSLA continued to drop slightly.

The Tesla numbers (July, August, September, 2019):
  • Model 3: 13,450; 13,150; 20,250 -- subtotal: 46,850
  • Model X: 1,225; 1,825; 1,650 -- subtotal: 4,700
  • Model S: 975; 1,050; 1,100 -- subtotal: 3,125
  • total for 3Q19: 54,675
Total for year so far (nine months): 138,575
  • Model 3: 114,500
  • Model X: 13,725
  • Model S: 10,350
TSLA shrs today: down 1.5% -- hardly anything when the overall market (the Dow) dropped another 500 points.

Elon Musk wants to report 100,000 cars delivered in most recent report. Consensus: 98,000 delivered EVs. That would be a huge Tesla record.

But investors want to see 100,000+.

EV sales here.

US Auto Sales for 3Q19

GM misses 3Q19 consensus. And this was mostly before the strike.

Ford and Chrysler beat. Whoo-hoo! Link here.

Also, here:

Profits matter, not units sold -- ask Elon Musk. Not to be taken out of context (some numbers rounded).
  • total vehicle sales, down 5%
  • high-margin trucks: up almost 10% (actual, 8.8%)
  • oh, oh -- high margin SUVs" down over 10% (actually, down 10.5%)
  • cars, not unexpected; time to get out of this business, at least for now, or move to "all EVs": down almost 30% (actual, 29.5%)
  • van sales: the world's best selling cargo van, the Ford Transit -- turned in a new record -- sales were up 21% -- sets an all-time third-quarter record
  • SUVs
    • SUV sales down, but look at this: Expedition sales expanded 48%!
    • maybe this is the reason for lower SUV sales: Ford completed its sell-down of 2019 models
    • And then we see this: Lincoln SUVs report the best third quarter sales since 2003 led by the new Nautilus
    • Nautilus sales jumped 24%, on top of the 15% gain in the second quarter 
  • pricing much improved; a $2,200 increase per vehicle, year-over-year

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