Tuesday, July 28, 2020

Only One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- July 28, 2020

KODAK! Boom! Trading at just under $10 this morning; jumping $6 in pre-market trading. 

Oh-oh: Oprah's O Mag to end regular print editions after 20 years.  

Fast and furious:
  • Papa John's to hire 10,000 workers: pizza travels well
  • McDonald's global sales suffer more than expected: French fries don't travel well at all; I have no sympathy for McDonald's; they extended lock down longer than mandated here in Texas; but their big problem? French fries simply do not travel well.
  • Panera Bread looking to be the Netflix of delivery
  • Pfizer tops 2Q20 earnings forecast; guidance upped; shares surge (well, that was the headline, but shares did not jump all that much)
  •  Companies like AT&T will benefit from interest rate cuts; just a matter of time before rates go negative; will play havoc with insurance companies; 
  • US mint cutting back on deliveries to it authorized purchasers. Link here. Production at West Point complex will slow for next 12 to 18 months. China Panda is one of my favorite. The US Silver Eagle, $1 1-oz brilliant uncirculated coin has almost doubled in past year; I used to buy them for about $20/coin; now I see they are selling for $38/coin from the same dealer
OPEC basket: not by much, but down for the 2nd consecutive day, down to $43.14. Saudi can't' make it on $40-oil; nor can Russia. See next story.

OPEC plans for end game: Reuters. OPEC prepares for an age of dwindling demand.
OPEC has been scaling back expectations. In 2007, it forecast world demand would hit 118 million bpd in 2030. By last year, its 2030 forecast had dropped to 108.3 million bpd. Its November report is expected to show another downward revision, one OPEC source says.
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1259626035

One well coming off the confidential list -- Tuesday, July 28, 2020: 68 for the month; 68 for the quarter, 514 for the year:
RBN Energy: a fight is brewing for Canada's propane exports.
Propane exports from AltaGas and Vopak’s Ridley Island Propane Export Terminal on the west coast of British Columbia jumped to 52 Mb/d in May, the highest since it began operations in May 2019 and exceeding the terminal’s original design capacity for the second time this year. The increased exports suggest expanded capacity at the facility and the potential for sustained higher exports from there even as Western Canada’s propane supplies plateaued in 2019 and then were hammered lower earlier this year as oil prices and demand collapsed.
The resulting tighter balance in the greater Pacific Northwest region has boosted prices there, wreaking havoc on price spreads and disrupting rail movements to U.S. destinations that have relied on them for the past few years, from the Midwest to California. Moreover, Western Canadian export capacity is poised to nearly double by next spring, when a second nearby export terminal is slated to begin operations. With supply upside looking tenuous, but overseas exports set to rise further in early 2021, there is a serious squeeze emerging for propane rail exports to the U.S. Today, we consider the implications of what could be a much tighter propane market in Western Canada over the next few years.

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