Tuesday, August 28, 2018

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, T+14 -- August 28, 2018

Making America great again: it's ironic that Trump will be impeached in 2019 when the US is doing so incredibly well. On top of everything else, look at the consumer confidence index today. Something tells me the GOP will suffer immensely if they let the charade go through when the economy is doing so well; as Larry Kudlow says, the "US is crushing it"
  • highest level since October, 2000 -- two lost decades: Bush II and Obama
  • when you look back on Obama: one word -- lazy; what was he doing for eight years? [by the way, Obama himself characterized himself as "lazy" soon after he entered office]
  • when you look back on Bush II: intellectually "un-curious"; in street language: "didn't have a clue"
  • I digress
  • back to today's consumer confidence index
  • Americans are happy with an index of 100
  • I would be happy with an index of 100 after all we've been through
  • what was the estimate? 126.7. LOL. Analysts thought consumer confidence would fall slightly from last month's 127.4. (The "decimal" precision is "false precision" -- something even Sophia at age four years knows, but I digress again)
  • the analysts: weren't they paying attention to two things?
    • retail sales
    • connecting retail sales and decreased gasoline demand
  • so, if the estimate was 126.7, what was the actual number? An incredible 133.4
  • repeat: 133.4 -- the best in almost two decades
  • "lost decade"
  • the first time I tagged a post with "lost decade" was back on January 3, 2011; it wasn't until almost five years later that mainstream media was starting to write about the "lost decade" -- which they associated with Bush II; it will be another five years before the mainstream media starts associating the second lost decade with Obama (second lost decade, tag)
  • like posts on global warming, talking about the second lost decade gets tedious
Trade wars: some think China has more staying power than the US. Remember this: US retail is starting to put in their orders for Christmas now; by the end of August, maybe September at the latest, US retailers will have put in their buy orders. 

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