Back To The Bakken
RBN Energy: why US LNG won't face Australia's natural gas supply problem.
The U.S. and Australia have been ramping up their LNG exports — Australia already is the world’s second-largest LNG exporter after Qatar and the U.S. will soon rank third.
Two recent events highlight the difference between the two countries and their natural gas markets.
First, in June the Australian prime minister acted to curtail LNG exports next year because of gas-supply shortages affecting domestic consumers.
Second, on July 19, the Potential Gas Committee released its biennial analysis of recoverable gas resources in the U.S.; its findings support the view that U.S. LNG exports can continue growing without causing domestic supply constraints.
Today we review the PGC report and the Australian LNG/supply situation, then compare the two markets.
There are real similarities — and noteworthy differences — between the U.S. and Australia. They’re similar in size (Australia’s land mass is slightly smaller than the Lower 48). Both were British colonies before establishing stable, long-lasting democratic governments. Both call their currency the dollar, and both are blessed with extraordinary scenery and natural resources. Big differences stand out, though. Australia’s population is only 24 million, an astounding 300 million fewer than the U.S. — heck, Texas alone has four million more people than The Land Down Under. And, as we will discuss today, there appears to be a big gap between the U.S. and Australia in the respective capacity of their natural gas sectors to accommodate a big ramp-up in LNG exports.Chevron: swung to a 2Q17 profit even as refining returns fell short. From Bloomberg. Data points that stand out:
- Chevron's production was the most in more than seven years
- adjusted, the company earned 91 cents, beating estimates of 87 cents; unadjusted, they missed by 10 cents
- cost cuts erased $50 billion from Chevron's market capitalization
- more production for less money
- cuts in CAPEX to continue
- in passing, despite the headline: "the company also reported shrinking returns from its refining unit.
- meanwhile, analysts expected XOM production to climb 1.5%, bu tin fact dropped almost 1%, and in a low-price environment, a double whammy