Friday, July 28, 2017

Huge First Read On 2Q17 GDP; Trump Rally Continues; Busy, Busy, Busy -- We've Only Just Begun -- July 28, 2017

First read on 2Q17: GDP -- "a big number, holy cow -- 1.4 last time ... this time, 2.6%." Rick Santelli and CNBC had it immediately.  Maria and FBN had the number in a crawler but very, very late in discussing it. I give CNBC the "win" on this one.  Steve Liesman not impressed: still not a 3% economy. But to his credit, Well, duh. "Full employment, not much more growth can be squeezed out of this." Liesman says 2.5% would be a huge win, a victory. [I guess that reflects how bad the growth was in the previous economy.]

Poll. With the first read of the 2Q17 GDP, we can close out the poll, in which we asked if my exuberance on the US economy:
  • right on target: 38%
  • misplaced: 2%
  • somewhere in between; leaning optimistic: 52%
  • somewhere in between; leaning pessimistic: 9%
GDP Now: the final forecast, yesterday, was for 2.8

Earnings, XOM: misses on earnings; beats on revenues; revenues, $62.88 billion vs $61.98 billion forecast; earnings, huge miss, 78 cents vs 84 cents. Shares in pre-market: down almost 2%, now below $80.

Earnings, CVX: 77 cents per share, vs 78 cents forecast, but not adjusted; shares of CVX in pre-market: flat on news (slightly negative).

Earnings, Baker Hughes: loss of $179 million; adjusted, 11 cents/share.

The Atlantic: just bought by Steve Jobs' wife.

Game of Thrones: viewership up 50% y-o-y. HBO.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs603573193207

RBN Energy: what reported oil and gas reserves reveal, and what they don't. This should be very, very interesting. I will read it later.
When prospective investors look at a company’s U.S. or Canadian regulatory filings, many of them may mistakenly believe they are getting a complete and accurate assessment of the crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) that could technically and economically be produced from the acreage the company controls. In fact, the rules governing the tallying of proved reserves are anything but straightforward and often result in a significant underestimation of the hydrocarbon volumes waiting to be produced. That is particularly true when it comes to reserves in shale plays, which many would argue are the most important reserves of all in today’s energy market. Today we begin a blog series that considers the arcane world of corporate reporting of proved hydrocarbon reserves and the importance of understanding the reporting rules.
Stories To Return To

I'm Back! TransAmerica launches open season for Keystone XL pipeline system. Nebraska will make decision, November, 2017.

Boom: total US petroleum deliveries reach 10-year peak in June.

Didn't I just post this suggestion: if Petronas can't build terminal in Canada, perhaps Petroanas could work with the US. I suggest the very same thing just a day or so ago. Original note here.

Worse than reported: drilling consultant believes reported layoff numbers too low. I had seen 300,000 as the number of frackers lost during the downturn. In this linked article, it is suggested that the overall job loss "officially" reported at 440,000 is too low; more likely, 688,000 (publicized global oil and gas layoffs since 2014).

Hiding something? Saudia Aramco advisers favor listing in London; disclosure rules less stringent. I won't be coming back to this one; the headline pretty much says it all. 

It Never Quits

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