Thursday, December 25, 2014

Several "Huge IP" Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Christmas Day And Boxing Day, December 25, 2014

As you go through the list below, think about this. Most of these wells were drilled six months ago, back in June, 2014. We still have July, August, September, and October, and probably November, and December (of 2014), to get through before the current slump in oil prices starting affecting things. Spread this observation across all the unconventional shale across the US and one can see the glut of oil isn't likely to slow down quickly. [It turns out this was said back on December 9, 2014:
It will take six months or so to whittle away the 1m barrels a day of excess oil on the market – with US crude falling to $50 - given that supply and demand are both “inelastic” in the short-run.]
I know I'm not saying that correctly, but hopefully you get the point. Mixing metaphors, I suppose: there are at least a year's worth of wells in the Bakken pipeline yet to come on line. Peak oil? LOL.

Richard Zeits talks about the "myth" of the oil glut, but RBN Energy suggests "we're" already maxing out with regard to storage sites in North America.

The wells reported here do not represent the response to the slump in oil prices; way too early to see that response.

Note the amount of proppant EOG used in that Wayzetta middle Bakken well, and also note the amount of proppant CLR is using.

Friday, December 26, 2014:
  • 25747, 915, EOG, Wayzetta 29-1424H, Parshall, 43 stages; 13.6 million lbs sand; conditioning unit on site, s10/19; TD10/31, middle Bakken, 1920 acres, t4/14; cum 138K 11/14; 
  • 27144, 2,256, QEP, Kirkland 2-23-14TH, Grail, t9/14; cum 57K 11/14; 
  • 27145, 2,213, QEP, Kirkland 4-23-14BH, Grail, t9/14; cum 62K 11/14; 
  • 27146, 2,172, QEP, Kirkland 3-23-14BH, Grail, t9/14; cum 63K 11/14; 
  • 27430, 930, WPX, Roggenbuck 4-9HW, Van Hook, t11/14; cum --  
  • 27705, 2,163, QEP, Kirkland 22-15-23-14LL, Grail, t9/14; cum 72K 11/14; 
  • 27791, 2,096, QEP, TAT 1-33-28BH, Grail, t8/14; cum 70K 11/14;
  • 27792, 1,664, QEP, TAT 2-33-28-BH, Grail, t8/14 cum 64K 11/14; 
  • 27816, drl, QEP, TAT 33-28-34-27LL, Grail, s4/14; cum 63K 11/14; 
  • 28084, drl, CLR, Holte 2-32H, Stoneview, no production data 
  • 28099, drl, Hess, EN-Dobrovolny A-155-94-2413H-7, Manitou, no production data, 
  • 28157, drl, MRO, Snow Bird USA 31-17TFH, Van Hook, no production data, 
  • 28501, 370, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-22-15H-1, Alexandria, t9/14; cum 11K 11/14;  
Thursday, December 25, 2014
  • 26889, 704, Oasis, Brier 5200 44-22 4T2, Camp, t6/14; cum 37K 11/14; interesting production profile; 
  • 27632, 514, OXY USA, Kary 3-24-13H-144-97, Cabernet, t6/14; cum 47K 11/14; interesting production profile;
  •  27633, 519, OXY USA, Kary 4-24-13H-144-97, Cabernet, t6/14; cum 50K 11/14; interesting production profile; 
  • 27941, drl, Hess, GN-Cambrian-159-98-2536H-2, Big Stone, no production data, 
  • 28042, drl, SM Energy, Torgeson 2-15HS, West Ambrose, no production data, 
  • 28085, drl, CLR, Holte 3-32H1, Stoneveiw, no production data, 
  • 28098, drl, Hess, EN-Dobrovolny A-155-94-2413H-6, Manitou, no production data, 28238, 838, MRO, Hollingsworth 24-22TFH, Chimney Butte, t9/14; cum 17K 10/14; 
  • 28357, drl, MRO, Davis 24-22H, Bailey, no production data, 28405, 980, CLR, Harrisburg 1-34H, Indian Hill, t10/14; cum 23K 10/14;  
  • 28599, conf, Oasis, Chalmers 5301 44-24 3BR, Baker, no production data, 

25747, see above, EOG, Wayzetta 29-1424H, Parshall

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

27144, see above, QEP, Kirkland 2-23-14TH, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

 27145, see above, QEP, Kirkland 4-23-14BH, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

27146, see above, QEP, Kirkland 3-23-14BH, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

27705, see above, QEP, Kirkland 22-15-23-14LL, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

27791, see above, QEP, TAT 1-33-28BH, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

27792, see above, QEP, TAT 2-33-28-BH, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

27816, see above, QEP, TAT 33-28-34-27LL, Grail:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold


  1. Bruce:

    I think we can expect the percentage of high IP wells to increase but the number to decrease. That's because less total will get drilled but they will try to concentrate on sweet spots. It happened pretty strongly in 2009. Maybe a little less strong impact this time, since HBP was not so much an issue last year as in 2008. But still some.

    1. I agree ... assuming the slump in the price of oil continues through 2015 (and I would be surprised if the slump doesn't continue through 2015). The point I was trying to make above, is that wells in North Dakota come off the confidential list six months after they are spud (generally speaking). The Saudi announcement was made at the end of November (Thanksgiving for Americans) -- although the price of crude had started to fall in October (I'm using October 1, 2014, as the beginning of the slump). Wells from July, 2014, are yet to come off the confidential list, and wells drilled between July, 2014, and October, 2014, were not based on slump in oil prices (at least as far as what the "man-on-the-street" -- like me, sees). With the amount of planning, commitments, contracts, already in place, I would also hazard a guess that this applies to wells through February, 2015, or thereabouts.

      I agree with you; if the price of oil is projected to remain low through 2015 (and beyond) it will affect drilling in the Bakken, but we won't see that effect for several months simply because wells don't come off confidential list for six months.

      The slight decrease in production in October was not due to the slump in prices; fully one-third of October no fracking was completed. In addition, operators going into late 2014 were choking back or changing plans based on the new flaring rules, and then the new conditioning rules coming on-line.

      Another point is that if there is a glut of crude oil now, it will only continue to get worse, for at least six more months simply because of all the oil in the pipeline yet to be reported.