Sunday, September 2, 2018

This One Case Speaks Volumes About The Future / The Potential Of The Bakken -- September 2, 2018

From the September, 2018, hearing dockets:
  • 26952, Newfield, Siverston-Bakken; 14 wells on an existing 640-acre unit, section 13-149-98; McKenzie
The graphic:

The one producing well in that 640-acre unit:
  • 18689, 1,869, Newfield, Bluefin 1-13H, Siverston, the middle Bakken is 44 feet thick here, 54K lbs mesh; 502K lbs sand; 980K lbs ceramic proppant, t5/10; cum 122K 7/18;
Shortly after I started blogging about the Bakken I said that if you had one Bakken well, you would eventually have four wells; maybe 8 wells, possibly 16 wells, and possibly many, many more than that. Well, it's very possible that the Newfield Bluefin well will soon have fourteen more neighbors.

I wonder what #26612, in the section to the west, is doing?
  • 26612, 1,507, Newfield, Hoffman 149-98-14-23-2H, Pembroke, t8/14; cum 187K 7/18; 
Now, go back and read the linked NY Times article at this post from earlier this morning.

By the way, "everyone" keeps talking about the "dreaded decline rate" in the Bakken.

Take a look at this well (at this link) -- the full production profile.

I'm not sure this well has paid for itself yet. At 187K bbls and $50/bbl = $9 million. I

f it hasn't paid for itself yet, it must be getting close.

It's decline rate was typical for a Bakken well -- dropping rapidly the first year, but by the end of the second year, production had leveled off and remained practically unchanged over the last two to three years. It's amazing, this well is only four years old. This well will go on producing for 30 years. It will be re-worked. It will be re-fracked -- mini-re-fracks and major re-fracks. It will be positively impacted when neighboring wells are fracked. If history is any guide, a full re-frack will result in a "new" well.

Imagine buying a single-unit rental house four years ago for $$10 million. Over the next four or five years you get enough rental income to pay off the house, and deduct mortgage payments, business expenses along the way. And then the renter continues to pay the same rent for decades, perhaps even going up a bit. And there's a good chance the property could appreciate. And with remodeling (re-fracks) the house appreciates in value. And you can use the collateral of this one house to buy a four-unit apartment complex. 

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