Tuesday, September 5, 2017

The Political Page, T+228 -- September 5, 2017 -- Latest GDP Forecast Up To 3.2%

Politico: cognitive dissonance. Americans filled seasonal jobs at higher pay due to Trump's visa squeeze upsets Politico. Can't make this stuff up.

Paul Ryan urges Trump to keep DACA. US Congress has six months to do just that. What's the problem? Oh, this is the problem:
  • six months of talk on ObamaCare: no action, no change
  • six months of talk on tax reform: no action, no change
  • six months of talk on DACA: no action, no change
I see a pattern developing here.

Thomas Friedman, New York Times columnist: excellent, excellent interview on CNBC  this morning. I assume the producer couldn't end that interview fast enough. A reader sent a link to a recent Friedman presentation which he referenced in his CNBC interview this morning. See comments.

Something to talk aboutLatest GDP forecast: 3.2 percent — September 1, 2017.
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.2 percent on September 1, down from 3.3 percent on August 31.
The forecasts of third-quarter real consumer spending and nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 2.8 percent and 6.1 percent to 3.0 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively, after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The model's estimate of the dynamic factor for August—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—increased from 0.11 to 0.41 after the reports.
These increases were more than offset by declines in the forecasted growth rates of real government spending and real nonresidential structures investment from 0.2 percent and 2.6 percent to -0.7 percent and -3.3 percent, respectively, after the employment report and this morning's construction spending release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The World's 20 Greatest Unsolved Problems
edited by John Vacca
c. 2005

Someone recently wrote that the three greatest unsolved problems are:
  • origin of the universe
  • origin of life
  • origin of consciousness
Part I
Astronomy and Cosmology

Chapter 1: Astronomy: The Mystery of Dark Matter
Chapter 2: Cosmology: The Creation of the Universe
Chapter 3: Theoretical Cosmology and Particle Physics: The Cosmological Constant Problem

Part II
Physics and Astrophysics

Chapter 4: Gravity: The Construction of a Consistent Quantum Theory of Gravity
Chapter 5: Particle Physics: The Mechanism That Makes Fundamental Mass
Chapter 6: Particle Physics and Astrophysics: The Solar Neutrino Problem
Chapter 7: Astrophysics: The Source of Gamma-Ray Bursts
Chapter 8: Theoretical High-Energy Physics: The Unification of the Basic Forces
Chapter 9: Solid State Physics: The Mechanism Behind High-Temperature Superconductors

Part III
Biology and Paleontology

Chapter 10: Biology: How the Basic Processes of Life Are Carried Out by DNA and Proteins
Chapter 11: Biology: Protein Folding
Chapter 12: Paleontology: How Present-Day Microbiological Information Can Be Used to Reconstruction "The Ancient Tree of Life"

Part IV

Chapter13: Free Will
Chapter 14: Consciousness

Part V

Chapter 15: The Dynamics of the Inner Earth
Chapter 16 Earthquake Predicting

Part VI

Chapter 17: How Microscopic Atomic Forces Produce Various Macroscopic Behaviors
Chapter 18: The Fabrication and Manipulation of Carbon-Based Structures (Fullerenes)

Part VII

Chapter 19: Free Energy
Chapter 20: Nuclear Fusion and Waste

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