Monday, June 2, 2014

This Is What We Will Be Talking About Monday, June 2, 2014

There are two big events tomorrow: a) President Obama's new war-on-coal rules will be released; and, b) Apple will host the WWDC, San Francisco.

I was curious which one would get the most media attention. Then I read that President Obama won't actually be on stage when the new rules are announced:
Obama, who will not be present when EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy unveils the regulations on Monday, visited children suffering from asthma at a medical center on Friday and taped his weekly radio address - on climate change - while there.
So, that event will be a dud. 

By default, the big news event tomorrow will be the Worldwide Developer's Conference. There will be multiple opportunities to access the event live through on-line streaming. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

Futures mean squat but it's all we have at the moment to gauge investor sentiment regarding the new EPA rules on the war-on-coal. Dow futures have been increasing steadily all evening, starting at 6:00 p.m. EDT. Futures were initially (for the Dow) up one point, then up seven points, and now up a remarkable 30 points, rising, as more and more information is posted about the new EPA rules. I say "remarkable" because the market has been reaching new highs almost every day for the past several weeks. Obviously, the new EPA rules are not particularly worrisome for investors. 

Meanwhile, WTI oil futures are also up by a respectable 44 cents and now again above $103/bbl. Natural gas is up 3 cents to $4.58, again, very respectable.

Natural gas is going to be the big winner in the continuing war-on-coal.

Futures mean squat, so it's anybody's guess which way the market will go tomorrow. For everyone it should be a win-win. If the market blows off the new rules (which appears to be the case at the moment), it will be a win for bulls. If the rules are worse than currently being telegraphed, and the market plummets, it's a buying opportunity. The market's response to the new rules will be temporary. Once the 30-30 plan (30% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2040) sinks in, folks will remember that presidents come and go. The year 2030 is a long time from now; the Bakken will only be reaching its stride. The plan will generate a lot of ink, and a lot of campaign dollars for both sides (probably the real intent of the announcement at this point in time) as well as get folks' minds off ObamaCare.

Anyway, bottom lines:
  • Apple's WWDC will be a bigger story tomorrow; very little has leaked out
  • we now know the 30-30 plan; even President Obama won't be on stage to mark this magic moment
  • regardless how the market reacts tomorrow, it will be a win-win for all
I can hardly wait. 

This Magic Moment, Lou Reed

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