Saturday, January 7, 2012

Outstanding Article on China's Oil Consumption

Link here.
My reporting in the United States, and from three other continents in the last few years, clearly indicates that the Bakken development, as well as drilling in the Tyler and Three Forks shale formations, which lie above and below the Bakken, is very likely to persist for at least a generation.

Production in North Dakota has already reached 500,000 barrels per day and, according to industry executives and state oil and gas regulators, will reach 1 million barrels daily within a year. The Bakken contains some 22 billion recoverable barrels, say state officials. The two other shale reserves also contain billions of recoverable barrels, they say.
The linked article continues:
In 2000, China imported 1.4 million barrels per day, or 29 percent of the 4.8 million barrels it consumed each day that year. In 2011, China imported 5.4 million barrels a day, or 58 percent of the 9.2 million barrels it consumed daily. In the last decade, in other words, China’s oil imports more than tripled and its overall oil consumption nearly doubled.

The Energy Information Administration said that the growth in China’s consumption in 2010 and 2011 represented almost 40 percent of the increase in world oil demand during the two-year period.

Having spent weeks in China during four trips from November 2010 to September 2011, and having reported on energy, water, and China’s soaring economy, I saw no evidence that China has any plan other than accelerating its development. China, which last year overtook the U.S. as the largest energy consumer on the planet, is also now the largest market in the world for grain, cars, coal, steel, cement, glass, chemicals, trucks, trains, construction equipment, power plants, dams, etc. The risk to the United States and the global economy from China is that it’s growing so fast, any number of factors — commodity shortages, price increases, inflation, domestic unrest, droughts, floods — will cause Chinese markets to implode.
This is a must read article for all naysayers. The rest of us already know.

I had this album many, many years ago. I should have kept the jacket. Steve Jobs understood the value of album art. Hmmm. 

The City of New Orleans, Arlo Guthrie


  1. I have that album. Arlo Guthrie actually got a draft moral/criminal deferment for littering! I got a moral deferment for being a "suspected high level drug trafficker. Basically I had a week off form work for some medical stuff and decided to got with my fiend to his parents house in Thief River Falls, MN near the Canadian border.

    I had just bought a new two door Ford Custom. I decided to take a day trip up to Winnipeg. Seems the Winnipeg police used unmarked Ford Custom two doors as police cars. I had long hair and a thousand dollars in USA traveler's checks. I decided to check out the local Winnipeg "hippie" culture and the police took me into custody. The Canadian police were going to confiscate the traveler's checks but I gave them some BS about how I could get them invalidated. They bought that line.

    There were those needle marks on my arms! I explained "medical procedures" (true) but the detective just rolled his eyes.

    I had a draft physical a few months later and mentioned the Winnipeg incident. A few month later I got a 1Y with "criminal activity" listed as one of the reasons. Up to this time I had only had a single speeding ticket.

    My employer since I got a drivers licence in high school was in the Air National Guard as were his sons. I used to work at the local base.

    I had no malice against the military but being drafted to go to Vietnam didn't seem appealing. I would have been drafted and ready for duty before early 1971. I didn't know it at the time but ground troops were being rapidly withdrawn.

    An old draft physical joke. I gut came to his draft physical taking about his alien girlfriend and her spaceship. The psychiatrist couldn't shake him from the story. The shrink finally lost his temper, threw down the clipboard and screamed at the guy "You are crazy!".

    The guy picked up the clipboard and pen, handed it to the shrinks and said "Be sure to write that down!".

  2. I can't remember where I posted it, but I posted my lottery number story somewhere. Bottom line, I don't know the story but I think "someone" was watching out for me. Small town. Draft board knew everyone.

  3. I ended up moonlighting at the Air National Guard base where I had worked since age 16. They did need the help. Mostly transport and medical assistance to Central America. I flew along with some of the "day trips" to Fort Ripley, in Northern Minnesota but declined their "One weekend a month" medical, humanitarian and supply trips to Central America. I would schedule my vacation time around this to help "hold down the fort" (literally) when the Guard was in Central America.

  4. It's funny how things work out. I missed the Vietnam draft/experience, but then served 30 years on active duty in Air Force.

    If I could re-live this life, I would do only two things differently. The first: insert four (4) years of US Marines between high school and college.

    The second: too personal to post, at least for now.