Sunday, September 11, 2011

How Exciting Is the Bakken? Update On Three Early Wells in the Bakken, North Dakota, USA

For newbies, some rules of thumb when you look at the wells below:
  • wells in the legacy formations in the Williston Basin often took 15 to 20 years to hit 100,000 bbls; the Bakken wells below are reaching 500,000 in less than three years
  • Bakken wells pay for themselves at the wellhead at 100,000 bbls
  • these wells will go on to produce for 25 more years 
  • the average estimate for production from Bakken wells is 600,000 bbls  over lifetime of the well
  • there are "no" dry Bakken wells

Wayzetta 11-08H, #17127, EOG
  • Spudded: August 27, 2008
  • Completed: November 9, 2008
  • IP: 1,714
  • Cumulative as of July 31, 2011: 437,394
  • Single section
  • Still producing 10,000 bbls/month; almost no water
State 1-16/21H, #18973, Helis
  • Spudded: July 4, 2010
  • Tested: October 25, 2010
  • IP: 2,579
  • Cumulative as of July, 2011 (9 months of production): 221,281, no pump
  • 17,000 bbls most recent month of reporting
  • Two sections
  • Three Forks formation
  • 40K in November, 2010
  • 20K in January, 2011
  • 58K in first 38 days!
Richardson Federal 11-9H, #17158, Whiting
  • Spudded: August 14, 2008
  • Tested: October 22, 2008
  • Cumulative as of July 31, 2011: 602,364 (at $50/bbl --> $30 million)
  • Long lateral
  • Sanish oil field
  • Middle Bakken
  • Currently 10K/month
  • Only on-line 10 days in July; probably taken off-line to put on a pump 
See more of these wells at "Monster Wells"

Target Logistics Video of Man-Camps in the Bakken -- North Dakota, USA

I don't recall uploading this video:

Target Logistics Video, The Bakken, North Dakota
It was dated May 15, 2011, over at

From Carpe Diem: North Dakota Oil Production Sets a Record -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

My second-favorite blog, Carpe Diem, noted North Dakota's record oil production.

Carpe Diem noted that North Dakota set four records. Here's the first one mentioned:
The most oil ever produced in a single month - 13,131,366 barrels - an increase of almost 14% above the previous record in June of 11,544,331 barrels, and a gain of almost 32% from July of last year.  In just a little more than two years (since June 2009), oil production in North Dakota has doubled to its current record-setting level. 
Go to the link to see the other three.

Lest We Forget -- Arab Spring --> Muslim Autumn


December 17, 2015: background. The genesis of Arab Spring. The [London] Telegraph reports.
Mrs Hamdy was the council inspector who, five years ago today confiscated the vegetable stall of a street vendor in her dusty town in central Tunisia.
In despair, that young man set himself on fire in a protest outside the council offices. Within weeks, he was dead, dozens of young Arab men had copied him, riots had overthrown his president, and the Arab Spring was under way.
As the world marks the anniversary, Syria and Iraq are in flames, Libya has broken down, and the twin evils of militant terror and repression stalk the region.
September 4, 2012: Muslim Brotherhood installed through the Egyptian bureaucracy; Egyptian-Americans with homes in both countries will probably not return to Egypt: think Bolshevik Revolution/Dr Zhivago;

September 4, 2012: Egyptian cleric -- "husbands, beat your wives, so they mend their ways."

August 25, 2012:  Syrians rebels appreciate Islamic help, but ...
Justice was swift and brutal when fighters of the Al Nusra Front militia caught a man accused of raping and killing a young girl in front of her father. They beheaded the man and left his body in the street.

The presence of women and children didn't deter them. Neither did the appeals of other rebels at the checkpoint in the embattled neighborhood of Salahuddin.

Members of the Free Syrian Army, the main rebel force, said that the man was a member of a pro-government militia and that they had no doubt he was guilty. They also had no objection to killing him, but they did object to a public beheading.
Public beheadings? Crucifixions? Get used to it. The Islamists will take the Mideast back to the 15th century (or earlier).

August 24, 2012: This is not "Arab Spring." This is "Muslim Autumn." The Bolshevik Revolution stopped Russia's progress in 1917. It took them 50 years to recover; some argue Russia has yet to recover. Muslim Spring, similarly, will set back the middle East -- all the way back to the 15th century. Already, we are seeing it. The first to go: women's rights. This is crazy. Sad. Read Bernard Lewis' What Went Wrong.

August 15, 2012: the Syrian revolution is spilling over into Lebanon. By the way, at the original post, look at the 3-front attack the writer urges for Israel and the last couple of statements:
If Israel initiates conflict in Gaza and fails, it risks making a possibility into a certainty — and Israel has not had many stunning victories for several decades. It could also create a crisis for Egypt’s military rulers, not something the Israelis want. 
Another source for the 3-front war.

The Muslim Brotherhood has just purged Egypt's military leadership. There is no question that the military is in disarray and is in no position to help Palestinians in the Gaza.  Israel has two long-term problems that could be handled in the short term.

August 12, 2012: if this doesn't send shivers up your spine, nothing will -- the Muslim Brotherhood taking control of Egypt is now complete.
Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi has sacked the entire leadership of the country's defense establishment.

Last week, Morsi fired the Head of General Intelligence, General Morad Mu'afi, following the Sinai terror attack in which 16 policemen were killed. Egyptian news sources also said that Morsi had sacked the governor of Sinai.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Morsi appears to be wasting no time in consolidating his hold over power at the expense of the military, which many hoped would be a moderating power over him.
And the events that precipitated this go back squarely to the speech POTUS made in Cairo early in his presidency.
It will be interesting to see how much aid the US sends Egypt for a peaceful transition. I can only assume this is not good for the tourist industry.


Ready to throw the Palestinians under the bus? Yup: the audit trail leads right back to Obama:
Exactly a year ago this week, President Barack Obama stood at the podium at the UN General Assembly and declared his support for a Palestinian state. 
“Palestinians will never know the pride and dignity that comes with their own state,” Mr Obama told the general assembly, unless the two parties reached a peace agreement.

So it will be some degree of awkwardness that Mr Obama returns to the UN this week and directs his representatives to vote against a plan that would lead to Palestinians achieving that exact destination, albeit by a different route.
What's the saying...? "One reaps what one sows."
First, his Cairo speech, and then "throwing Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak under the bus; and now, Saudi has made it very clear, it is the end of a 70-year relationship if the US vetoes a UN vote to grant Palestine statehood. I personally don't get it; this seems exactly what a community organizer would consider his biggest success -- organizing political forces to the point that a "failed state" is granted statehood. I guess it comes down to this: a) veto the UN vote and destroy the 70-year special relationship between Saudi Arabia; or, b) support Palestine in the UN vote, and guarantee losing his Jewish support in the US. This is not rocket science. And to think it all started with a teleprompted speech in Cairo.
Hmmm. The New York Times finally gets it. Unfortunately a day late and a dollar short. Many of my readers saw this months ago, possibly back as far as the president's Cairo speech: Arab Spring will result in three new Islamist nations aligned with Iran
In the emerging post-Qaddafi Libya, the most influential politician may well be Ali Sallabi, who has no formal title but commands broad respect as an Islamic scholar and populist orator who was instrumental in leading the mass uprising.

The most powerful military leader is now Abdel Hakim Belhaj, the former leader of a hard-line group once believed to be aligned with Al Qaeda. 
It should be noted that these are the guys that the president backed. He knows what is going on in Libya, Egypt, and Palestine.

Jordan hanging by a thread.

GOP win in NY Ninth District: according to DNC, that district has always been problematic for the Dems. Yup, the district hasn't elected a GOP to that seat since 1923. I guess the only thin problematic for the district is getting the dead to vote.

The New York Times: US scrambling to avert Palestinian vote.

The New York Times: siege is widening. Amazing how I post the original story, and everyone follows. 

Israel facing 'diplomatic tsunami' with Arab neighbors.
The attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo has brought into sharp relief Israel's increasing isolation in a still region grappling with the changes of the Arab Spring. [The Arab spring followed the winter of 2009.]

Israel was forced to evacuate its ambassador and most of its diplomatic staff from Cairo this weekend after hundreds of Egyptian protesters tore down a security wall protecting the Nile-side embassy, ransacked its files and burned an Israeli flag. It came less than a week after Turkey, Israel's other major ally in the Muslim world, announced it was expelling the Israeli ambassador and downgrading its relationship to the lowest possible level after a deadly skirmish involving a Turkish aid vessel that was attempting to deliver supplies in defiance of Israel's blockade of the Gaza Strip.
Egyptians ignore President Obama's pleas to protect the embassy and/or stage a rescue mission. Okay. Can you spell "spiraling," as in "spiraling out of control"?

Original Post

THEN: President Obama's speech to the Arab world in 2009
On the other hand, it is also undeniable that the Palestinian people – Muslims and Christians – have suffered in pursuit of a homeland. For more than sixty years they have endured the pain of dislocation. Many wait in refugee camps in the West Bank, Gaza, and neighboring lands for a life of peace and security that they have never been able to lead. They endure the daily humiliations – large and small – that come with occupation. So let there be no doubt: the situation for the Palestinian people is intolerable. America will not turn our backs on the legitimate Palestinian aspiration for dignity, opportunity, and a state of their own.
NOW: Crisis threatens Israel's Mideast ties
Israeli leaders are struggling to contain an escalating diplomatic crisis on multiple fronts amid mounting concern that both Egypt and Turkey, the country’s two most important allies in the Muslim world, are slipping from its grasp.
Following scenes of violence and mayhem on the streets of Cairo, Israel was forced to evacuate its ambassador and almost the entire diplomatic staff from the embassy in the Egyptian capital in the early hours of Saturday. The dramatic move followed the storming of the embassy premises by a group of violent protesters on Friday night.
TOMORROW: Israeli-Arab Crisis Approaching
In September, the U.N. General Assembly will vote on whether to recognize Palestine as an independent and sovereign state with full rights in the United Nations. In many ways, this would appear to be a reasonable and logical step. Whatever the Palestinians once were, they are clearly a nation in the simplest and most important sense — namely, they think of themselves as a nation. Nations are created by historical circumstances, and those circumstances have given rise to a Palestinian nation. Under the principle of the United Nations and the theory of the right to national self-determination, which is the moral foundation of the modern theory of nationalism, a nation has a right to a state, and that state has a place in the family of nations. In this sense, the U.N. vote will be unexceptional.

Israel has two strategies in the face of the potential storm. One is a devastating attack on Gaza followed by rotating forces to the north to deal with Hezbollah and intense suppression of an intifada. Dealing with Gaza fast and hard is the key if the intention is to abort the evolution I laid out. But the problem here is that the three-front scenario I laid out is simply a possibility; there is no certainty here. If Israel initiates conflict in Gaza and fails, it risks making a possibility into a certainty — and Israel has not had many stunning victories for several decades. It could also create a crisis for Egypt’s military rulers, not something the Israelis want.

Renegade's September, 2011, Corporate Presentation -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

This is link to the story that started it all (in the current go-around).

Click here for the Renegade September, 2011, corporate presentation, and note:
  • Slide 6: Renegade has identified 7 gross locations in the North Dakota Bakken; with 50% working interest, they have 3.5 net wells
  • Slide 16: Renegade has 23,673 net acres in the North Dakota Bakken, mostly/all (?) Renville County
Click here for "rumors" regarding Renegade's early plans for the North Dakota Bakken

California Dems Rolling Back Environmental Rules and Regulations

Link here.
Democrats have more control of California government than they've had in nearly a decade, yet in the legislative session that ended early Saturday, they made some very Republican-like moves.

The Legislature the Democrats dominate passed bills that would ease environmental rules on some developers and order bureaucrats to be more business-friendly. And after battling for months to raise taxes, Democrats championed tax cuts for small companies.

Some of the moves were incremental, and business won, as usual, far fewer victories than Democrats' traditional labor allies. But the pro-business gestures abruptly scrambled the political dynamics in the state.
It's a start.  Ronald Reagan is smiling.

Update on Renegade Rumors -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Remember: when the Renegade wells come in and their production is lower than the typical Bakken well, remember that the wells may have been put in for $500,000 rather than $8.5 million for a typical Bakken well.  On the other hand, these wells may be "exploratory" wells and not "production" wells, if there is a difference in this case.

Link here, scroll down to see September 11, 2011, comment.

Adobe Flash Now On iPads

As regular readers know, Apple, Inc., is my favorite company (I do not own shares in Apple).

Apple, Inc., was derided for not allowing Flash on its iPads. Despite intense pressure, Steve Jobs stood his ground: no Adobe Flash. It was klunky, prone to crashing iPads in tests, and, worse of all, an energy hog. By keeping Adobe Flash off iPads (among a few other things), Jobs was able to get the iPad to last ten (real) hours on a single charge.

Jobs suggested that Adobe might want to migrate their software to HTML5 -- "modern" software text for websites.

Well, Adobe did just that. They updated / upgraded their software and Adobe Flash should become available for iPads. Amazing what folks can do when "encouraged." By the way, Adobe sued Apple in court, saying that Apple was unfairly hurting them. I assume the lawsuit will go nowhere, if it hasn't already been dropped.

Minnesota Vikings Open Season With Game-Opening Kick-Off Return Touchdown

Percey Harvin: 103-yard return and touchdown.

Looking Ahead: Number of Wells Coming Off Confidential List to Increase Significantly -- As Much As 50 Percent Increase -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

As a rule of thumb, this past year one could expect 90 wells/month to come off the confidential list --> 2.9 wells/day. I could be wrong, but I don't think the average reached 100.

Starting in January, 2012 (six months from July, 2011, when weather improved and flooding decreased), we will start to see an average of 4.5 wells/day coming off the confidential list.

2.9 to 4.5 represents a 55 percent increase in the number of wells coming off the confidential list each day. That is quite significant, at least in my mind.

Production will increase proportionately, but of course not 55% due to older wells bringing the average down.

When we get to 166 wells/month, the number of wells coming off confidential list could be as high as 5.4 wells/month. It should be noted that not all wells are placed on confidential list.

Leonardite -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Another North Dakota product, discovered here and named after a NoDak pioneer: leonardite.

Leonardite was first described from North Dakota and is found associated with virtually all the lignite deposits in the state. Source: Wiki
According to Leonardite Products, LLC (see link below): Leonardite is found throughout the world, although the mines near Williston, North Dakota are unique due to the fact Leonardite occurs between layers of clay, which prevent other minerals and impurities from leeching into the Leonardite, resulting in a product that is more pure. Numerous tests have been conducted which substantiate the fact that our Leonardite consistently shows higher levels of carbon content, resulting in a higher humic content.
Leonardite is a soft waxy, black or brown, shiny, vitreous mineraloid that is easily soluble in alkaline solutions. It is an oxidation product of lignite, associated with near-surface mining. It is a rich source of humic acid (up to 90%) and is used as a soil conditioner, as a stabilizer for ion-exchange resins in water treatment, in the remediation of polluted environments and as a drilling additive. It was named for Dr. A.G. Leonard, first director of the North Dakota Geological Survey, in recognition of his work on these deposits. Source: Wiki
There is a leonardite mine just east of Williston. Here's the sign. Up the road there were not less then 30 trucks for hauling leonardite but I couldn't take the photo without being on private land, so I chose not to take the photo.
From their website:
Leonardite Products LLC is an independently owned and operated mining and processing company located in Williston, North Dakota, an area boasting one of the richest Leonardite deposits in the world. Leonardite is the only material mined and processed at our plant.

We’re dedicated to providing high quality Leonardite in convenient and economical forms. Most Leonardite Products employees are also owners of the company, and as such take pride in the personal attention and hands-on service only a smaller, employee-owned company like ours can provide for our customers.
The firsts from North Dakota just never quit, do they? I would have to say "we" get everything from the ground that we can. Not much is wasted. Meanwhile, just down the hill from this is a city boat landing and river recreation area with access to the Missouri River, for boating and fishing. Ice fishing in the winter, of course, something one cannot do in Texas, California, Alabama, or Florida.

How much you wanna bet the sign will be bigger ten years from now?

Random Photos of Williston, Little Muddy River -- From East of Williston -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Today was another beautiful day in Williston. I get a kick out of the folks who think North Dakota is arctic tundra. God's country.

Remember, these pictures can be enlarged; one can zoom in on Williston in the distance: click on the photos to open them in another window and zoom in.

Reminder: For Those Interested In Knowing Specifics About Fracture Stimulation for A Specific Well

This is a reminder for those who are interested which company fracture stimulated which well and what components were used: this link will take you to the national registry.

From what I can tell, the registry still lists few North Dakota wells and some operators are not on the drop-down menu, most notably BEXP. At least I didn't see "BEXP" or "Brigham" but I often miss things, going too fast.

But it's a start and over time, I assume it will improve.

The raw data is not provided, but the percent of each component is provided. For example, in a Whiting Mountrail well, 83% was water, and white sand was the proppant, comprising 16% of the total. That accounts for 99% of fracture materiel; the rest of the components on a percentage basis were negligible. For example, table salt (sodium chloride) accounted for 0.07 percent.

If one is interested, one can then go the NDIC well file, and find out the amount of sand used, and then back calculate to find out how much of the other materiel was used.

Photos of Journey Energy Services East of Williston -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

I posted this yesterday evening:
Speaking of which, east of Williston, up on the hill, is "the future home of Journey Energy Services."  They've broken ground and a framed structure is already. I don't know if it's the same Journey Energy Services as at this link, but if so, it's a company that started in Williston, almost exactly one year ago, with one truck. Next time I'm out in that area, I will get a photo; looks like it's expanding. 
I got the photos today, Sunday, and there are crews out there working today -- the Bakken doesn't slow down on the weekend.

This company was started in Williston, North Dakota, one year ago, September, 2010, according to the web site with one truck and six drivers. Something tells me they aren't building this new complex for one truck.

It's the first commercial complex of this nature in this area, east of Williston, on the bluff overlooking the city, the Little Muddy, and the Missouri. Beautiful location, and probably the first of many to come.

1,238 Permits So Far This Year -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

On track for 1,793 new oil and gas permits in North Dakota for calendar year 2011. This projection has been fairly stead for the past six months.

My numbers may vary slightly from official NDIC numbers, but I bet I'm pretty close. 

Vermeer Located West of Williston, Heart of the Bakken -- Story in New York Times

A story in yesterday's edition of The New York Times features the Vermeer Corporation. The article was sent to me in light of the president's proposed ("pass this bill") half-trillion dollar program for public school teachers and renovation of schools across the country.

But I've always wondered about the background of the Vermeer site west of Williston -- another huge complex in the heart of the Bakken -- but always forget to look it up. So now, I can connect the dots.

Like General Electric, Vermeer is increasingly moving its operations to China.
The company he founded bears his name, but for all its American roots, the Vermeeer Corporation put its newest factory — and the wealth that goes with it — not here but in the capital of China.

As President Obama urges Congress to enact a package of tax cuts and new government spending intended to revive growth and create jobs, one crucial corner of the American economy — manufacturing — has largely fallen off Washington’s radar screen. 
I use General Electric as an example because the GE / CEO is the president's economic czar. Again, I cannot make this stuff up. 

Lots of dots here to connect, but the best dot: the Bakken is big enough for Vermeer, and Vermeer is big enough for China.

Does Anyone Ever Do the Math? New Jobs Program: $894,000/Job


September 12, 2011: One day after posting the note below, a talking head on CNBC said the same thing -- Obama is wiling to spend $750,000 for a $50,000 job.

Original Post

Regarding the half-trillion dollar jobs program:
From The New York Times: CEOs say "jobs plan" won't create jobs. Does anyone ever do the math? The article says the $447 billion jobs program "could" create anywhere from 500 thousand to 2 million jobs next year. At 500,000 jobs that works out to $894,000/job; at 2 million jobs, it works out to $238,500. Wouldn't it be more effective to just give 4 million folks $100,000 to spend on retail for the year.
The big question: who provided the analysis that suggested as many as 2 million jobs? The same folks who said the earlier trillion dollar programs would keep unemployment rate from going above 8%?

A big thank you to the reader alerting me to this. I posted the story elsewhere but even I didn't do the math. The "500,000 to 2 million jobs" statistic was buried deep in the article. 

I can't make this stuff up.