Saturday Morning, January 22, 2022

Updates

January 25, 2022: this crazy weekend, Jason Day. For the archives, the big issue this past weekend was the overtime rule regarding the coin flip and one team winning the game without the other team having a chance to handle the ball. 

Original Post

NFL playoffs: brackets; television start times.

Today

• television:
• today, 3:30 p.m. CT: Bengals at Titans, CBS -- BENGALS WIN with a last-second 52-yard field goal by a rookie kicker.
  
• today, 7:15 p.m. CT: 49ers at Aaron Rodgers, Fox -- 49ers win with a last-second 42-yard field goal, 13 - 10.
  
• Sunday, 2:05 p.m. CT: Rams at Tom Brady, NBC -- LA Rams methodically crush the Buccaneers.
  
• Sunday, 5:30 p.m. CT: Bills at Mahomes, CBS -- Mahomes! Everyone was "okay" with OT rules until they weren't. LOL.
  
• comments:
• Bills at Mahomes -- considered the most anticipated game this weekend
• all four games this weekend are must-watch games: three of four won by the underdog; 
  

NFL prediction, update, Sunday, January 30, 2022

• AFC championship game: Bengals at Mahomes; 2:05 p.m. CT, CBS
  
• NFC championship game: 49ers at LA Rams; 5:40 p.m. CT, Fox
  

Superbowl prediction, February 13, 2022:

• Mahomes over the  LA Rams.
  

Playoffs, NFL, takeaways:

• two teams lost when defense couldn't stop opponent from winning in last 24 seconds (LA Chargers / TB Buccaneers), and 13 seconds (Buffalo Bills / Mahomes)
• as the game goes on, defenders are the ones who tire out;
• there are three components of NFL teams:
• offense, defense, and special teams
• maybe there needs to be four components:
• offense, special teams, defense, fourth-quarter defense
• if an NFL team doesn't have all three timeouts left in the last three (two?) minutes of any game, it's poor time management -- this one is on the coaches
  

Politics: watch for dots to connect Trump, US Supreme Court, and Deutsche Bank.

Geopolitics: Pawn to G7 -- Lithuania and Taiwan. Link to Doomberg.

The best professional players from the National Basketball Association became eligible to compete in the Olympic Games in 1992.

In that inaugural year, the USA Men's Basketball National Team featured legendary players Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, and Charles Barkley, and is widely considered to be the greatest athletic team ever assembled in any sport. 

The Dream Team was truly a global cultural phenomenon, destroying all opponents on its way to clinching the gold medal and reestablishing the US as the dominant superpower in basketball.

Asked at a press conference about their hapless opponent prior to their debut game at the Barcelona Olympics, Barkley famously responded “I don’t know much about Angola, but Angola’s in trouble.”

Meat Loaf:

Meat Loaf On The Rocky Horror Show, Part 1

Two CLR DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 21, 2022

The Whiting Tarpon Federal wells are tracked here.  

There are two pads with six wells each.

I consider:

• the 3xxxx wells: daughter wells;
• the 2xxxx wells: parent wells; and,
• there were no 1xxxx wells in this section.

In this section there are six 2xxxxx wells:

• 22554, AB/2,272, off line since 10/19; cum 218K 10/19;
• 29199, AB/3,238, off line since 10/19; cum 196K 10/19;
• 22555, AB/3,259, off line since 10/19; cum 167K 10/19;
• 29200, AB/2,468, off line since 10/19; cum 140K 10/19;
• 22556, AB/2,967, off line since 10/19; cum 199K 10/19;
• 27413, 3,131, was off line from 10/19 to 11/20; and then off line again until 11/21, when it came back on line for 17 days; cum 194K 11/21;
• it should be noted that "AB" wells can be brought back on line; I didn't catch it but I bet #27413 is such an example.

The two DUCs reported as completed, one a middle Bakken; one a Three Forks well:

• 35772, 3,067, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-19-3H, Sand Creek, 33-053-08842, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 59K 11/21; 17K over 8 days extrapolates to 64K over 30 days; fracked 8/23/21 - 9/3/21; 14.5 million gallons of water; 90% water by mass; a huge frack;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2021	23	41636	41724	26368	118537	116416	2121
BAKKEN	10-2021	8	16937	16491	6716	47326	46070	1256

• 35773, 2,239, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-19-2TFHU, Sand Creek, 33-053-08843, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 63K 11/21; 24K over 16 days extrapolates to 44K over 30 days; fracked 8/20/21 - 9/1/21; 11.2 million gallons of water; 90$ water by mass; a moderately large frack;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	38922	38945	17013	106617	106466	151
BAKKEN	10-2021	16	23699	22832	13658	56511	48719	7792

Week 3: January 16, 2022 -- January 22, 2022

Commentary: link here.

Top story of the week:

• Biden is still president.
• Shoot-out at Haystack Butte: CLR vs BR. 
• NFL playoffs: Dallas Cowboys failed to show.
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Everything points to a "soft" takeover of Ukraine by Russia by Valentine's Day.

Top international energy story:

• Global crude oil spare capacity a myth.

Top national non-energy story:

• US equity markets plummet. Full crypto collapse underway.
  
• Gasoline demand plummets.
  
• Teddy Roosevelt statue moved from NYC to North Dakota. Represented systemic racism.
• Covid-19 keeps "seasonal flu" at bay. 
• Intel to build largest chip factory in the world; $20-billion-facility in Ohio.
  

Top national energy story:

• ISO NE burning record amounts of oil to keep the lights on. And, here. And, here.
• WTI hit $88.
• Operators fracking drilled wells as quickly as possible.
• Bumper year of natural gas commitments.
• Federal judge rules against ND federal lease sales.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• NDIC IT might be getting back to normal. And, here.

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.

Operators:

• Evolution Petroleum enters the Williston Basin;
• Samson Oil & Gas Bakken assets up for sale;
• BR wants to unitize Haystack Butte;
• Ranking of Bakken producers;

Operations:

• CLR has completed the eleven-well Gordon Federal pad in Haystack Butte;
• BR active in Haystack Butte.
• Ovintiv well with 55x jump in production.

Wells:

• An old 2008 MRO well with a 54X jump in production;
• The incredibly XTO Johnson Trust wells.
• 17858: how many lives does this well have?
• CLR with a huge Harms Federal well.

Fracking:

Halo:

• Halo effect in neighboring wells -- Slawson Stallion.

DUCs:

• Bakken DUCs about half their historical high.

Pipelines:

Bakken economy:'

Commentary:

• Twenty years from now, they're going to say "we under-estimated the Bakken."
• Is $100-oil just the beginning?"
• MS says "yes" to $100-oil.
• Spare capacity is a myth.

$100 Oil? Morgan Stanley Says "Yes" -- January 21, 2022

$100: Morgan Stanley joins the long list of analysts predicting $100-oil. MS' timeline: 2H22, by the end of 2022. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova.

Morgan Stanley expects oil prices to hit $100 per barrel in the second half of the year, becoming the latest major Wall Street bank to expect triple-digit oil prices by the end of 2022.

The oil market is headed to a “triple deficit” of low inventories, low spare production capacity, and low investment.

The bank now expects oil at $100 in the third and fourth quarters of this year, lifting its previous Q3 and Q4 forecasts from $90 and $87.50 a barrel, respectively.

**********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$85.14	1/21/2022	01/21/2021	01/21/2020	01/21/2019	01/21/2018
Active Rigs	28	12	53	67	58

Three new permits, #38752, - #38754, inclusive:

• Operator: Ovintiv
• Field: Westberg (McKenzie)
• Comments:
• Ovintiv has permits for three Clear Creek Federal permits, to be sited in SESW 36-152-97;
• they will be sited between 530 FSL and 490 FSL and 1471 FWL;

Eighteen permits renewed:

• Enerplus (7): the "whale" pad -- an Orca permit; a Baleen permit; a Sei permit; an Omura permit; a Blue permit; a Brydes permit, and a Narwhal permit, all in Dunn County;
• Hess (6): six BB-Federal permits in McKenzie County;
• Whiting (3): three Brehm permits in Mountrail County
• Slawson (2): two Armada Federal permits in Mountrail County (or as the NDIC types it, the "Mountrial" County;

Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 35772, 3,067, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-19-3H, Sand Creek, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 59k 11/21; see this post;
  
• 35773, 2,239, Whiting, Tarpon Federal 44-19-2TFHU, Sand Creek, first production, 10/21; t--; cum 63K 11/21; see this post;
• 37407, 1,437, CLR, Gale 14-32HSL, Cedar Coulee, minimal production,
  

Road To Mexico; Learning Spanish With Sophia -- January 21, 2022

Mexico refinery almost $4 billion over budget. 

This is a huge story.

PEMEX is heavy in debt; worst among all oil companies in the entire world.

Now this.

This is Mexico's mega-refinery: the Dos Bocas project.

• 340,000 barrel / day
• purpose: halt crude oil exports starting in 2023
• now, the project may fail to produce a single gallon of gasoline in 2022;
• may produce only limited amounts of fuel for several years after that;

Costs:

• original estimate: $9.0 billion
• new estimate: $13.0 billion
  

*******************************
Sophia And Spanish

Sophia and I are taking Spanish lessons on Duolingo together. 

 For a break, we are trying something different. One of Sophia's favorite books is Sisters.

We got identical "graphic novels" at Barnes and Noble, one in English, one in Spanish. Sophia "reads" the one in Spanish and I read the one in English. This is our first time through. It will take many iterations. 

Most interesting: the translations are matched up exactly in each book, but so many idioms. It will be a challenge, but it's great fun learning these idioms. Wish us luck. Here we go.

Don't laugh. Our pronunciation is horrible, but this is our first time going through the books. The good news: my wife, Sophia's grandmother's native language is Spanish -- well, actually, her first language was Japanese but she left Japan when she was about two years old. Her first home in America was in Texas and her next language was Spanish until she started school when she was seven years old. She knew no English when she started school. She spoke Japanese with her mom and Spanish with her dad. 

So, our pronunciation is horrible but Grammy will work with us and help Sophia. I'm a lost cause. LOL.