Tuesday, August 21, 2018

"So, What Don't You Want?" -- August 21, 2018

See this link for background.

A recurrent theme on the blog -- remember, I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken -- is that operators rushing into the Permian may have bitten off more than they can chew; and, a corollary, the Bakken is looking pretty good.

Keeping that in mind, this is an interesting analysis from Rystad via oilprice: 
The U.S. shale industry is gearing up to spend more this year, despite assurances to maintain capital discipline.
In the second quarter, shale companies signaled their intention to lift capex. Part of the reason is that costs are on the rise, so some drillers have to spend more to produce the same amount of oil and gas. That was an unexpected development, and one that shareholders are not happy about.
A survey of 33 shale companies by Rystad Energy found that while the group revised up spending by about 8 percent, they only increased their expected production levels for this year by 1.4 percent. “This disconnect might suggest that the shale industry requires more capital than before to achieve healthy production growth,” Rystad said in a new report.

Eight New Permits; Fourteen Permits Renewed -- August 21, 2018

API weekly crude oil inventories: down 5.170 million gallons.

Active rigs:

$66.09→8/21/201808/21/201708/21/201608/21/201508/21/2014
Active Rigs61523276193

Eight new permits:
  • Operators: Hunt (3); XTO (3), Cobra Oil & Gas (2)
  • Fields: Werner (Dunn); Hofflund (Williams); North Elkhorn Ranch (Billings)
  • Comments: Cobra is an "old" operator in North Dakota but limited to the North Elkhorn Ranch field; Hunt has permits for a 3-well Halliday pad in SWSE 19-146-92; XTO has permits for a 3-well Lonnie Federal pad in NWNe 3-154-95.
Fourteen permits renewed:
  • BR (7): five Lincoln Hill permits in Dunn County; one Renegade permit and one Chuckwagon permit, both in McKenzie County
  • Slawson (4): four mole permits in Mountrail County
  • Whiting (2): one Sikes State permit in Mountrail County; one Iver & Minnie permit in Stark County
  • Bruin E&P Operating: one Christine Joe permit in Williams County
Five producing wells completed:
  • 33266, n/d, Whiting, Wold 44-7-8H, Banks, 4 sections, t--; cum --
  • 33252, 750, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-7-1TFH, Banks, t7/18; cum --
  • 34475, 389, Lime Rock, Laura Sadowsky 4-1-36H-142-96, Manning, t7/18; cum 2K in 6 days;
  • 33932, 208, BR, Three Rivers 1B MBH, Charlson, t7/18; cum --
  • 33931, n/d, Three Sons 1A TFH-ULW, Charlson, 2 sections, t7/18; cum --
One re-entry permit:
  • 31525, loc, Resonance Exploration, Resonance R. E. Ballantyne Development, Westhope,

Drum Roll, Please -- August 21, 2018

As I've said many times, the Dow is irrelevant but we all follow it.

For investors, of the three major indices, the S&P 500 is the most important.

Today, drum roll, please --- the S&P hits an all-time high.

We never saw that under the previous administration and you can argue with me all you want, but we would not have seen this with Hillary or Marco Rubio.
 
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Back to Andrew "The US Never Was Great" Cuomo

Based on the public reaction to his comments, it sounds like folks could not understand why Andrew Cuomo would say the "US never was great." Certainly, I could not understand it.

A reader found the answer and here it is.

New York has consistently been rated the least free state of the 57 states in the United States. Link here (this site suggests there are only 50 states despite what President Obama said).

The scathing analysis begins:
New York has been the least free state in the country for a long time. Economic freedom is the most significant weakness, but the state has not kept up with the rest of the country on personal freedom either.
The only fiscal policy area where New York is not below average is the ratio of government to private employment, where the state has actually improved significantly since the early 2000s. The government GDP ratio has scarcely fallen over that same time period, suggesting that New York pairs relatively low government employment with high salaries and benefits for public employees. New York’s local tax burden is twice that of the average state: 8.5 percent of income in FY 2015. This is a dramatic rise from the early 2000s, when it was 7 percent. However, New Yorkers have ample choice in local government: 2.9 competing jurisdictions per 100 square miles. The state tax burden, at a projected 6.8 percent of income in FY 2017, is also higher than the national average. Debt is the highest in the country at 31.2 percent of income, and liquid assets are less than half that, at 14.2 percent of income.
New York is also the worst state on regulatory policy, although here it is at least within striking distance of number 49. Land-use freedom is very low, primarily because of the economically devastating rent control law in New York City. Local zoning is actually fairly moderate compared with surrounding states not named “Pennsylvania.” Renewable portfolio standards are high. The state enacted a minimum wage in 2013–14 and also has a short-term disability insurance mandate. Cable and telecommunications are unreformed. Occupational freedom is a bit subpar, but nurse practitioners did gain some independence in 2013–14. Insurance freedom is a mixed bag (the state has stayed out of the Interstate Insurance Product Regulation Compact), but property and casualty insurers gained some freedom to set rates in 2013–14. The civil liability system looks poor, but we may underrate it slightly because of the state’s large legal sector.
With that analysis, no wonder Cuomo feels American has never been great. New York has been dead last for the past sixteen years in personal freedoms. Wow. The past sixteen years.

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Geico Rock Award Nominee For 2018

Francisco Toro of The Washington Post: the collapse of Venezuela doesn't "prove" anything about socialism. Francisco Toro is Chief Content Officer of the Group of 50 and a contributing columnist to Post Opinions.

Link here. Google it if you hit a paywall; easily accessed. From the article:
Since the turn of the century, every big country in South America except Colombia has elected a socialist president at some point. Socialists have taken power in South America’s largest economy (Brazil), in its poorest (Bolivia) and in its most capitalist (Chile). Socialists have led South America’s most stable country (Uruguay) as well as its most unstable (Ecuador). Argentina and Peru elected leftists who, for various reasons, didn’t refer to themselves as socialists — but certainly governed as such.
Mysteriously, the supposedly automatic link between socialism and the zombie apocalypse skipped all of them. Not content with merely not-collapsing, a number of these countries have thrived.
The writer clearly uses the word "thrived" very, very loosely. Quick, name one country of consequence that has thrived after turning to socialism to solve their problems. The writer leads off with Peru -- I rest my case.

Week 33: August 12, 2018 -- August 18, 2018

This posting was delayed a few days and will include posts later than August 18, 2018, but ... whatever.

Operations
This week was marked by announcement of some incredible wells (which seems to be the norm these days); for example:
Active rigs trending down in the Bakken
Highlights of CLR's 2Q18 earnings call

DUCs
Continue to increase in the Bakken -- regardless of what others say
Ten producing DUCs reported as completed

Flaring
North Dakota purposely cuts oil production to slow down flaring

Economy
Breakeven in the Bakken: $35 -- Rystad; $17 in some areas -- NDIC  

Commentary
Bakken 2.5 -- year-end update, 2017
Has US shale peaked?

Miscellaneous:
Vern Whitten aerial photos of western North Dakota -- top post of the week
Writer suggests Oasis was a recent seller of acreage to Whiting

The Next Big Thing: Personal Television Network

Over at "The Next Big Thing," I've added "personal television networks." My hunch is that millennials have already done this but cable providers and satellite providers need to make it as easy as Apple iTunes and Apple television.

From the extensive library of all networks available, an individual would simply go down the list checking off which network he/she wants to watch at any given hour/day throughout the week.

So, for example, "Bruce's Television Network (BTN), all times Central Time:
  • 05:00 - 6:00: BBC World News (in London, it would be about noon)
  • 06:00 - 07:00: CNBC
  • 07:00 - 08:00: business news from a regional network based in Chicago
  • 08:00 - 09:00: business podcasts from the internet
  • 09:00 - 10:00: BBC World News (in London, it would be about noon), in case I sleep in
  • 10:00 - 11:00: TBD
  • 12:00 - 1:00: TBD
  • 1:00 - 3:00: TCM classic movies
  • 3:00 - 4:00: CNBC
  • 4:00 - 5:00: business news from a regional network based in Los Angeles
  • 5:00 - 9:00: "Big Bang Theory"; "Bob's Burgers"; ESPN; poker; Lawrence Welk; Miami Vice; Columbo; mix
  • 9:00 - 11:00: TCM classic movies
And again, the millennials have probably figured out how to do this but BTN would simply be another channel available for surfing, and once up and running, anyone could surf to that network.