Enquiring Minds Want To Know -- January 30, 2016

Updates

January 31, 2016: update on new energy plant costs in the US:

• Off-shore wind: $7.5 million /MW (intermittent; requires fossil fuel back-up)
• Solar: $3 million / MW (intermittent; requires fossil fuel back-up)
• On-Shore Wind: $2.5 million / MW (intermittent; requires fossil fuel back-up)
• Natural gas: $865,000 / MW

January 31, 2016: Snowstorm Jonas, which was predicted to be one of the biggest snowstorms ever in the US, pretty much lived up to the hype. What I find interesting is how the story -- not necessarily the storm -- just ended. This was the storm that was supposed to wreak as much havoc on New Jersey -- you know, the rising sea levels, the ocean surge, the deluge -- as Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Jonas hit on Friday, and by Sunday night, maybe even by Sunday afternoon, the story was over. Except for an occasional story about Brooklyn folks reporting that their streets have not yet been plowed, there really wasn't much reported. Yes, it's a slow news day.

January 31, 2016: this link was sent to me sometime ago, but I did not get to it until today -- it appears another great theory for energy production is not ready for prime time. This time it is energy provided by the oceans' tidal waves. Northern Ireland is calling it quits. 

A tidal energy turbine installed in Strangford Lough, County Down, is to be removed.

The SeaGen turbine was lowered into place in 2008 and generates electricity from from tidal currents.

Two horizontal axis turbines are anchored to the seabed and are driven by the powerful currents resulting from the tide moving in and out.

Its owners Atlantis Resources said it will be decommissioned later this year. The company said it had been "an essential research and design platform".

January 30, 2016: from a reader -- Just had to share this with you ...

• state-of-the-art combined cycle gas plant to be built in Burrville, R.I.
• 900 MW plant costing $700 million
• Deepwater Wind offshore wind turbines also being built off Block Island, R.I.
• 30 MW capacity (on windy days, I suppose) costing $225 million
• Activists are livid over the gas plant

I've confirmed the data points -- later I will supply the links. If I remember. A huge thanks for the reader who sent me this data. The reason this is so important, it confirms the current cost for a new natural gas plant (about $750K/MW) vs off-shore wind (about $7.5 million, per MW). 

And, no, wind energy is not free once the wind turbines are on-line. Wind turbines need to be backed up by continuous energy sources supplies by fossil fuels. Say, natural gas. 

Again, unfortunately, states are not eligible for the Geico Rock Award.

Cost / MW:

• Natural gas plant: $800,000 MW
• Offshore wind: a whopping $7.5 million / MW

I have no dog in this fight; I don't live in -- nor do I have plans to ever live in -- Rhode Island. The folks who live in Rhode Island are fairly well off, with a median annual income slightly less than North Dakota. Paying $7.5 million/MW shouldn't be an issue for them. LOL.

Median annual income by state:

• Rhode Island: $59,000
• North Dakota: $61,000
• Mississippi: $36,000

Wiki also had a list as of 2014.

Activists must have money to burn. Speaking of which, I wonder if it would be cheaper to burn US one-dollar bills to heat a home rather than paying $7.5 million/MW, off-shore wind? Just curious.
 

Original Post
 

According to the EIA, what is the residential rate for electricity, kilowatt-hour, in each of the 57 states?

Link here. North Dakota moves up a notch to #2 in the nation, ahead of the hydroelectric states of Washington and Idaho. It's possible that southwestern North Dakota leads the nation, even beating out Louisiana, at #1.

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Pretty Cool

On a fairly generic google search, "the million dollar way blog" pops up as the #2 hit out of 162,000 hits.

On another note, among Bakken blogs this site is still #2.  Google "Bakken blog."

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Putting Things Into Perspective

Do you remember the 29 deaths-- or whatever the number was -- blamed on winter storm Jonas, affecting 85 million Americans from Kentucky to New York up to New England? Hold that thought: 29 deaths.

This just in from Iran:

30 Jan 2016 – The vice president of the Red Crescent society said that of the 9,515 injured in the country during the last week, 7,450 of the injuries were related to snow. This included 283 road accidents due to snow and blizzard.

Meanwhile, Mexico has declared a state of emergency in 23 states due to severe cold (same link). More on Mexico here, February 3, 2016:

The situation is particularly worrying in the north, where the thermometer reached the -17 ° C mark. In Mexico City it snowed in January, a phenomenon not seen in the capital since 1967.

31 Jan 2016 – While the storm Jonah was unleashed on the United States, in Mexico temperatures dropped to record lows.

The snow and cold forced the government to declare a state of emergency is declared in 24 of the 32 states in the country.

The National Meteorological System has warned that the worst of winter may be yet to come and that temperatures will fall in the north, northeast, east and center of Mexico.

Week 4: January 24, 2016 -- January 30, 2016

The big story this past week that turned into a non-story surrounded rumors that Russia and Saudi Arabia -- "lifelong" enemies -- were discussing crude oil quotas in an attempt to raise the price of oil. By the end of the week, nothing more was heard.

The other big story, of course, which was reported almost nowhere was the fact that Kuwait reported snow for the first time "ever."

Temperatures in Kuwait soar up to 50C in the summer months and even in winter 20C is the norm. However, on Thursday the temperature was as low as 3C.

There is no record of snow having fallen in Kuwait before, although the emirate has experienced hail and frost in the past when temperatures have fallen in the winter.

A Kuwaiti told MEE that Thursday's snow was a first for the country.

"I asked my grandfather, he said there has never been snow before," they said, preferring to remain anonymous. "Everyone is surprised."

The Kuwaiti who preferred to stay anonymous no doubt heard that some warmists advocate beheading those who do not believe in global warming. Or at least "arresting them." By the way, this past week, the entire world was under a "snow watch."

Perhaps the "best" story this past month was learning that it is hard to measure snowfall in a blizzard -- at least in Washington, DC.  Or perhaps it was this one: one dead duck in a Bakken waste pit and the EPA is on the operator like flies on poop, but lead-contaminated water in Flint, Michigan -- and they know about it for months.

Another non-Bakken story: when one absolutely, positively needs reliable electricity, one goes with fossil fuel.

Operations
North Dakota ends week with new post-boom low in number of active rigs: 45
CLR proposes 22 wells on a new 2560-acre unit in Elm Creek oil field
Highlights of the February, 2016, NDIC, hearing dockets agenda
Bentek predicts minimal decline in North Dakota crude oil production for December, month-over-month
Halcon reports a huge Bakken well 
Note number of DUCs in first 100 North Dakota oil permits in 2015
CLR CAPEX for 2016
Oasis CAPEX for 2016

Pipelines
Phillips 66 may consider bigger stake in Bakken pipeline

Refinery
MDU refinery update 
Diesel fuel is really, really inexpensive 

Bakken economy
Legacy fund update: $3.4 billion (with a "B") through December, 2015

Miscellaneous
US crude oil stocks at highest inventory level for month of December since the Great Depression
With drop in gasoline prices, vehicle fuel economy has dropped for nine consecutive months, year-over-year
DOT estimates Americans driving record amount of miles
Public transportation ridership dropping in southern California
Public transportation (light rail, bus) ridership dropping in Arizona 
Minnesota regulators approve $30 million solar project for emergency power
Electricity down to 3.5 cents/kw-hour
Oasis to issue significantly more shares
Third of three US crude oil shipments reached European destinations
Brent crude oil futures to rollover/expire well in advance of WTI crude oil futures
Sanctions lifted: Iranian crude oil exports likely to be a drop in the bucket

Phillips 66 May Consider Bigger Stake In Bakken Pipeline -- Reuters -- January 30, 2016

The Dickinson Press is reporting:

Phillips 66 may consider increasing its 25 percent stake in Energy Transfer Partners' pipeline project to move North Dakota Bakken oil to Illinois and Texas, but likes its current commitment as is, President Tim Taylor told analysts on Friday.

This was my last entry regarding this pipeline:

January 20, 2016: North Dakota approves Dakota Access Pipeline; only Iowa is yet to approve; company expects Iowa to approve "next month." I'll believe it when I see it.

And that link led to this:

Regulators in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Illinois have already approved permits. Iowa still remains, though the company says it expects that approval to come next month.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers also must approve the pipeline because it would cross beneath the Missouri River twice in North Dakota, near Williston and Mandan.

So Nebraska Iowa must still approve the pipeline as well as President Obama. I'm not holding my breath when the promoters say they hope to have this pipeline completed by the end of 2016.

A "snapshot" of this pipeline can be found here. 

Hours After Hitting Another Post-Boom Low, Active Rigs Drop Again -- To 45 -- January 29, 2016

Transcript, CVX 4Q15 earnings: SeekingAlpha. 

Active rigs:

	1/29/2016	01/29/2015	01/29/2014	01/29/2013	01/29/2012
Active Rigs	45	146	190	187	204

One can track the rig count over time at this post. 

RBN Energy: The “Great Divide” Between Crude and Natural Gas Is Shuttered By Low Prices.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) CME NYMEX crude futures settled up 92 cents/Bbl yesterday (January 28, 2016) at $33.22/Bbl and NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures settled up slightly at $2.182/MMBtu.

The crude-to-gas ratio - meaning the crude price in $/Bbl divided by the gas price in $/MMBtu - was 15.22 X.

For most of this year so far the ratio has been less than 15X On January 20, 2016 it dipped to 12.5 X – its lowest point since March 2009. Over the 5 years between 2010 and 2014 the ratio averaged 27X - reaching a high of 54X in April 2012.

That lofty five year run for the crude-to-gas ratio was arguably responsible for much of the crude and natural gas liquids production boom since 2011 and a “Golden Age” of natural gas processing. Today we begin a two-part series discussing the ratio and the market implications if it stays low. -- first in a two-part series. Archived.

Fast and furious becomes slow and costly. OPEC (i.e., Saudi Arabia) says no meeting is scheduled. If at all interested, here's a long article over at Reuters/Rigzone.

Russia's oil industry has argued for years that it cannot cut output to support falling global prices for purely technical reasons; in reality it can - as long as it has the political will.

The days that oligarchs decided production levels according to their own private interests are long gone. Today the state directly controls roughly half of output, with most of the rest in the hands of business figures who are loyal to President Vladimir Putin, or at least will not oppose his wishes.

Moscow has long ruled out an output cut coordinated with other producers, even during the collapse in crude prices since the middle of 2014. However, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Thursday Saudi Arabia had proposed that all exporters should reduce their production by up to 5 percent, adding that Russia was ready to discuss the idea.

Russia's oil industry has a chequered record on carrying out requests to cut production.

On previous occasions when the Kremlin said it would consider cooperating with OPEC, exports kept flowing or even increased. In some cases oil companies shifted their cargoes from the pipeline system to the railways or tankers where there was less state oversight.

The only time Russia implemented a brief cut was in early 2002 when Moscow reacted to Brent crude prices that were below $20 per barrel - about $15/bbl below Thursday's level.

Since then the picture has changed. The Kremlin has consolidated its control over of Russian oil production since the demise of the giant Yukos energy company following the arrest of its head, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, in 2003.

An industry source noted this consolidation and the increased power of Putin, who oversees all major energy deals in Russia, saying that oil companies are now much more likely to fall into line with a production cut if needed.

Ping-pong. This is nice. The other day I mentioned/linked The Coyote Blog with regard to public transportation -- this was the link. Today, I see The Coyote Blog provided an update:  Phoenix Light Rail (Continued) Fail. At the linked blog, public transportation ridership has dropped for the past three years, and is now (2015) lower than what it was in 2013). It appears that light rail cannibalized bus services and over time both light rail and bus have failed. I bet the dots connect: light rail and bus routes do not connect physically where most needed.

By the way, a lot of Willistonite snowbirds fly into Phoenix every October. Many have made Phoenix their new home, or their second home. 

Politics -- January 29, 2016

Updates

Later, 11:34 a.m. Central Time: this is quite amazing. Shortly after writing the post below, I came across articles in two liberal papers who unanimously agree that Donald Trump "won" the debate last night -- for the same reason I suggested below. The stories: one in The Guarian and one on the front page of The Los Angeles Times. Pretty funny.


Yesterday "everybody" was opining that Trump made a huge mistake; now these same sources are all saying his move was brilliant. LOL.

The [London] Guardian: Trump just proved: it's possible to win a debate without showing up.
The clear winner of the final Republican debate, just four days before the first votes are cast in Iowa, was the Macavity candidate.

Just like the mystery cat, Donald Trump was nowhere near the scene of the crime at the Fox News debate. You could find him on rival news channels, but the damage was already done to poor Ted Cruz: the only candidate who could come close to beating him in Iowa.

Cruz, standing exposed in the middle of the stage, was subject to a barrage of fire from the moderators and his rival candidates. And Trump didn’t have to do any of the dirty work himself.

The Los Angeles Times, the very top story, the very top at the on-line edition -- above the Flint, MI, story; above the ISIS story; above the Russian airliner story; above everything --  Even in boycott, Donald Trump succeeds in winning Republican debate.

The unorthodox political strategy that has kept Donald Trump at the top of the Republican presidential field may have triumphed again with his much-disputed decision not to attend Thursday's televised debate in Iowa.

He was not there to be pierced by video clips employed to great effect against other candidates by the Fox News moderators. He was not there to attract insults from the rest of the pack, and in his absence few were offered. He was not there to step into any sort of quicksand that might have threatened his national lead and his strength in Iowa, where the first votes will be cast in caucuses Monday night.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, vying for prominence below Trump, got the added stage time each has desired as they battle for the territory below the front-runner. But both appeared churlish at times and may have suffered from an extended fight over immigration, which included video clips in which each man contradicted his more recent statements which he then had to explain from the stage.

Trump's departure left Cruz as the preeminent candidate on stage, and the result was not what Cruz might have hoped. Fox anchor Megyn Kelly asked Cruz .... And then he was challenged by moderator Chris Wallace on whether his votes on military issues matched his incendiary rhetoric about fighting ISIS.

He replied by asserting -- incorrectly -- that the United States had carpet-bombed Iraq in the first Gulf War, a tactic he has said he would use against ISIS even though it is considered a war crime. (Although the Persian Gulf war bombing was incessant, it was targeted at military sites and sought to avoid civilian casualties.)

Rubio then jumped on Cruz, saying that the Texan hadn't taken action as a senator to rebuild the military.

"The only budget that Ted has ever voted for is a budget that Rand Paul sponsored that brags about cutting defense spending," Rubio said, knocking Cruz and the Kentucky senator standing nearby.

Pretty funny.

Original Post

 

It's interesting how things turn out.

I'm sure most folks have heard that Donald Trump skipped the last debate in Iowa before the voting begins Monday.

This is what happened: the two leading men at the bottom of the pack -- Jeb Bush and Chris Christie -- with each of them polling about 1% were able to steal votes/support from the others that showed up at the debate, namely, Cruz and Rubio. Since Cruz is Trump's only "serious" challenger in Iowa, and because Rubio is Trump's only "serious" challenger nationally, it worked out quite well for The Donald. He may do well to skip a few future debates.

With short notice, Trump filled his venue -- filled his venue? That's what was reported. My hunch is he "overfilled" his venue and had to turn back some wanting to get in.

Be that as it may, if one does not know who Trump is or who his rivals are by now, I doubt any more debates will make much difference. Again, the Dems did it right. Three debates during Sunday Night Football. The GOP has scheduled x+1 too many debates, where "x" stands for number of debates as of last night.