Here We Go Again -- If We Didn't Have CLR, Would We Even Be Talking About The Bakken? January 29, 2022

Isn't it a hoot that a US federal judge vacated the largest -- repeat, the largest ever -- GoM federal lease? Whoo-hoo! Makes all this on-shore stuff that much more exciting. LOL.

As someone noted, that US federal judge assumes crude oil is "just there," like homogenized milk in your local grocery story. 

And here we go, another CLR well. Full production here.

The well:

• 33027, 2,880, CLR, Hereford Federal 12-17H2, Elm Tree, t9/19; cum 317K 11/21;

So, a well less than three years old and now this, look at this jump in production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	11-2021	25	14164	14198	12783	19915	18711	880
BAKKEN	10-2021	28	2689	2702	4442	20875	20405	123
BAKKEN	9-2021	30	3434	3472	4845	25083	24399	296
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	4113	4085	6200	27886	27380	101
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	4477	4645	7089	28944	27633	912
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	4870	4770	7295	31201	30798	11
BAKKEN	5-2021	31	5620	5535	7730	27714	26830	480
BAKKEN	4-2021	30	6156	6313	8291	24429	22265	1772

But just a few months earlier:

BAKKEN	3-2021	31	8992	8952	9813	26904	26458	40
BAKKEN	2-2021	28	9394	9452	8182	19288	18900	24
BAKKEN	1-2021	31	7965	8166	7264	15271	14872	90
BAKKEN	12-2020	21	586	350	18	7	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2020	30	6582	6679	8847	49273	48889	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	31	8103	8077	9733	53562	53067	89
BAKKEN	9-2020	30	9370	9255	11400	46337	45925	20
BAKKEN	8-2020	31	13501	13582	14811	46955	46554	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	15412	15545	15101	31910	30257	1265

Initial production:

BAKKEN	4-2020	27	9225	9178	9891	37141	37141	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	9620	9517	11440	28710	26944	1766
BAKKEN	2-2020	29	11524	11608	15409	33570	31074	2496
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	18695	18588	18114	41831	37948	3883
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	27709	27909	26466	45325	38994	6331
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	35169	35237	27595	56334	38537	17797
BAKKEN	10-2019	30	43208	43102	34035	69295	43162	26133
BAKKEN	9-2019	19	34882	34311	27227	56967	32237	24730

The Bakken. Where Do We Start? So Many Incredible Wells. Let's Start Here -- A Not Atypical Slawson Well -- January 29, 2022

The well:

• 23536, 2,315, Slawson, Gabriel 2-36-25H, North Tobacco Garden, t12/12; cum 347K 11/21;
  

Full production here. 

A mediocre well when it was drilled a decade ago. A decade ago, using old completion strategies, with the dreaded Bakken decline:

BAKKEN	10-2013	31	5329	5184	3562	6439	6284	0
BAKKEN	9-2013	19	4290	3977	2088	6559	6464	0
BAKKEN	8-2013	20	3794	4220	1280	5524	5424	0
BAKKEN	7-2013	29	5559	5387	2043	2428	2138	0
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	7636	8225	2940	10299	9999	0
BAKKEN	5-2013	19	5733	5092	1654	190	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2013	29	7974	8018	2192	290	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2013	31	10428	11044	3490	310	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2013	28	13552	12976	4521	280	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2013	31	21905	22504	6667	310	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2012	9	9076	7598	7433	90	0	0

... and then it plateaued to around the 1500 - 2000 bbls/month production level ---

Then, in early 2019:

BAKKEN	12-2019	31	3338	3392	2131	7992	7487	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	3635	3641	2269	8699	8164	0
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	4207	4352	2606	9562	8961	0
BAKKEN	9-2019	30	4166	4083	2557	9500	8905	0
BAKKEN	8-2019	31	4580	4524	2847	10724	10077	0
BAKKEN	7-2019	31	5976	6354	3864	14019	13221	0
BAKKEN	6-2019	30	7543	7543	4724	12051	2600	8492
BAKKEN	5-2019	30	8706	8707	5839	13368	5345	6944
BAKKEN	4-2019	30	10079	10047	6794	18325	15365	1734

So, ten years old, and lots of room to run. It's just beginning.

Someday they're going to say, "we under-estimated the Bakken."

Apple, Walmart, Ulta, And OPEC -- Good Morning -- Nothing About The Bakken -- January 29, 2022

One question: is there any future for a cellphone company who now takes the lead in China? Or is this the beginning of an end for its well-known competitor?

EOG and Eagle Ford: link here. Be sure to read through the thread to the possible / likely explanation (which I suspect is wrong).

Chevron: miss. Folks are missing the story. Hopefully, I will find time to get back to this one; there's an interesting side to this story.

Just how "rich" is America: link here. 

• revenues of the 13 OPEC members
• export all their crude oil production
• at $100 / bbl
• total revenue would almost equal combined revenue of TWO American companies:
• Walmart; and, drum roll ...
• Apple 

Ulta Beauty: best ever article ever in The Wall Street Journal. Link here. On mentors and mentorship for CEOs. 

Stocks to watch next week: link here. Just a few mentioned:

• ABBV (think JNJ); AMD (think XLNX); GOOG; SBUX (think struggling; $10-coffee; and, unionization); XOM (think CVX: best of breed).

****************************
Apple

Apple: this analyst gets it.  "Scary demand."

Apple: perhaps this weekend, if I find the time, I will post the top ten things that blew me away in Apple's 1Q22 earnings / conference call. For now, until I find something else, #1, link here, from The Wall Street Journal:

Apple's iPhone 13:

Signs of Apple’s improved China performance had been emerging since the iPhone 12 with 5G cellular connectivity made its debut in late 2020. They picked up pace when the iPhone 13 lineup was introduced in September. During the iPhone 13’s debut in China, it rose to first place in the market that initial week, according to Counterpoint Research.

Strong sales in the final three months of 2021 continued, allowing the company to capture the top position in the country, with 23% of the market compared with 16% a year earlier.

Meanwhile, Huawei, once Apple’s biggest rival in China for the premium smartphone market, fell to 7% of the market from 23%. U.S. sanctions have curbed Huawei’s ability to buy chips and use American software, such as Alphabet Inc.’s Android operating system, reducing its supply of phones and prompting users to ditch the brand.

Best Three Sites To Follow The "Cyclone Bomb," Winter Storm Kenan — January 28, 2022

The winds: one can pick any point on the globe, to get wind speed, direction and exact GPS coordinates. 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-71.09,30.29,2600/loc=-70.727,42.505.

ISO NE, of course: https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/web/charts.

• at the linked site, find “fuel mix”;
• click on “renewables”
• note wind component
• % renewable  times % wind = % wind component

Flight radar here: https://www.flightradar24.com/36.22,-75.43/6. At the time I am updating this, there is one plane "stranded" at Logan Airport (Boston).

************************
UPDATE: ISO NE

Fuel mix:

• electricity demand: not very much, about 17,000 MW
• natural gas: from personal experience, this looks like a record low contribution, at less than 40%; running out of NG again, today?
• oil: for #2 among sources; providing 22% supply; tied with nuclear which is maxed out (nuclear is maxed out).
• hydro: at only 5% suggests incredibly expensive or other contract limitations
• renewables: holding up surprisingly well; blizzard not affecting wind?
• coal: insignificant; trending toward zero; did they use coal stockpiles; roads closed; no more coal deliveries? 

A reader who follows this much more closely than I do might be able to explain coal at zero percent when price of electricity is now at record highs; in the 8th decile. For newbies, based on the "screwiness" of the "deciles, we will "never" see prices in the 9th or 10th decile. In other words, electricity is now in the max decile in New England -- it can still go much higher, but it won't exceed the 8th decile .

Week 4: January 23, 2022 -- January 29, 2022

Top story of the week:

• Joe Biden is still president. The Biden boom.

Top international non-energy story of the week:

• Russia-Ukraine spat escalates; Putin separates US from Germany; crack in NATO;
• Trudeau goes into hiding;

Top international energy story of the week:

• EU / UK energy crisis worsens
• Across the board, countries are reneging on COP26 agreements; Japan; Denmark, Sweden, UK:
• WT
  

Top national non-energy story of the week:

• New England cyclone-bomb; Winter Storm Kenan, and, here; NE ISO on the brink of disaster.
• Earnings: AAPL blows away estimates; PSX; CVX surprises "everyone"; misses estimates; and, here;
• The Fed spooks the market;
• China okays AMD - XLNX merger;
  

Top national energy story of the week:

• US federal judge vacates federal government's largest GoM lease; and, here;
  
• Maverick acquires some of COP's Permian Basin assets;
• Natural gas spikes; one-day spike; largest jump ever in one day;
• Gasoline demand in free fall; no one talking about it.
• Geoff Simon's quick connects.
  

Top North Dakota non-energy story of the week:

• Longest-serving attorney general dies suddenly and unexpectedly; not Covid-related; huge friend of oil sector; guided the players through the Bakken revolution;
• Williston: to be site of world's largest data center;
  

Top North Dakota energy story of the week:

• Project Tundra, update;
• Legacy Fund deposits continue to grow;

Operators:

• Hess: 2022 CAPEX; update for 2022;
• Hess continues to report great wells;
• CLR building a position in the Powder River Basin; and, here;
• Hess reports four nice BB-State wells in Blue Buttes;
  

Operations:

• MRO with another monster well;
• Seven completed MRO monster DUCs;
• Carbon capture and storage permits;
• Monster wells reported by MRO;
• CLR has completed its eleven-well Gordon Federal pad; winter fur pad;
• Enerplus very active: in the FB Leviathan; winter fur pad;

Wells:

• The incredible CLR Mountain Gap wells updated;
  

Fracking:

Halo effect:

• An old well with 54x jump in production;

Pipelines:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

• How the Bakken shale revolution saved Europe;
• Everyone talks about $100-oil;