Best Three Sites To Follow The "Cyclone Bomb," Winter Storm Kenan — January 28, 2022

The winds: one can pick any point on the globe, to get wind speed, direction and exact GPS coordinates. 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-71.09,30.29,2600/loc=-70.727,42.505.

ISO NE, of course: https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/web/charts.

• at the linked site, find “fuel mix”;
• click on “renewables”
• note wind component
• % renewable  times % wind = % wind component

Flight radar here: https://www.flightradar24.com/36.22,-75.43/6. At the time I am updating this, there is one plane "stranded" at Logan Airport (Boston).

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UPDATE: ISO NE

Fuel mix:

• electricity demand: not very much, about 17,000 MW
• natural gas: from personal experience, this looks like a record low contribution, at less than 40%; running out of NG again, today?
• oil: for #2 among sources; providing 22% supply; tied with nuclear which is maxed out (nuclear is maxed out).
• hydro: at only 5% suggests incredibly expensive or other contract limitations
• renewables: holding up surprisingly well; blizzard not affecting wind?
• coal: insignificant; trending toward zero; did they use coal stockpiles; roads closed; no more coal deliveries? 

A reader who follows this much more closely than I do might be able to explain coal at zero percent when price of electricity is now at record highs; in the 8th decile. For newbies, based on the "screwiness" of the "deciles, we will "never" see prices in the 9th or 10th decile. In other words, electricity is now in the max decile in New England -- it can still go much higher, but it won't exceed the 8th decile .

Week 4: January 23, 2022 -- January 29, 2022

Top story of the week:

• Joe Biden is still president. The Biden boom.

Top international non-energy story of the week:

• Russia-Ukraine spat escalates; Putin separates US from Germany; crack in NATO;
• Trudeau goes into hiding;

Top international energy story of the week:

• EU / UK energy crisis worsens
• Across the board, countries are reneging on COP26 agreements; Japan; Denmark, Sweden, UK:
• WT
  

Top national non-energy story of the week:

• New England cyclone-bomb; Winter Storm Kenan, and, here; NE ISO on the brink of disaster.
• Earnings: AAPL blows away estimates; PSX; CVX surprises "everyone"; misses estimates; and, here;
• The Fed spooks the market;
• China okays AMD - XLNX merger;
  

Top national energy story of the week:

• US federal judge vacates federal government's largest GoM lease; and, here;
  
• Maverick acquires some of COP's Permian Basin assets;
• Natural gas spikes; one-day spike; largest jump ever in one day;
• Gasoline demand in free fall; no one talking about it.
• Geoff Simon's quick connects.
  

Top North Dakota non-energy story of the week:

• Longest-serving attorney general dies suddenly and unexpectedly; not Covid-related; huge friend of oil sector; guided the players through the Bakken revolution;
• Williston: to be site of world's largest data center;
  

Top North Dakota energy story of the week:

• Project Tundra, update;
• Legacy Fund deposits continue to grow;

Operators:

• Hess: 2022 CAPEX; update for 2022;
• Hess continues to report great wells;
• CLR building a position in the Powder River Basin; and, here;
• Hess reports four nice BB-State wells in Blue Buttes;
  

Operations:

• MRO with another monster well;
• Seven completed MRO monster DUCs;
• Carbon capture and storage permits;
• Monster wells reported by MRO;
• CLR has completed its eleven-well Gordon Federal pad; winter fur pad;
• Enerplus very active: in the FB Leviathan; winter fur pad;

Wells:

• The incredible CLR Mountain Gap wells updated;
  

Fracking:

Halo effect:

• An old well with 54x jump in production;

Pipelines:

Bakken economy:

Commentary:

• How the Bakken shale revolution saved Europe;
• Everyone talks about $100-oil;

Clearing Out The In-Box -- Friday Night -- January 28, 2022

ISO NE: might as well start here. It's gonna be a rough weekend. Right now:

Note the nuclear flat line until later this afternoon. See max nuclear below.  

From an earlier post:

For the record (from a reader who has better data points than I do on this issue),  max capacity, all numbers rounded and rounded slightly higher. I have no idea how accurate these are but they will provide me a baseline from which to start:

• fuel mix
  
• coal: 400 MW
• hydro: 1,000 MW (today's max: 750 MW)
• oil: 2,600 MW
• nuclear: 3,350 MW
• renewables: 2,000 MW
• natural gas, so far today: 4,200 MW

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In Other News

Natural gas:

• Southern Energy Corp will spud three Selma Chalk horizontal wells in the Gwinville field targeting natural gas
• Mississippi Interior Salt Basin: MISB is the most productive basin in the north-eastern Gulf Coast Region
• the basin has produced more than 1.5 billion bbls of oil and approximately 6.5 trillion cubic feet of gas;

Canada and the pipeline: link here -- 

• Alberta's Premier J Kenny is in DC
• says oil "supply is not a problem"
• the limitation is on shipment capacity through pipelines
• the "veto of Keystone" is the big impediment for Alberta

Phillips 66: open to M&A in retail, midstream. Link here. Investors take note.

S/P the Chevron debacle:

• Chevron to boost Permian output by 10 percent; link here;
• will double its spending on the top shale play:
• The second-largest US producer has earmarked about $3bn in spending on its Permian operations. It anticipates just over 200 wells being put on production in 2022, which would represent a 50pc increase over last year.
• "That is a meaningful step-up in activity," chief executive Mike Wirth said today after Chevron posted fourth quarter earnings. 

Permian, link here to Rystad Energy:

• Permian new well productivity set to breach 1,000 boepd in 2022 on record lateral footage;

S/P the Chevron debacle, link here:

• commenting on federal judge canceling GoM leases: "disappointed." Link here. 

SPR release: link here --

• trading houses set to capitalize on the release;

Pemex: link to Reuters --

• output rises 3% for the entire year, 2021; misses target;

Coal: link to Bloomberg paywall --

• far from dying, the coal sector is actually booming;

Apple earnings: link here --

• Apple did about $1.4 billion in revenues every day during 1Q22:
• reported 1Q22 net income: $34.6 billion
• the net income exceeds the market caps of HAL and BKR ($28 billion)
• AAPL's 88 cents / share dividend ($14 billion) is 2x bigger than EQT -- the largest gas producer in the US.

Whiting With Three New Sanish Permits; Six Permits Renewed -- January 28, 2022

Active rigs:

$86.82	1/28/2022	01/28/2021	01/28/2020	01/28/2019	01/28/2018
Active Rigs	30	13	53	65	57

Three new permits, #38762 - #38764, inclusive:

• Operator: Whiting
• Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
• Comments: Whiting has permits for three Locken / Locken Federal permits in Sanish oil field, 
• to be sited in SWNW 11-153-91;
• the wells will be sited between 2115 FNL and  2171 FNL and between 843 FWL and  864 FWL; 

Six permits renewed:

• Liberty Resources (4): one Albertson permit, one Thronson E permit; one Orris permit; and, one Dolores permit, the former two in Mountrail County; the latter two in Burke County;
• Enerplus (2): a Fin permit and a Right permit both in Dunn County

So Much For Global Warming; UN's COP26: And Greta -- January 28, 2022

Japan's coal imports soar amid surging natural gas prices. Link to Charles Kennedy. 

Japan is set to import the highest quantity of coal in January in just over two years, as utilities scramble to get supplies for power generation amid high spot liquefied natural gas prices.

A cold and snowy winter in Japan has raised the electricity demand, and domestic utilities are looking to buy more coal for power generation.

Japan is expected to import over 17.3 million tons of coal in January, according to Edwin Toh, a dry bulk manager at Kpler.

The volume would be Japan’s highest level of coal imports in one month since December 2019 and around 5 percent over the five-year seasonal average.