NDSU Handily Defeats East Tennessee State -- FCS -- Quarterfinals -- Moves On To Semifinals Vs James Madison -- December 11, 2021

Today:

• Villanova, 21 -- SDSU, 35 -- FCS -- Quarterfinals --
• #1 Sam Houston, 19 vs #8 Montana State, 42 -- FCS -- Quarerfinals

Yesterday:

• James Madison, 28  -- Montana, 6 -- FCS -- Quarterfinals 

Semi-finals:

• James Madison vs NDSU -- Friday, December 17, 2021, 9:15 p.m.
  
• SDSU vs Montana -- Saturday, December 18, 2021, 2:00 p.m. 

Championship: January 8, 2022, 2:00 p.m.

***********************************
Grapevine Lake

Kiri paddleboarding on Grapevine Lake, north Texas. Quite cool, but calm.

SPR Release -- December 11, 2021

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic mistakes. In a note like this there will be content and typographical errors. 

Link here.

• Brandon's swap: 32 million bbls
• global crude oil demand: 100 million bbls / day
• US crude oil demand: "I don't have those numbers in front of me."
• US SPR in round numbers: 600 million bbls
• US SPR: degree of protection --- many different ways of reporting; see below
• next release, next week: 18 million bbls -- which just about equals one day of US total crude oil demand
• XOM will get almost 25% of that release -- or about six hours of US crude oil consumption
• unsaid but China, India will probably bid on the rest
• one way of looking at the US SPR, degree of protection, for calendar year 2019, as of December 31, 2019, the SPR's crude oil inventory was 635 million bbls; equivalent to approximately 1,069 days of supply of total US petroleum net imports. Link here.
• comment: from my perspective, this is all a "conventional" way of thinking going back to the 1973 OPEC embargo and really doesn't have anything to do with how things are in 2021/2021 -- but, then, that's just me, I guess
• others suggest the US SPR has only about 100 days of US demand, but as noted, one can do many different calculations using different assumptions
• 600 million bbls in the SPR; US imports average 6 million bbls/day, gross, not net -- rounding;  

**********************************
Active Rigs And Frack Spreads -- US Data

Link here. 

For newbies, a "frack spread" is the "whole enchilada" for fracking a well: trucks, frackers, pumps. 

Spend some time on this graphic; one can make some interesting observations:

GM -- EV -- Detroit, Lansing -- $3 Billion -- December 10, 2021

Link here.

• GM - $3 billion
• two EV-related projects
• suburban Detroit, Orion Assembly plant: hub for its electric pickup trucks
• $2 billion; 1,500 jobs
• Lansing, MI
• 50-50 joint venture between GM and LG Energy Solutions
• battery partner
• $2 billion split; 1,200 jobs

Obvious questions:

• source of semiconductor chips?
• software partner?
• who will do the software design work?

***********************************
A Musical Interlude

Time for the head phones and loud music.

All You Ever Do Is Bring Me Down, Mavericks

Week 49: December 5, 2021 -- December 11, 2021

Top story of the week:

• Brandon's cough turned out to be "nothing."

Top international non-energy story:

• Daimler spins off Truck Group.
  

Top international energy story:

• Saudi production and price, both down.
• UK/EU energy crisis continues.
• US to become global leader in LNG exports.

Top national non-energy story:

• CPI: 6.8%. Panic. Market surges.
• AAPL breakout.
• Governments quietly raise weight limits on trucks to accommodate EVs.

Top national energy story:

• Venture Global LNG export terminals update.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

• Quick connects.

Operators:

• Random look at Sinclair in the Bakken.
• Devon: $10,000 bonuses.
  

Operations:

• Twenty-seven permits renewed.

Wells:

• CLR's Woodrow Star "A" well back on line.
• An incredible WPX Nokota well.
• MRO Fisher USA: a 30-fold jump in production.
• An Oasis Wold well with 10-fold jump in production.
• A padful of wonderfulness: an MRO pad.
• Slawson well has just gone over 700K with no pump.
• An XTO well goes over one million bbls crude oil cumulative.
  

Fracking:

Pipelines:

• The Midwest Carbon Express would be the world's largest.

Bakken economy: 

Commentary:

Miscellaneous:

• Covid-19 omicron a dud.
• Apple granted delay in Epic case.

Meanwhile, the EU / UK energy crisis:

AAPL -- December 10, 2021

Without question, the biggest story of the day for me, was AAPL.

Consider checking out the "AAPL feed" on twitter.

At the close, AAPL market cap: $2.944 trillion.

AAPL closed at $179.45, up $4.89, up 2.80% and held the gain after hours.

To get to a $3-trillion-market cap, AAPL shares need to get to slightly less than $183 / share.

MSFT: market cap at $2.572 trillion. 

Five reasons to buy AAPL; one reason to sell. Motley Fool. 

Most interesting:

Apple already trades at 30 times forward earnings. That's a very high price-to-earnings ratio for a company that is expected to grow its revenue and earnings by 4% and 2%, respectively, this year. Next year, analysts expect its revenue and earnings to grow just 4% and 7%, respectively.

Could someone remind me the P/E of Tesla? Oh, there it is, thank you: 330. 

But back to this, revenue and earnings growth:

• 2021: 4%; 2%
• 2022: 4%; 7%

If your revenue growth rate is flat, but your earnings (profit) rate more than triples, wouldn't that suggest margins are increasing? Or the company expenses, taxes, yada, yada, yada.

****************************
Santa Claus Rally

To continue through end of the year and into January, 2022. Writer argues that the semiconductor sector is the true indicator of the US economy. I can't disagree. 

US household wealth: at an all-time record high -- $144.7 trillion. Link here. It's an interesting article. Most noteworthy: the value of equities held by households and nonprofits fell by $300 billion -- this was back in the third quarter, July - September, 2021. It will be interesting to see the 4Q21 number. 

Much more data and analysis at ZeroHedge. 

One of the interesting data points: household debt at $17.6 trillion. One would expect that number to increase with increasing price of homes, used cars, new cars, EV (particularly), higher education. 

Also, unsaid, the length of loans. All things being equal, wouldn't longer periods for loans increase overall debt? Could be wrong on that.