Random Reminder

At oilprice.com, to get directly to Williston Basin oil prices, click on "200+ Oil Prices" and then see graphic below:

The Market, Energy, Political Story, T+33 -- July 3, 2018

API, weekly US crude oil inventories, pending.

EVs.

• GM's Chevy Bolts, down 22.6% in 2Q18

More than enough global oil to offset Iran sanctions: so says "senior" US State Dept spokesman; not everyone agrees. WTI surges, opens right at $75 -- huge psychological milestone; makes for a nice headline;

• WTI: $75
• Brent: $78.24
• WTI/Brent spread: less than $5
• LLS: $77.33 (DAPL-Bakken proxy)
• OPEC basket: $74.31

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

For the archives:

• OAS: $13.09, up 3.5%
• NOG: $3.22, up 3.5%
• CLR: $64, 24, up 2.65%
• TSLA: $323, down 3.6% (hmmm, just after Tesla met production goal)
• S: $5.40, down half a percent
• SRE: flat
• EOG: $125, up 2%
• CVX: $126, up 1.%
• COP: $71.33, up 2.75%
• AAPL: flat, stuck in a trading range around $187

Tariffs: Canada imposes 10% tariff on US Heinz ketchup. Owned by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway.

Refinery: St Croix --

• opportunity -- low sulfur content required in marine fuels; restrictions begin in 2020
• refinery operations could begin as son as next year (2019)
• in the 1970's, the former Hovensa refinery on St Croix was one of the world's largest, able to process 650,000 bpd
• halted processing in 2012, filed for bankruptcy; became a storage site
• BP will supply oil
• the refinery would process up to 150,000 bpd

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The History Page

From The Vertigo Years, Europe, 1900 - 1914, Philipp Blom, c. 2008

From the book's introduction, p. 2:

In 1900, the most profound change of all was that in the relationship between men and women, and many indications point towards a deep anxiety on the part of men whose position seemed no longer secure. For the first time in European history women were being educated en masse, earning their own money, demanding the vote and, crucially, suggesting that in an industrial age physical strength and martial virtues were becoming useless. Men reacted with an aggressive restatement of the old values; never before had so many uniforms been seen on the street or so many duels fought,never before had there been so many classified advertisements for treatments allegedly curing 'male maladies' and 'weak nerves'; and never before had to many men complained of exhaustion and nervousness, and found themselves admitted to sanatoriums and even mental hospitals.

Something tells this is going to be a much more interesting book than I originally thought when I pulled it off the book shelf to read.

More, p. 3:

In a large part, the uncertain future facing us early in the twenty-first century arose from the inventions, thoughts and transformations of those unusually rich fifteen years between 1900 and 1914, a period of extraordinary creativity in the arts and sciences, of enormous change in society and in the very image people had of themselves. Everything that was to become important during the twentieth century -- from quantum physics to women's emancipation, from abstract art to space travel, from communism and fascism to the consumer society, from industrialized slaughter to the power of the media -- had already made deep impressions in the years before 1914, so that the rest of the century was little more than an exercise, wonderful and hideous by turn, in living out and exploring these new possibilities.

WTI Flirting With $75 -- July 3, 2018 -- Farmers/Ranchers Are Managers, Not Agricultural Workers -- CDC

Suicide: North Dakota had the largest suicide rate increased from 1999 to 2016 of any state in the nation. It's a complicated story. See the note down below the RBN Energy entry.

EpiPens: the 2016 post about EpiPens, for some reason, trends #1 at the blog. I mentioned that last week. It is still trending #1 -- see sidebar at the right. Now an update: a competitor set to release an "equivalent, alternative" to the EpiPen.

Help! We're gonna need more than an additional 2 million bopd from Saudi Arabia.  Just looking at overnight price of WTI.

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Bakken

Wells coming off confidential list today:

• 33941, SI/NC, MRO, Rue USA 44-19TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data,
• 33905, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-9A-4-1HS, Charlson, no production data,

Active rigs:

$74.74↑	7/3/2018	07/03/2017	07/03/2016	07/03/2015	07/03/2014
Active Rigs	66	57	30	76	190

RBN Energy: the Conway vs Mont Belvieu propane/NGL differential blowout. Another metric I've never followed. What's this all about?

For 10 years prior to 2018, the differential between propane prices at the Conway, KS, hub averaged less than a nickel per gallon below Mont Belvieu. In fact, between 2013 and 2017, the price spread was only 3.5 c/gal — excluding a winter 2014 Polar Vortex aberration — which basically reflects the cost of moving barrels 700 miles north-to-south. Not this year, though. After starting 2018 at 3 c/gal, the propane price spread took off, and has averaged 18 c/gal since April, some days moving above 26 c/gal, far above the per-bbl cost of transporting propane 700 miles south to Mont Belvieu. Is it pipeline capacity constraints? In part. But there is a much more significant factor driving this differential wider, not only in the propane market, but across all five of the NGL purity products. What is this mysterious factor? To find out, read on. But here’s your first clue: the problem is not in Kansas anymore.

The propane market is a frequent topic here in the RBN blogosphere. For the most part, our blogs have tended to focus on the NGL super-hub in Mont Belvieu, TX, with only occasional references to Conway, the second most actively traded U.S. NGL market with reliable, transparent market price indices covered by industry trade publications. For that reason, the next couple of paragraphs provide a bit of background on the Conway hub and NGL product flows south to Mont Belvieu.

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The Suicide Story

The suicide story. First, from The Williston Herald. Didn't quite explain why farmers and ranchers are not considered "Triple F."

Now, the full story:

It turns out the Center for Disease Control's (CDC) widely cited 2016 study showing farmers with the nation's highest suicide rate was wrong.

The agency on Friday retracted the data, which showed that people working "in farming, fishing and forestry" had suicide rates of 84.5 per 100,000 people, four times the national average.

What happened: CDC spokeswoman Courtney Lenard wrote in an email to New Food Economy that the agency incorrectly included farmers and ranchers with agricultural workers in the farming, fishing and forestry (also known as Triple-F) category.

Lenard explained that farmers and ranchers should instead have been classified as managers.

Triple F workers now have the third highest suicide rate behind "construction and extraction" workers and people working in "installation, maintenance and repair."

Random Update Of Select CLR Carson Peak And Morris Wells In Oakdale Field -- July 2, 2018

Random production data for select CLR Carson Peak and Morris wells. This page will not be updated; these wells are tracked here.

Look at the bump in production in this well:

• 17079, 559, CLR, Carson Peak 44-2H, t6/08; cum 301K 5/18; a re-frack candidate;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2018	15	1167	1614	78	980	980	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	2457	2359	123	1861	1747	114
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	2441	2088	105	1799	1484	315
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	2244	2362	95	1512	1501	11
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	2593	2585	107	1771	1771	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	2493	2549	155	1694	1694	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	3476	3467	98	2294	2276	18
BAKKEN	10-2017	25	433	220	308	172	172	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	159	0	0	14	14	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	179	212	22	43	37	6
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	211	235	43	79	61	18
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	143	236	308	43	43	0
BAKKEN	5-2017	30	350	218	145	188	179	9
BAKKEN	4-2017	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2017	28	596	697	28	406	406	0
BAKKEN	2-2017	28	616	673	45	419	409	10

The following well is now off-line:

• 17334, 811, CLR, Morris 1-23H, t11/08/ cum 275K 5/18; another re-frack candidate;

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2018	2	22	0	33	26	0	26
BAKKEN	4-2018	29	835	1435	108	943	873	70
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	1163	713	188	1320	1320	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	1069	930	148	1128	1128	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	1231	1422	188	1248	1248	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	1229	1410	200	1074	1074	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	1190	908	225	1007	1007	0

The following well has an incredibly nice production profile:

• 18859, 680, CLR, Carson Peak 3-35H, t5/11; cum 655K 5/18; 

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	4185	4570	520	3341	3341	0
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	4104	3918	660	3465	3465	0
BAKKEN	3-2018	31	3309	3075	1193	2605	2605	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	2974	2931	803	2292	2292	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	2433	2533	1694	1470	1470	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	31	2510	2397	1097	1885	1880	5
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	3283	3280	177	2762	2762	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	3374	3603	279	2555	2555	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	3267	3078	342	3234	3234	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	3365	3552	217	3707	3645	62

The following well also has an incredibly nice production history:

• 18861, 759, CLR, Carson Peak 2-35H, t5/11; cum 703K 5/18; an IP of less than 800 bbls/24 hours, and cumulative of over 700,000 bbls in about seven years, used "old" completion strategies; 

Monthly Production Data:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	4441	4572	612	3773	3711	62
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	4630	4648	928	3911	3811	100
BAKKEN	3-2018	20	2716	2494	1213	2024	2024	0
BAKKEN	2-2018	28	3703	3716	1228	3274	3274	0
BAKKEN	1-2018	25	2125	1718	2483	1643	1643	0
BAKKEN	12-2017	25	2364	2600	988	2271	2271	0
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	3708	3712	203	3682	3682	0
BAKKEN	10-2017	31	3878	4060	274	3937	3937	0
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	3664	3538	208	3315	3315	0
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	3621	3787	187	3184	3184	0
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	3799	3595	202	3549	3270	279
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	3805	3812	193	3688	3688	0

Backwardation, Contango, Confused, Futures, And All That Jazz -- July 2, 2018

Finally, after ten years of blogging, I've finally thrown in the towel and decided it's time to try to figure out this stuff: futures, contracts, contango (normal); backwardation (abnormal). [Normal/abnormal as is applies to a depleting resource like crude oil.] I've gotten some great help from at least four readers, and one reader in particular. Thank you very much.

I've linked "crude oil futures" at the sidebar at the right, as well as at my "Data Links" page.

At the sidebar at the right, just below the poll(s).

I know 0.000001% of any of this, so if this is important to you, go to some other source. I assume I will make typographical and factual mistakes -- probably  many of the latter. Don't let me know about typographic errors unless it makes a huge difference in the post. However, if there are "factual errors" / errors in content, please let me know ASAP (as soon as possible). If it's a really, really big error in content, let me know STAT (that's even faster).

Rumor has it the terms "backwardation" and "contango" came from an economist's dream.