Making America Great Again -- The WSJ -- November 20, 2017

From the WSJ this evening:

Don’t look now, but U.S. growth forecasts are moving higher. That’s helping to support U.S. stocks.

Projections for U.S. economic growth from two Federal Reserve banks have risen in recent weeks. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Friday forecast that gross domestic product will rise 3.8% in the fourth quarter, up from a forecast of 3.2% a week earlier.

A separate measure from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta forecast 3.4% growth last week. Research firm DataTrek noted that the rival forecasts are outpacing projections from human economists, who on average expect 2.7% growth for the quarter.
Even if the less optimistic Atlanta Fed model is correct, it would be the best quarter for the U.S. economy in more than three years.

The central banks’ forecasts are derived from statistical models that track incoming economic data, and are used by traders to gauge the health of the economy.

The estimates have been the subject of some contention as they often offer diverging views on the health of the economy. The recent harmony between the two measures means “economists may have some catching up to do,” according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.

Much more at the link.

It's hard to believe but "Trump" was not mentioned in the article. Nor was "Obama."

Re-posting: GDP Now forecasts 3.4% for 4Q17.

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Notes For The Granddaughters

Tuna from Costco. Potato salad from Tom Thumb grocery store across the street.

FERC Approves Columbia's West Virginia / Virginia NG Pipeline -- November 20, 2017

An earlier post:

March 17, 2016: the deal is announced -- TransCanada will buy Columbia for $10.2 billion. It looks like Warren Buffett missed a deal.

Today, from Platts: Columbia gets FERC sign-off for 1.3 Bcf/d WB XPress pipeline project.

Columbia Gas Transmission won certificate approval Friday from the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for the 29-mile, 1.3 Bcf/d WB XPress natural gas pipeline project.

The project will increase capacity along Columbia's existing WB Line, which runs bi-directionally through West Virginia and the northern part of Virginia.

The project will pick up gas around Braxton County, West Virginia, and deliver 500 MMcf/d eastbound into interconnects with Cove Point Pipeline and Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line as well as sending 800 MMcf/d westbound into interconnects with Tennessee Gas at Broad Run and existing Columbia infrastructure including Columbia Gas Appalachia Pool.

The FERC action came after Columbia parent TransCanada recently warned FERC of pressure on its schedules for WB XPress and its 171-mile, 2.7 Bcf/d Mountaineer XPress project without prompt approval, particularly as an environmental window controlling timing of tree clearing had already opened.

It's "funny" how things work out. Although the Keystone XL is important for a number of reasons, in the big scheme of things, with regard to pipelines, the big story for the US has been and will be natural gas pipelines.

US refiners need heavy oil -- two sources: Canada and Venezuela. But US refiners will get the heavy oil they need -- it may be just more expensive than necessary.

The real story right now: natural gas pipelines. And fortunately the current administration and FERC support natural gas pipelines. 

The Daily Note

The Last 65 Days Of His First Term

Days 331 - 365
Days 301 - 330 -- this page

The Trump Presidency (201 - 300)
The Third 100 Days

The Third 30 Days + 10 (261 - 300)
The Second 30 Days (Days 231 - 260)
The First 30 Days (Days 201 - 230)

The Trump Presidency (101 - 200)
The Second 100 Days
 The Third 30 Days + 10 (161 - 200)
The Second 30 Days (Days 131 - 160)
 The First 30 Days (Days 101 - 130)

The Trump Presidency (1 - 100)
The First 100 Days
The Third 30 days + 10

The Second 30 Days 
The First 30 Days

Between Election And Inauguration (1 - 100)
The Third 10 Days

The Second 30 Days

The First 30 Days

December 17, 2017, T+330: another NFL-free Sunday.

December 16, 2017, T+329: NDSU buries its South Carolina opponent, 55-13. Will now advance to Finals against Madison who beat them in the semifinals last year.

December 15, 2017, T+328: Marco Rubio says he will now vote for the tax bill.

December 14, 2017, T+327: Marco Rubio says he can't vote for the tax bill as it stands; last minute.

December 13, 2017, T+326: all eyes on the tax bill.

December 12, 2017, T+325: market surges 130 points, setting new records.

December 11, 2017, T+324: quiet. Things look bad for the GOP in the US Senate.

December 10, 2017, T+323: another NFL-free Sunday.

December 9, 2017, T+322: a reporter, previously fired for reported fake news, and then re-hired by The Washington Post, tweeted fake news about President Trump. Caught red-handed; apologized; deleted the tweet; and, said he was not tweeting for The Washington Post.

December 8, 2017, T+321: the polls are in, and it appears Al Franken's "pity speech" yesterday fell far short of a true statesman. Maybe he can come back and run for the US presidency.

December 7, 2017, T+320: Al Franken announces that he will resign in the coming weeks. The US Senate democrats have set a very, very high bar. Al Franken was very well liked by his colleagues; his fall happened very, very quickly. There is very likely any number of other US Senate democrats that are worried what might come out of the woodwork. Most US Senators have been in office much longer than Al Franken.

December 6, 2017, T+319: the liberal media suggests that Trump will be impeached; the conservative media suggests Bob Mueller's investigation is starting to fall apart. Profile in courage: after 22 years, President Trump does what Congress voted to do with regard to Jerusalem. Senator Schumer advocated for this move. Clinton, Bush 43, nor Barack had the courage to do this.

December 5, 2017, T+318: Representative Conyers, age 88, says he wants to spend more time with his family.

December 4, 2017, T+317: the Trump rally continues.

December 3, 2017, T+316: president tweets and tweets and tweets. Gets Congressional attention.

December 2, 2017, T+315: ABC suspends top political reporter for four weeks without pay for reporting fall story on General Flynn. On top of that: General Flynn's agreement to plead guilty reveals no "smoking gun." Worse, General Flynn accused of only one offense: lying to the FBI. And, of course, he did that thinking he was protecting a legitimately elected president.

December 1, 2017, T+314: ABC reports entirely false story about General Flynn. Stock market plunges 350 points.

November 30, 2017, T+313: Parliamentarian scuttles scheduled vote on GOP tax bill.

November 29, 2017, T+312: "Mr Market" is betting the tax bill is passed by the US Senate. I don't see it happening. But maybe Collins and McCain will be the only two to vote with the democrats on this issue.

November 28, 2017, T+311: tea leaves suggest Trump's tax bill will go down in flames. US Senate leaders hope to vote on Thursday (in two days).

November 27, 2017, T+310: Quiet.

November 26, 2017, T+309: all-time US retail shopping records being sent. Donald Trump's first Thanksgiving as president.

November 25, 2017, T+308: from CNBC -- (and archived here)

• Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley is giving President Trump yet another major victory on judicial nominations.
• None of this would have been possible without Harry Reid's decision to kill the filibuster.
• The result is Trump will get to fill the most federal judiciary vacancies in 40 years.

November 24, 2017, T+307: Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hit new records. CNBC notes that but does not mention the "Trump rally."

November 23, 2017, T+306: Thanksgiving.

November 22, 2017, T+305: quiet. Trump off to Florida White House -- hardly gets any press coverage -- which is good news.

November 21, 2017, T+304: market surging just before Thanksgiving.

November 20, 2017, T+303: Nebraska regulators "approve" the idea of a new crude oil pipeline crossing part of their state called the Keystone XL, but did not approve the route.

November 19, 2017, T+302: another NFL-free Sunday. Martin Truex, Jr, wins the NASCAR championship. None of the drivers "took a knee" prior to race start.

November 18, 2017, T+301: Saturday, quiet.

The Political Page, T+303 -- November 20, 2017

Keystone XL: Nebraska regulators approve 3 - 2 the "concept" that TransCanada can build the Keystone XL pipeline through their state .. but not where the company had planned. Back to square one. Even if TransCanada agrees to the new route, what's not to say that the Nebraska state supreme court won't step in and stop the whole thing? All this "excitement" that the pipeline has been approved is grossly misplaced.

It's hard to believe but I had 49 episodes of "As The World Turns" following the Keystone XL story. The 49th episode is at this link.

Another one bites the dust:

I can think of a half-dozen others that might yet be accused. Clue: think of the anchors that are not touching this story.

Kaepernick Kapers: it appears that what started as a one-man protest again "something," the NFL players protest has morphed into a protest against the NFL owners. At some point, the word "plantation" is going to enter the conversation. Again.

XTO With Eight New Permits; Two DUCs Reported As Completed -- November 20, 2017

Active rigs:

$56.23→	11/20/2017	11/20/2016	11/20/2015	11/20/2014	11/20/2013
Active Rigs	56	39	65	186	185

Eight (8) new permits:

• Operator: XTO
• Field: North Fork (McKenzie)
• Comments: XTO has permits for what appears to be one 8-well Arlene Federal pad or two closely spaced four-well pads; four wells will be located in NESE 23-149-97; and four wells will be located in SESE 23-149-97

Twelve permits renewed (this comes on top of 41 permits renewed on one day late last week):

• Crescent Point Energy (4): two CPEUSC Ruby permits; two CPEUSC Holmes permits, all in Williams County  
• Petroshale (3): three Petroshale US permits in McKenzie County
• EOG (2): two Wayzetta permits in Mountrail County
• Petro-Hunt (2): two Noonan Federal permits in McKenize County
• CLR: one Stewart permit in Divide County

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 28463, 715, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-96-24C-13-4H, Keene, t11/17; cum --
• 30759, 671, Sinclair Oil & Gas, Nelson 25-26XH, Parshall, t9/17; cum 5K over 11 days