4Q16 GDP Forecast: 2.9% -- GDP Now -- December 2, 2016

GDP Now:  Latest 4Q16 forecast: 2.9 percent — December 1, 2016.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2016 is 2.9 percent on December 1, up from 2.4 percent on November 30.

After this morning's construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecasts of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth and real government spending growth increased from 7.1 percent to 12.4 percent and 0.1 to 0.6 percent, respectively.

The forecast of real nonresidential structures investment growth fell from 1.4 percent to -3.4 percent after the same report. The forecasts of real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 2.2 percent to 2.5 percent and 4.6 to 6.6 percent, respectively, after this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report on Business from the Institute of Supply Management and the incorporation of earlier released November data in the model's estimate of its dynamic economic activity factor. The factor is used to forecast yet-to-be released monthly source data for GDP.

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US Crude Oil Imports From Saudi Arabia Have Hardly Changed

The average amount of US crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia in the month of September = 1.269 million bopd. [Ten-year average 2006 - 2015, inclusive.] Source.

September, 2016: 1.209 million bopd.

Week 48: November 27, 2016 -- December December 3, 2016

Top story of the past week? North Dakota was named to the number one spot on Fast magazine's list of states with the best business prospect in 2017. If Bakken 2.0 hits its stride by June, 2017, there is no question in my mind that North Dakota will see activity that has not been seen in years. Goldman Sachs supply-demand graph. There are three likely "bands":

• $45 - $55 oil, 75% likelihood: slight increase in activity
• $56 - $65 oil, 20% likelihood: significant increase in activity
• trending toward $75 oil, 5% likelihood: a second Bakken boom

Possibly that was the top story of the week, but for me, this was unquestionably the top story of the week: the report that the breakeven costs in the Bakken a) compare favorably with those in the Mideast; and, b) the Bakken has some of the lowest break even costs among the various unconventional oil plays in the US.

Internationally, of course, was the story that OPEC agreed to a production cut/freeze for the first time in eight years.

Operations
Active rigs jump to 40 in North Dakota
Crescent Point Energy reports a 70-stage fracked well
Crude oil production in North Dakota for September, 2016
Bakken crude oil receiving terminal proposed for Washington State 

Fracking
Fracking sand 101

Pipelines
North Dakota borrows another $7 million for DAPL-related security costs
US Army Corps of Engineers closes protest camp -- but won't enforce 
Another pipeline expansion proposed for the Bakken

Miscellaneous:
WHS Wind Ensemble names the 2016 - 2017 Governor's Band
BHI will build a new fracking and cementing services company with BJ Services name 
US stock market: the Trump rally; the OPEC rally
Winter storm Blanche hammers North Dakota
Saudi Arabia and the Red Queen
US LNG exports continue to surge

North Dakota -- #1 On The Business Prospect List -- Fast Magazine -- December 2, 2016

This is quite interesting. I don't know if folks are acquainted with Fast magazine -- a very legitimate, credible magazine. For North Dakota to be on the short list, much less #1, that's quite impressive. From the Williston Herald linked via a tweet:

Although oil prices plunged from $100 a barrel to $40 two years ago, studies have continued to predict a positive economic outlook for North Dakota. 

A recent study conducted by Fast Company, a business magazine that focuses on technology, business and design, ranked North Dakota No. 1 for best economic prospects for 2017.

This is the Fast magazine story, posted three days ago. Based on data from:

• Bureau of Labor Statistics;
• the Bureau of Economic Analysis;
• the Kauffman startup Index; and, 
• Zillow

The top ten states with best economic prospects for 2017:

• North Dakota at #1
• Oklahoma
• Texas
• Michigan
• California
• Montana
• Ohio
• Washington
• Minnesota
• Massachusetts

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NDIC Daily Activity Report

Active rigs:

	12/2/2016	12/02/2015	12/02/2014	12/02/2013	12/02/2012
Active Rigs	39	64	189	192	182

Four (4) producing wells (DUCs) reported as being completed:

• 26974, 1,269, Kostelnak 145-97-29B-32-2H, Little Knife, t11/16; cum --
• 30432, 2,563, Statoil, Jack 21-16 2H, East Fork, t11/16; cum 4K over first 31 days;
• 31867, 1,079, CLR, Nashville 5-21H, Catwalk, t11/16; cum --
• 31868, 607, CLR, Nashville 4-21H1, Catwalk, t11/16; cum --

And that's all there was.

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Christmas Toy Donations -- December 2, 2016

Sophia is now 2.5 years old. She knows how to use a cell phone. She can make phone calls -- although the calls are pretty random. She can find the photo app on an iPad and swipe through the photos. On YouTube she can point to the video she wants to watch.

Hold that thought.

The manager in our apartment complex does the usual "Christmas toy" thing every year -- inviting residents to bring in a toy or two that can be donated to various organizations at Christmas. This year I had Sophia help me. I simple went to Amazon and then "brought down" a page of toys for boys and/or girls in various age ranges, and then I had Sophia point to the one(s) she would like. If the toy was within my price range, I placed it in the "cart." After we filled the electronic cart, I pushed a few more buttons, and with Prime, the toys will be here in two days and in the manager's office in three.

Easy as 1-2-3.

WHS Wind Ensemble Named The 2016 - 2017 Governor's Official State Band -- December 2, 2016

From The Williston Wire:

Gov. Jack Dalrymple has announced that the Williston High School Wind Ensemble and the Sheyenne High School Concert Choir have been selected to serve as the 2016-2017 Governor's Official State Band and Chorus.

"Congratulations to the Williston High School Wind Ensemble and the Sheyenne High School Concert Choir for being named this year's Governor's Official Band and Chorus," Dalrymple said.

"These are two very accomplished organizations and they will represent North Dakota with pride and enthusiasm." The WHS Wind Ensemble is directed by Eric Rooke.

Perhaps the WHS wind ensemble will be in Washingon, DC, when the ND governor submits the state's single ballot for president (in an election in which no one garners 270 electoral votes, each state will get one vote; that vote will be submitted by the "leader" of the state delegation). 

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Record Snowfall In The Dakotas

It's not often that both North and South Dakota make the IceAgeNow news but they did today: record snowfall. 

Send in the Kennedy grandchildren.