Short Wednesday Agenda For White House Wednesday -- March 17, 2015

___ Congratulatory phone call to Mr Netanyahu (this is almost hilarious)

✓    Breakfast with daughters; read "Daily Intel Briefing"

✓     fill out March Madness bracket; pick obvious winner   

___ Golf

___ Washington National Cathedral, Evensong -- the Cathedral choristers sing Choral Evensong on Monday through Thursday at 5:30 pm. The Men of the Choir join the choristers on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

*******************************

Evensong

It's too bad the White House had to cancel Evensong tonight (March 18, 2015). I don't think there is anything so rewarding, so peaceful, so "relaxing" as Evensong. When I was in Yorkshire on and off during my last seven years in the Air Force, I often attended Evensong on Sunday evenings at Ripon Cathedral. It truly was one of the high points of my week. This brings back wonderful memories.

Evensong, Ripon Cathedral

Chinese Demand For Oil Highest Since 2012 -- Not Surprising -- March 17, 2015; Meanwhile, COP Expects Production To Increase 11% Over Next Three Years; Africa's Biggest Oil Producer Hit Hard

A reader caught this, sent it to me. Platts is reporting:

China's apparent oil demand rose 2.6% over the first two months of this year to 83.92 million mt or an average 10.43 million b/d, Platts estimates showed Monday, March 16, based on recently released government data.

This is the highest rate of growth over the period since the 5.7% recorded in 2012.

Last year, there was a 0.6% year-on-year contraction in China's apparent oil demand over January to February.

When I saw that, I replied to the reader:

I wrote on the blog, I think, or personal e-mail to someone, that it will be interesting to see consumption of oil at it hits new lows.

Common sense tells me human nature is such that people will conserve less when it is so cheap.

I am very, very sensitive to the price of gasoline and do what I can to limit mileage when gasoline is expensive, but for the past few months, I have truly enjoyed driving, not worried about price of gasoline.

It will be interesting to see what American drivers do over Memorial Day weekend. I think the US sets a record of gasoline consumption this Memorial Day weekend. China, it appears, is doing its best to live up to human nature -- using more oil when it is so inexpensive. Smile.

****************************

CAPEX Cut -- Production To Rise Over At COP

Reuters/Rigzone is reporting:

ConocoPhillips expects production to climb 11 percent to touch 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboed) in 2017.

The company, whose forecast excludes output from Libya, produced 1.532 mmboed in 2014, a 4 percent rise from 2013.

ConocoPhillips said on Tuesday it expects output to grow 2-3 percent in 2015. It did not specify a growth rate for 2016.

The company, which cut its 2015 capital budget by $2 billion to $11.5 billion in January, said it expects to maintain spending at the new level for the next two years.

****************************

Nigeria To Cut Production

Reuters/Rigzone is reporting: Low Prices Will Hamper Nigeria's Bid To Boost Output Consistently.

Low oil prices will hamper Nigeria's bid to boost output to 4 million barrels per day (bpd), Oil Minister Diezani Alison-Madueke was quoted as saying on Tuesday at an oil and gas conference in the capital Abuja.

"Flexibility in CAPEX and funding in general will be further constrained in the year 2015."

Africa's biggest oil producer has been hit hard by global oil prices that have around halved since June, because it accounts for up to 80 percent of government revenues and about 95 percent of foreign reserves.

Individual companies will get hit hard in the US, but the country will do fine, despite the drop in oil prices. Saudi Arabia has huge cash reserve to weather the slump in oil prices. China is loving the cheap oil to fill up its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The counties that can least afford it -- west Africa, Venezuela, will be hit very, very hard. 

However, the graphic below is interesting. This shows the amount of oil imported into the US by the various countries, in thousands of barrels per month. Note the significant increase in Nigerian oil imported into the US for the most recent reporting period:

Random Update Of Producing Wells -- March 17, 2015

Some of the wells show unusual production patterns in December, 2014, - January, 2015, time-frame. Many (most? all?) of Statoil's Pyramid wells showed unusual production (almost none) in August, 2014.  Nothing remarkable in the big scheme of things.

Burlington Resources Bryce wells have been updated. One Bryce remains off-line:

• 18177, IA/1,844, BR, Bryce 31-5H, t10/09; cum 255K 11/13; minimal production since 9/13; very minor amounts as recently as 3/14; nothing in the filed report to provide any explanation

CLR's Atlanta wells have been updated.

WPX's Alfred Old Dog wells have been updated.

CLR's Hawkinson wells have been updated.

Statoil's Pyramid wells have been updated.

BR's Teton / Kings Canyon wells have been updated (nothing new; all remain confidential).

Zorro wells, QEP, in Grail oil field have been updated.

***************************************

A Note to the Granddaughters

I finally finished Alison Weir's Eleanor of Aquitaine, an excellent biography. I told May earlier today that awhile back I had grown tired of Alison Weir -- she seemed to have a cottage industry with British history, British kings and queens, back in the day. But I have to admit, she is very, very good. I did not realize how good she was until reading Eleanor of Aquitaine at the same time reading Dan Jones' new book, The Wars of The Roses. His style is completely different; at this point I do not care for him, but now that I have completed Weir's Eleanor, I can go back, start over with The War of the Roses and see if it grows on me.

However, I am now starting the book I've been looking forward to for some time, Duveen: A Life in Art, by Meryle Secrest, c. 2004. It was his art collection that Norton Simon bought in toto for his Pasadena museum. Ever since visiting the Norton Simon museum last summer, I've been eagerly looking forward to reading this book. Hardcover, $35; no longer sold by Amazon except through a third-party dealer, for about $5.00 and shipping and handling. Quite incredible.

The story begins with Duveen's father in the back streets of Hull, in Yorkshire. I spent a fair amount of time in Yorkshire in my last years in the Air Force, and know Hull well. It's an industrial town now and not particularly noteworthy, I suppose, for the typical American tourist. Interestingly enough, putting together my grandfather's history, it is very likely my paternal grandfather, when he emigrated from Norway to America came through Hull. He would have taken the boat from Trondheim to Hull on the east coast of England; then a train across England, to catch a boat from Liverpool to Ellis Island. It is known that my Norwegian grandfather received "free" passage from Liverpool to America in exchange for taking care of the horses that were on board ship, in one of the lower decks.

48-Acre Multi-Use Development Project To Break Ground This Year -- March 17, 2015

KXNews is reporting:

• a 48-acre development is set to break ground this year; easily the largest project ever to be built in the small town of Belfield
• a multi-use development with hotels, restaurants, travel centers, convenience stores, and several retail outlets
• Belfield Crossing will be located just North of Interstate 94 along Highway 85
• construction of the basic infrastructure to begin this year with total completion in three to four years
• The northern-most part of the development will consist of retail, restaurants, and a truck stop

Here We Go Again -- Solar Power In The Dead Of Winter In A Northern Latitude State -- March 17, 2015

Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. There may be errors below. If this is important to you, a) go to the source; and, b) check the numbers yourself. 

Folks may remember President Obama's visit to Standing Rock Reservation last year.  Today the AP is reporting that the reservation will get $1 million in federal funding for a $2 million solar project that will save the college about 20%/year or about $74,000 / year.

The $2 million will fund a 636 KW solar energy project --

$2 million / 636 KW = $2,000 million / 636 MW = $3.14 million / MW. That's in line with current costs of solar energy:

From an August 25, 2014, post, this is 30-second sound bite for "cost of renewable megawatt":

• Solar: $3 million / MW
• Wind: $2.5 million / MW
• Natural gas: $865,000 / MW

A reader recently wrote to tell me that in ten years the cost of solar energy would reach "parity" with coal. It should be noted that coal is less expensive than natural gas (above) but in the same ball park. It's hard to sort out the "true" cost of coal energy in the US due to all the Agore fees.

But if a $2 million project (equating to $3 million /MW compared to $865K / MW -- natural gas) is going to save the college 20% ($74,000 / year), it begs the question: what in the world was the college using for energy?

The 636 KW is nameplate capacity; no solar project reaches nameplate capacity. 

North Dakota has lots and lots of natural gas and coal, but not a whole lot of sunshine in the middle of winter ... oh, never mind ... some smart folks have really thought this out...

****************************

At Least It's Hard To Catch

Another four Americans who have come in contact with the "hard-to-catch-disease" are being flown out of Ebolaland to the US. Reuters is reporting.