It's A Race Against Time -- March 3, 2022

Race against time: the end of the oligarch era nears with Putin's miscalculation in Ukraine -- Bloomberg. 

Link here. Or direct to the paywall. Putin needs to have control of Ukraine before his oligarchs say enough is enough. He has less than ten days. Tipping point: today Lukoil has said enough is enough.

Updates

April 26, 2022: what Putin's War "means."

April 18, 2022: more evidence that the Russian economy is imploding. 

April 12, 2022: Biden calls it "genocide" in Ukraine. 

That's monumental. When the history books are written, Putin will go down as responsible for genocide. Putin is a student of history and knows what that means. Putin will join the ranks of Hitler, Turkey (Armenia), Spanish Inquisition.  

Putin also purged 100 to 150 of his spies stationed in Ukraine. Those not executed will be in prison for the rest of their lives.

April 7, 2022: Russian crude oil production. 

March 31, 2022: Putin calling up 135,000 new draftees for his war.

March 29, 2022: CNBC, five unintended consequences for Russia:

• Russian casualties are high;
• Ukrainians now loathe Russia
• economic ruin
• Europe is dropping Russian energy
• Russia has united the West
  

March 29, 2022: It is being reported that Russia is pulling back from Kiev. Yesterday, it was being reported that Russia was going to "pull back" to re-group, implying that the next assault will come next week. Others interpret this to mean Putin is ready to take whatever "concessions" he can from Zeleskyy. If so, it would suggest Mother Russia is feeling the pain, bigly. 

March 28, 2022: Each day this goes on, it only increases the time it will take Russia to return to where it was prior to the invasion. I wonder if each day of warfare from here on it will translate to another week, or another month, to "recover."

March 26, 2022: the Vietnam analogy.

March 24, 2022: the one-month anniversary, and not much to show for it except a lot of rubble. 

As Russia implodes, central Asia faces financial chaos. March 13, 2022.

Biden to revoke Russia's "most favored nation" trade status, joining with allies. March 11, 2022. 

Biden bans Russian oil. Some say this takes “it” to a new level. March 8, 2022.

Russia faces ruin. The [London] Telegraph, March 6, 2022.

Russian investments worthless -- Norway's wealth fund. March 4, 2022.

Switzerland adopts new EU sanctions on Russia. 

Russian refineries: starting to feel effects of foreign buys shunning Russian refined products. March 4, 2022.

Why Russian oil can't find buyers even as crude soars above $100 / bbl. Link here. Or direct to paywall at MarketWatch. 

Dumb and dumber: March 4, 2022. 

Original Post

Deutsche  Bank: will exit Russia. Link here. This is a "Russian" bank for all intents and purposes. 

JPMorgan: Russia's economy to contract 35% in 2Q22 and 7% in full calendar year 2022. Others suggest JPMorgan is being too optimistic. Link here. 

Martial law: perhaps as early as tomorrow, March 4, 2022, link here.

• Moscovites panicking; unable to get out of Dodge; no airlines available;

Tankers: this goes back to an earlier discussion regarding sea-going crude oil tankers. 

Suncor, chartered a Russian tanker to move its refined products from New York to Montreal. But after loading in New York, neither Montreal nor New York will accept it. Link here.

Just how bad is it when your economy (GDP) contracts by 35% annualized? Link here. 

Russia is imploding: death by a thousand cuts.

• Goldman Sachs: first major Wall Street bank to pull out of Russia. March 10, 2022.
  
• American Express pulls out, March 6, 2022.
• both MasterCard and Visa close operations in Russia; simultaneously. March 5, 2022
  
• the West is out to destroy Russia's economy; some think the West will succeed; me? I know it will.
• Russia's economy will die by a thousand cuts
• recovery will take a decade and a new leader
  
• holy mackerel: shipping lines Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd, and Ocean Network Express -- which together make up half of the world's container shipping capacity -- have suspended service to Russia.
  
• Russia-backed cable news station RT America shuts down; link to CNBC.
  
• Par Pacific to suspend purchases of Russian crude for Hawaii refinery. Link here or go direct to Reuters.
  
• Sabre Corp -- software giant that pretty much sells seats for all airlines -- ends service with Russia's Aeroflot; will cripple the airline's ability to sell seats
  
• US hits Russian oil refining sector; slaps export curbs on Belarus
• buyers shun Black Sea loadings;
• India will take Russian oil only once it has arrived at port and ready for unloading;
  
• Superyachts owned by oligarchs being seized: France first to seize one; I believe a second one has been seized.
  
• compared to what the G-7 has in store for Russia, the oil story will merit barely a footnote.
• UK bans Aeroflot. 
• Russian shares on London exchange now collapsing; trading now suspended. 
• IKEA: shuts down all retail outlets in Russia; apparently IKEA's biggest market is Russia (needs to be fact-checked) -- see comments. A huge thank you to the reader for looking this up.
  
• Volkswagen suspends business in Russia; shuts production at two Russian factories; halts exports to Russia;
  

Countries that have taken action against Russia: March 3, 2022. 

March 3, 2022: combatants agree to free passage for non-combatants. Fight to the death. Race against time for Putin. Ten days. That's all the time he has.