Wednesday, June 2, 2021

WTI Trending Toward $70 -- Active Rigs At 20 -- June 2, 2021

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AMC: doubled today, after an already incredible run. This tells me one thing: this market is different. Once something starts to move, all bets are off. I don't know what the free cash flow for AMC will be this year as we "return" to normal, but if WTI/Brent trend toward $75 / $80, we're going to see some "pops" in oil companies that will shock everyone ... except those paying attention.

Exhibit A:

  • CVX: up 1.34%; up $1.43; closed at $108;
  • COP: at 1.24%; up 72 cents; closed at $59;
  • OKE: up 0.9%; up 48 cents; closed at $54.25:
  • APA: up 2%; up 46 cents; closed at $23.52;
  • DVN: up 2%; up 60 cents; closed at $30.80
  • MNRL: up 0.26%; up 5 cents; closed at $18.94

Exciting: personally, two companies excite me --

Others that deserve comment:

  • Nvidia: up 3%; up $20; closed at $671;
  • AMD: up 1.44%; up $1.16; closed at $82;
  • XLNX: up 1%; up $1.21; closed at $129;

**************************************
Back to the Bakken

Brent: $71.20.

Active rigs:

$68.83
6/2/202106/02/202006/02/201906/02/201806/02/2017
Active Rigs2011646050

No new permits.

MRO reports a nice well:

  • 37251, 4,438, MRO, McGowan 11-2H, Killdeer, t12/20; cum 163K 4/21; this well is tracked here as well as some interesting observations regarding this well.
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20213027713277262752827990260060
BAKKEN3-202131283242833336196242252211393
BAKKEN2-20212826976270924119126111193654831
BAKKEN1-20213130427303395140929472216685655
BAKKEN12-202029496104919110120342426334285583
BAKKEN11-2020200454000

8 comments:

  1. Two poll suggestions.

    1: what year will we se $50 dollar oil again?

    2. What month will see $80 dollar oil, I’m thinking august.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I’ll try doing the polls again. The app I was using disappeared.

      I think you are correct. August, 2021: $82 Brent; $80 WTI. It’s a fool’s errand to try to predict oil, but what the heck?

      I’ll come back to the $50 oil question later.

      Delete
  2. $50 oil? 2025 sometime after republican president is elected.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Good point. No telling where the economy/inflation will be by then

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Over on social medial (twitter) today, they're talking about the need for $100-oil now to encourage huge off-shore CAPEX to prevent $300-oil later. That seems to be a bit of hyperbole but that's what some twit is tweeting.

      I think they said something similar just before the Bakken shale revolution.

      Delete
  4. As they say, twits will be twits

    ReplyDelete

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