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AMC: doubled today, after an already incredible run. This tells me one thing: this market is different. Once something starts to move, all bets are off. I don't know what the free cash flow for AMC will be this year as we "return" to normal, but if WTI/Brent trend toward $75 / $80, we're going to see some "pops" in oil companies that will shock everyone ... except those paying attention.
Exhibit A:
- CVX: up 1.34%; up $1.43; closed at $108;
- COP: at 1.24%; up 72 cents; closed at $59;
- OKE: up 0.9%; up 48 cents; closed at $54.25:
- APA: up 2%; up 46 cents; closed at $23.52;
- DVN: up 2%; up 60 cents; closed at $30.80
- MNRL: up 0.26%; up 5 cents; closed at $18.94
Exciting: personally, two companies excite me --
- DEN: see earlier post;
- Warner Brothers Discovery -- this could be big
Others that deserve comment:
- Nvidia: up 3%; up $20; closed at $671;
- AMD: up 1.44%; up $1.16; closed at $82;
- XLNX: up 1%; up $1.21; closed at $129;
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Back to the Bakken
Brent: $71.20.
Active rigs:
| $68.83 | 6/2/2021 | 06/02/2020 | 06/02/2019 | 06/02/2018 | 06/02/2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Active Rigs | 20 | 11 | 64 | 60 | 50 |
No new permits.
MRO reports a nice well:
- 37251, 4,438, MRO, McGowan 11-2H, Killdeer, t12/20; cum 163K 4/21; this well is tracked here as well as some interesting observations regarding this well.
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 4-2021 | 30 | 27713 | 27726 | 27528 | 27990 | 26006 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2021 | 31 | 28324 | 28333 | 36196 | 24225 | 22113 | 93 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2021 | 28 | 26976 | 27092 | 41191 | 26111 | 19365 | 4831 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2021 | 31 | 30427 | 30339 | 51409 | 29472 | 21668 | 5655 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2020 | 29 | 49610 | 49191 | 101203 | 42426 | 33428 | 5583 |
| BAKKEN | 11-2020 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 454 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Two poll suggestions.
ReplyDelete1: what year will we se $50 dollar oil again?
2. What month will see $80 dollar oil, I’m thinking august.
I’ll try doing the polls again. The app I was using disappeared.
DeleteI think you are correct. August, 2021: $82 Brent; $80 WTI. It’s a fool’s errand to try to predict oil, but what the heck?
I’ll come back to the $50 oil question later.
$50 oil? 2025 sometime after republican president is elected.
ReplyDeleteIn today's dollars?
DeleteGood point. No telling where the economy/inflation will be by then
ReplyDeleteOver on social medial (twitter) today, they're talking about the need for $100-oil now to encourage huge off-shore CAPEX to prevent $300-oil later. That seems to be a bit of hyperbole but that's what some twit is tweeting.
DeleteI think they said something similar just before the Bakken shale revolution.
As they say, twits will be twits
ReplyDeleteAgree completely.
Delete