Sunday, March 14, 2021

Vaccine Rollout -- A Snapshot In Time -- Sunday, March 14, 2021

Update

March 15, 2021: it turns out there are already stories of vaccine being wasted; folks not showing up for their vaccinations, etc. Link here. 

Even as vaccine manufacturing ramps up, with President Joe Biden promising enough vaccines for all Americans by May, the chaotic rollout, paired with vaccine hesitancy, has created an unequal supply-and-demand equation around the country.

Missed vaccine appointments have resulted in some leftover COVID-19 vaccine doses being available at the end of the day and in some cases being dumped when the vaccines expire.

Later, 10:57 p.m. CT: after posting the note below, I found this article over at The WSJ: vaccine-appointment sites rush to fix glitches, expand capacity as rollout gathers steam. Website administrators are tackling things like confusing interfaces and pages prone to dropping information and freezing. Link here. Tea leaves: next month we're going to have stories on unused vaccine being thrown out at the end of the day.

Original Post 

Vaccine rollout:



A

B

C

D

E

F




Total Doses Administered

Number of People Receiving 1 Or More Doses

Number of People Receiving 2 Doses

Number of People Considered Fully Immunized

Delta: Difference in daily doses from previous day

Percent (B+C)/A

Percent Of Americans With 2 Doses

Sunday

March 14, 2021

107,060,274

69,784,210

37,459,269


1,356,773.00

100.17%

14.61%

Saturday   

March 13, 2021

105,703,501

68,884,011

36,929,777


4,575,496.00

100.10%

14.41%

Friday 

March 12, 2021

101,128,005

65,965,305

35,000,159


2,924,112.00

99.84%

13.65%

Thursday

March 11, 2021

98,203,893

64,071,674

33,863,127


2,482,603.00

99.73%

13.21%

Wednesday 

March 10, 2021

95,721,290

62,451,150

32,904,161


2,028,692.00

99.62%

12.84%

Tuesday

March 9, 2021

93,692,598

61,088,527

32,102,061


1,602,746.00

99.46%

12.52%

Monday 

March 8, 2021

92,089,852

60,005,231

31,493,040


1,738,102.00

99.36%

12.29%

Sunday

March 7, 2021

90,351,750

58,873,710

30,686,881


2,439,427.00

99.12%

11.97%

Saturday 

March 6, 2021

87,912,323

57,358,849

29,776,160


2,904,229.00

99.12%

11.62%

Friday

March 5, 2021

85,008,094

55,547,697

28,701,201


2,233,810.00

99.11%

11.20%

Thursday

March 4, 2021

82,774,284

54,201,638

27,829,503


2,233,810.00

99.10%

10.86%

Wednesday 

March 3, 2021

80,540,474

52,855,579

26,957,804


1,908,873.00

99.10%

10.52%

Tuesday

March 2, 2021

78,631,601

51,755,447

26,162,122


1,731,614.00

99.09%

10.21%

Monday 

March 1, 2021

76,899,987

50,732,997

25,466,405


1,663,984.00

99.09%

9.94%

Sunday

February 28, 2021

75,236,003

49,772,180

24,779,920


2,429,823.00

99.09%

9.67%

I love these science experiments. I love correlating human behavior with actual data. 

So, here we go.

Look at the seventh column, three data points are in bold red.

  • Sunday (data for Saturday) two weeks ago: 2.430 million received their first vaccination.
  • Sunday (data for Saturday) one week ago: 2.439 million received their first vaccination.
  • Sunday (data for Saturday) today: 1.357 million received their first vaccination.

I chose Saturday data (reporting Sunday) because that seemed a day that would be easiest for most folks to get to their vaccination centers; that may or may not be accurate, but at least we're looking at the "same" day of the week.

Thoughts?

The fact that there was a huge jump yesterday (Friday data, reported Saturday) may have affected the most recent data.

Now, look at the last column.

At the beginning of the rollout, the percent of Americans receiving the vaccination was increasing at 0.2% day-over-day. Then it went to 0.3% where it stayed for quite some time. 

Then it peaked at 0.4%. In fact, most recently, it was high as 0.8%. But in the last twenty-four hours, the number went to 0.2%. 

That's a snapshot in time. 

Thoughts?

I will come back to this a week from now when we have another week of data. I think that's all I will need.

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