Wednesday, July 22, 2020

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- July 22, 2020

North Dakota land quarterly lease, July 28, tracts, at this pdf. Link to "ND mineral auctions" here.

Legacy fund, monthly deposit for July, 2020, posted at this link.


EIA weekly petroleum report at this pdf. Later: with regard to the crude oil inventory, see the comments below.
  • weekly US crude oil supply increased by another eye-brow-raising 4.9 million bbls;
  • weekly US crude oil supply now at a whopping 19% greater than the already fat-five-year average; wow;
  • crude oil imports average 5.9 million bopd last week, up by 373,000 thousand (sic) -- obviously a mistake -- the US is not importing 373 million bopd -- bopd from the previous week
  • US crude oil imports averaged about 6.2 million bopd, 13.5% less than the same four-week period last year;
  • refineries are operating at 77.9% of their operable capacity -- pretty much unchanged for the past several weeks;
  • jet fuel delivered was down 47.7% compared with same four-week period last year
From the US government's EIA:


Crude oil inventory:
Week
Date of Report=
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 71
April 8, 2020
15.2
484.4
Week 72
April 15, 2020
19.2
503.6
Week 72
April 22, 2020
15.0
518.6
Week 73
April 29, 2020
9.0
527.6
Week 74
May 6, 2020
4.6
532.2
Week 75
May 13, 2020
-0.7
531.5
Week 76
May 20, 2020
-5.0
526.5
Week 77
May 28, 2020
7.9
534.4
Week 78
June 3, 2020
-2.1
532.3
Week 79
June 10, 2020
5.7
538.1
Week 80
June 17, 2020
1.2
539.3
Week 81
June 24, 2020
1.4
540.7
Week 82
July 1, 2020
-7.2
533.5
Week 83
July 8, 2020
5.7
539.2
Week 84
July 15, 2020
-7.5
531.7
Week 85
July 22, 2020
4.9
536.6

Crude oil imports:
Crude Oil Imports




Week (week-over-week)
Date of Report
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Change (millions of bbls)
Four-week period comparison
Week 0
March 11, 2029
6.4
0.174

Week 1
March 18, 2020
6.5
0.127

Week 2
March 25, 2020
6.1
-0.422

Week 3
April 1, 2020
6.0
-0.070

Week 4
April 8, 2020
5.9
-0.173

Week 5
April 15, 2020
5.7
-0.194

Week 6
April 22, 2020
5.6
-0.700

Week 7
April 29, 2020
5.3
0.365
-19.700%
Week 8
May 6, 2020
5.7
0.410

Week 9
May 13, 2020
5.4
-0.321
-26.100%
Week 10
May 20, 2020
5.2
-0.194

Week 11
May 28, 2020
7.2
2.000
-16.400%
Week 12
June 3, 2020
6.2
-1.000
-18.300%
Week 13
June 10, 2020
6.4
0.000
-13.300%
Week 14
June 17, 2020
6.6
-0.222
-10.000%
Week 15
June 24, 2020
6.5
-0.102
-11.600%
Week 16
July 1, 2020
6.5
-0.600
-11.300%
Week 17
July 8, 2020
7.4
1.400
-8.500%
Week 18
July 15, 2020
7.5
-1.800
-10.200%
Week 19
July 22, 2020
5.9
0.373
-13.500%

Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week


Week
Date of Report
Change
Week 0
3/7/2020
-12.80%
Week 1
3/14/2020
-12.60%
Week 2
3/21/2020
-8.90%
Week 3
3/28/2020
-16.40%
Week 4
4/4/2020
-0.22%
Week 5
4/11/2020
-39.70%
Week 6
4/18/2020
-53.60%
Week 7
4/24/2020
-61.60%
Week 8
5/1/2020
-66.60%
Week 9
5/8/2020
-68.50%
Week 10
5/15/2020
-67.90%
Week 11
May 22, 2020
-66.60%
Week 12
June 3, 2020
-68.70%
Week 13
June 10, 2020
-63.70%
Week 14
June 17, 2020
-62.30%
Week 15
June 24, 2020
-62.50%
Week 16
July 1, 2020
-60.00%
Week 17
July 8, 2020
-57.20%
Week 18
July 15, 2020
-51.90%
Week 91
July 22, 2020
-47.70%

6 comments:

  1. i'm including a brief editorial snark in my take of this week's data..

    to account for the disparity between this weeks apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a (+857,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet to make the reported data for the average daily supply of oil and the data for the average daily consumption of it balance out, essentially a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as "unaccounted for crude oil"....that followed the insertion of a (-768,000) barrel per day figure into last week's balance sheet, when there was a supply surplus of 768,000 barrels per day, and hence from last week to this week the the EIA's fudge factor swung by a total of 1,625,000 barrels per day, thus rendering all the week over week oil supply & demand comparisons statistical nonsense....


    now, i have to admit i hadn't seen that 373,000 thousand import increase figure...that might make a difference

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Always trying to help ... LOL.

      That's a pretty huge swing .. 1.6 million bopd. More than the entire Bakken production on a daily basis.

      Delete
    2. as i've mentioned, my best guess is that the weekly production figures have been wrong...the data suggests production might have fallen to around 10 million barrels per day or lower at the bottom, and may have rebounded to maybe 11.8 million bpd by this week...trouble is, since it's in the middle of July, we'll never know, because the confirmed monthly figures will reflect the average over the month, which would be close to the 11K they've been printing every week..

      Delete
    3. With so much oil in storage and OPEC relaxing production cuts, I don't see how "we" reduce the glut any time soon.

      Delete
    4. actually, OPEC is projecting a big jump in demand in the 3rd quarter, over 10 million bpd, enough to cover the glut plus their increase...see the total world line on this table:
      https://rjsigmund.files.wordpress.com/2020/07/june2020opecreportglobaloildemand.jpg

      most of the middle east uses oil for electricity, and they use a lot of it in the summer - the AC penetration in the Arab world compares to ours...of course, the virus is still the wild card, and their demand estimate suggests they think it already peaked...

      Delete
    5. Saudi Arabia is certainly counting on this -- demand to get them out of trouble, but I will be impressed if the US inventory falls significantly by the end of the year.

      Delete

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