Legacy fund, monthly deposit for July, 2020, posted at this link.
EIA weekly petroleum report at this pdf. Later: with regard to the crude oil inventory, see the comments below.
- weekly US crude oil supply increased by another eye-brow-raising 4.9 million bbls;
- weekly US crude oil supply now at a whopping 19% greater than the already fat-five-year average; wow;
- crude oil imports average 5.9 million bopd last week, up by 373,000 thousand (sic) -- obviously a mistake -- the US is not importing 373 million bopd -- bopd from the previous week
- US crude oil imports averaged about 6.2 million bopd, 13.5% less than the same four-week period last year;
- refineries are operating at 77.9% of their operable capacity -- pretty much unchanged for the past several weeks;
- jet fuel delivered was down 47.7% compared with same four-week period last year
Crude oil inventory:
Week
|
Date of Report=
|
Change
|
Million Bbls Storage
|
Week 0
|
November 21, 2018
|
4.9
|
446.9
|
Week 1
|
November 28, 2018
|
3.6
|
450.5
|
Week 2
|
December 6, 2018
|
-7.3
|
443.2
|
Week 3
|
December 12, 2018
|
-1.2
|
442.0
|
Week 4
|
December 19, 2018
|
-0.5
|
441.5
|
Week 5
|
December 28, 2018
|
0.0
|
441.4
|
Week 71
|
April 8, 2020
|
15.2
|
484.4
|
Week 72
|
April 15, 2020
|
19.2
|
503.6
|
Week 72
|
April 22, 2020
|
15.0
|
518.6
|
Week 73
|
April 29, 2020
|
9.0
|
527.6
|
Week 74
|
May 6, 2020
|
4.6
|
532.2
|
Week 75
|
May 13, 2020
|
-0.7
|
531.5
|
Week 76
|
May 20, 2020
|
-5.0
|
526.5
|
Week 77
|
May 28, 2020
|
7.9
|
534.4
|
Week 78
|
June 3, 2020
|
-2.1
|
532.3
|
Week 79
|
June 10, 2020
|
5.7
|
538.1
|
Week 80
|
June 17, 2020
|
1.2
|
539.3
|
Week 81
|
June 24, 2020
|
1.4
|
540.7
|
Week 82
|
July 1, 2020
|
-7.2
|
533.5
|
Week 83
|
July 8, 2020
|
5.7
|
539.2
|
Week 84
|
July 15, 2020
|
-7.5
|
531.7
|
Week 85
|
July 22, 2020
|
4.9
|
536.6
|
Crude oil imports:
Crude Oil Imports
|
||||
Week (week-over-week)
|
Date of Report
|
Raw Data, millions of bbls
|
Change (millions of bbls)
|
Four-week period comparison
|
Week 0
|
March 11, 2029
|
6.4
|
0.174
|
|
Week 1
|
March 18, 2020
|
6.5
|
0.127
|
|
Week 2
|
March 25, 2020
|
6.1
|
-0.422
|
|
Week 3
|
April 1, 2020
|
6.0
|
-0.070
|
|
Week 4
|
April 8, 2020
|
5.9
|
-0.173
|
|
Week 5
|
April 15, 2020
|
5.7
|
-0.194
|
|
Week 6
|
April 22, 2020
|
5.6
|
-0.700
|
|
Week 7
|
April 29, 2020
|
5.3
|
0.365
|
-19.700%
|
Week 8
|
May 6, 2020
|
5.7
|
0.410
|
|
Week 9
|
May 13, 2020
|
5.4
|
-0.321
|
-26.100%
|
Week 10
|
May 20, 2020
|
5.2
|
-0.194
|
|
Week 11
|
May 28, 2020
|
7.2
|
2.000
|
-16.400%
|
Week 12
|
June 3, 2020
|
6.2
|
-1.000
|
-18.300%
|
Week 13
|
June 10, 2020
|
6.4
|
0.000
|
-13.300%
|
Week 14
|
June 17, 2020
|
6.6
|
-0.222
|
-10.000%
|
Week 15
|
June 24, 2020
|
6.5
|
-0.102
|
-11.600%
|
Week 16
|
July 1, 2020
|
6.5
|
-0.600
|
-11.300%
|
Week 17
|
July 8, 2020
|
7.4
|
1.400
|
-8.500%
|
Week 18
|
July 15, 2020
|
7.5
|
-1.800
|
-10.200%
|
Week 19
|
July 22, 2020
|
5.9
|
0.373
|
-13.500%
|
Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week
|
||
Week
|
Date of Report
|
Change
|
Week 0
|
3/7/2020
|
-12.80%
|
Week 1
|
3/14/2020
|
-12.60%
|
Week 2
|
3/21/2020
|
-8.90%
|
Week 3
|
3/28/2020
|
-16.40%
|
Week 4
|
4/4/2020
|
-0.22%
|
Week 5
|
4/11/2020
|
-39.70%
|
Week 6
|
4/18/2020
|
-53.60%
|
Week 7
|
4/24/2020
|
-61.60%
|
Week 8
|
5/1/2020
|
-66.60%
|
Week 9
|
5/8/2020
|
-68.50%
|
Week 10
|
5/15/2020
|
-67.90%
|
Week 11
|
May 22, 2020
|
-66.60%
|
Week 12
|
June 3, 2020
|
-68.70%
|
Week 13
|
June 10, 2020
|
-63.70%
|
Week 14
|
June 17, 2020
|
-62.30%
|
Week 15
|
June 24, 2020
|
-62.50%
|
Week 16
|
July 1, 2020
|
-60.00%
|
Week 17
|
July 8, 2020
|
-57.20%
|
Week 18
|
July 15, 2020
|
-51.90%
|
Week 91
|
July 22, 2020
|
-47.70%
|
i'm including a brief editorial snark in my take of this week's data..
ReplyDeleteto account for the disparity between this weeks apparent supply of oil and the apparent disposition of it, the EIA just inserted a (+857,000) barrel per day figure onto line 13 of the weekly U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet to make the reported data for the average daily supply of oil and the data for the average daily consumption of it balance out, essentially a fudge factor that they label in their footnotes as "unaccounted for crude oil"....that followed the insertion of a (-768,000) barrel per day figure into last week's balance sheet, when there was a supply surplus of 768,000 barrels per day, and hence from last week to this week the the EIA's fudge factor swung by a total of 1,625,000 barrels per day, thus rendering all the week over week oil supply & demand comparisons statistical nonsense....
now, i have to admit i hadn't seen that 373,000 thousand import increase figure...that might make a difference
Always trying to help ... LOL.
DeleteThat's a pretty huge swing .. 1.6 million bopd. More than the entire Bakken production on a daily basis.
as i've mentioned, my best guess is that the weekly production figures have been wrong...the data suggests production might have fallen to around 10 million barrels per day or lower at the bottom, and may have rebounded to maybe 11.8 million bpd by this week...trouble is, since it's in the middle of July, we'll never know, because the confirmed monthly figures will reflect the average over the month, which would be close to the 11K they've been printing every week..
DeleteWith so much oil in storage and OPEC relaxing production cuts, I don't see how "we" reduce the glut any time soon.
Deleteactually, OPEC is projecting a big jump in demand in the 3rd quarter, over 10 million bpd, enough to cover the glut plus their increase...see the total world line on this table:
Deletehttps://rjsigmund.files.wordpress.com/2020/07/june2020opecreportglobaloildemand.jpg
most of the middle east uses oil for electricity, and they use a lot of it in the summer - the AC penetration in the Arab world compares to ours...of course, the virus is still the wild card, and their demand estimate suggests they think it already peaked...
Saudi Arabia is certainly counting on this -- demand to get them out of trouble, but I will be impressed if the US inventory falls significantly by the end of the year.
Delete